The white man knew the writing was on the wall or maybe it was not rocket science after all.
1983-CIA Assessment: Tribal challenge to Siad
- Thread starter Riftvalley
- Start date
The white man knew the writing was on the wall or maybe it was not rocket science after all.
The war against Ethiopia wasn't rocket science; it was merely a ruse to keep everyone distracted. He needed to win desperately and, for a while, he was winning. But like a gambler who doesn't know when to stop, he eventually lost everything.
The white man knew the writing was on the wall or maybe it was not rocket science after all.
I meant their predictions on the clan opposition and what would happen if Bares continued this trajectory and the clan forces gathered momentum.
As for the Ethiopian war, Bare most likely to galvanise support….That said, the liberation of Somalis was always the popular with the masses. A few government induced famines and massacres were regularly happening under the Ethiopians prior to 77. While Somali govt were always content with supporting Somalis inside Ethiopia rather than all out war, I don’t think a Somali invasion to liberate from under a different government would have been that far fetched. Bare took a gamble, certainly, But if you think about it, had the Somalis succeeded in winning the Ogaden war, the Ethiopians would not have been able to destabilise Somalia by funding all those anti government forces in the 80s.
You are right though, better governance would have avoided most of Somalias problems. Some white guy fighting mosquitoes in Muqdisho 1983 knew that people who ran the country.
@NidarNidar
Weirdest coalition supported the first Somali rebel movements
and our Arab brother gaddafi 
Weirdest coalition supported the first Somali rebel movements
and our Arab brother gaddafi 
Barre should have played the long game. Continue supporting Somali rebels while developing the country. It worked with Eritrea after all.
Ethiopia will always be prone to instability and infighting. Despite winning in 1977, the country was still undergoing a brutal civil war throughout the 80s which eventually led to a regime collapse the same year Somalia did and lo and behold, Eritrea became independent a few years later. Even when Somalia was at its lowest point, these Ethiopians are still fighting each other so you can easily see how Barre's invasion was premature. Imagine if Somalia waited until 2020 (aka Tigray War) to invade? Ethiopia would have stood no chance.
I remember reading this, there is a bunch more in the WikiLeaks, I always hated Gaddafi now I know why.@NidarNidar
Weirdest coalition supported the first Somali rebel movements
View attachment 336464
Ashraf
🌊🐫𐒅𐒔𐒖𐒂 𐒅𐒘𐒐𐒐𐒗𐒇🇸🇴🪽
Nah the timing was right the issue was siad barre didn’t have the backing of the US they only sent defensive aid as the west wants to maintain africas borders even if they’re wrong. We would never get away with an invasion in 2020 especially one that takes 400,000km of land from another country. The west can’t allow one nation to change their borders through force or others would try as well the Cold War was the perfect time to settle border disputes as the Soviet Union was the main opposition of western hegemony now whatever the US says goes and Russia can’t do what it once could no major alternative power to aid with border disputes anew chinas foreign policy is non interventionist/ warring so you have no supply of arms even if you wanted to settle border disputes
There are many more dynamics about this, thats why I view abdullahi yusuf as a traitor. CIA has an official website where you can view everything related to somalia. Ive read a few and yea theres a reason why CIA is the best intelligence group. Imagine what their writing up right now?@NidarNidar
Weirdest coalition supported the first Somali rebel movements
View attachment 336464
Siad also was kinda crazy
Could you potentially link to where I could find this? I tried looking on google but I think you know what happened.
Its like everything that could go wrong, went wrong. I think I can place the downfall of his regime starting with the planning of the ogaden war. Instead he shouldve focused more on removing qabil elements and strengthening the country. I think he relied to much on america for protection, he mustve thought he was invincible. They will always exploit clan weaknesses, You even hear about libya of all countries meddling in the affairs. It couldve been way worse though
Nah look what happened with Sudan, they ended up splitting long after the Cold War ended.
What will happen is that once Somalia become fully stable and richer, the Somalis in Ethiopia will eventually want to join with Somalia since they will be poorer and treated worse in that country than in Somalia. There will be another insurgency and Ethiopia will naturally commit war crimes to surpress it. Somalia cannot ignore such acts and will invade under the pretense of helping those Somalis. The west will see that Somalia is in the right and support us since Ethiopia will be doing henious acts.
Thing is, in anticipation of the war with Ethiopia Afweyne armed the border clans, in doing so he unleashed a chain reaction which prompt interior clans to also arm themselves in equilibrium. After losing the war he become unpopular and armed more of his own loyal supporters. The eariler flood of arms was then used by rebel groups later to fight his MOD regime. It spectacularly backfired in his face.
WSLF selling guns Siad gave them to SNM/SSDF /proto-USC as being the primary source of guns atleast during this stage is interesting. The definition of thinking with your stomach.
Ashraf
🌊🐫𐒅𐒔𐒖𐒂 𐒅𐒘𐒐𐒐𐒗𐒇🇸🇴🪽
I don’t think they’d support us but they wouldn’t sanction us
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