Abdirahman Shakur Is He Another Abdillahi Yusuf?

[DR OSMAN]

This his book that's out about Somali Political history.


It's amazing what he said here about Somali predictable politics that anyone can see coming before they even make a move.


He is right in politics you do need to know some basics such as mutual interest that's all somali know by the bulk majority such as transactional things.

They all report on this nation and that nation did a trade off on money or resource deal or military.

That's known as transactional interests and is considered the lowest form of politics wa markadan qorshe fog kale lahayn ayaa la gala this game.

They don't even know long term vs short term goals, all short term goals report to long term interest called legacies. Sometimes it can't be done by one person but by successive leaders who carry on the torch.

They dont know the key difference between ally vs a partner and even partners are ranked on how long their partnership has existed and how stable it was.

It's when your just called as foreign short term interest meets local interest, this is the lowest category as once the interest is gone so is the relationship and interests don't last long and is transitional and switch.

They don't even set up a strategy, tactics used and supplied by Intel from intelligence both local and foreign, they don't set up a equation for calculation on moves made vs returns gained in the equation.

They don't see the world as spheres of influence even such as cultural, geographical or continental, regional, political, historical, religious, security, economical, and set up equations and heirachies thru them all and develop a long term strategy how they navigate it to reach levels of long term partnerships or preferably alliances or allies.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I don't know but I've always miscalculated nomadic people before and generally the uneducated as they tend to leave the lasting legacies like syl were uneducated, meles zenawi was, abdillahi was, same with siyad.

The educated don't leave behind nothing so I'm not banking on them anymore, my dad made that mistake he said look for the uneducated as they haven't been poison thru modern schooling yet.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I think it was intentional to remove siyad elites cause their now left with second rate garbage which the continent will be like this a field day, their dummies rule them not their best talent.

 

[DR OSMAN]

We saw lucky tho we had access to great minds in china thru Somali embassy there, plus siyad barre who he himself set up the people for long term goals not short term transactional shit that disappears tommorow.

They even offered my dad to stay in china the elites then and not needing no citizenship, we couldve been china long term africa merging i think, cause they knew he understood the game. They wanted Somalia to be regional and continental boss of Africa back then anyways.

 

[DR OSMAN]

My dad did tell China diplomats back then the truth, u can't develop like this controlling the market just control the politics, and have it report to your leaders.

They even set up ensuring 50% of all International investment needs to be half chinese half international the Chinese so they built up their capitalist class who are obedient to their leaders never coming against them. The west thought they can use their capitalist to chokehold them, their decades behind China in politics.

My dad even told them but u guys never create anything just copy n paste what's done, they told him too much money wasted on research and let the others do it and they just steal it later. My dad was stunned how shrewd they are but he did compliment them always on their political elites and their business savviness.

 

[TheLand]

Does Ina Muxibo Tooxow talk about the sea he sold to Kenya in his book?

 

[DR OSMAN]

Does Ina Muxibo Tooxow talk about the sea he sold to Kenya in his book?

I think the uneducated are unpredictable and why the world fears trump. Where as educated u can see his early upbringing, influences, where he studied and u can generally calculate what their bringing, with the uneducated it's you can't calculate it.

Trump only exposure is his a business person so they kinda know business people think and what's guiding them and possible moves they make, unless he flips that business hat off, which is unlikely. He needs to get raw Intel not Intel he likes or dislikes, listen to experts but only keep it as one option, have other unknown sources as options which many really do look back cultural systems and history. No jokes some even go and look at animal world for inspiration.

Jan 20 will tell us if trump falls to ankle biting like first term which is used as jambals to stall him cause he has an exposed ego niyahow and hope he gets nothing done.

Every man who leads needs to face his personal demons, history, mistakes and be comfortable with it and look yourself in the mirror and say noone is perfect and I made choices and some were bad but I moved on, if trump reaches such level, his dangerous as they can't poke his ego anymore. Either way he ain't coming back after this run, if he just goes down to ego shit he will be in his death bed about what ifs and what if I did this and that.

So far the liberals there r rite his down to transactional shit like business person and naming ppl who scratched his back in time of need and loyalty, that's also says alot about what his future moves are. Its going be a boring 4 years of go n back and anklebiting and nothing done or at least nothing that lasts after the next govt removes it. My dad said china is laughing he knew the old elites their now consulting the best business ppl and saying we got trump transactional guy like you, tell us moves to defeat him.

Everyone noone remembers business as usual, mud slinging, transactional type of presidents, every president is remembered on legacies nothing more nothing less.

 

[TheLand]

What do you think of Yusra strategy of copying bani israel? Bani Israel climbed mount Sinai and then they inherited the land of Israel as they believe. Yusra climbed mount gacan libaax and now they think they inherited all SL or waqooyi galbeed. It seems this clever strategy has worked well for them. They have turned the rest of the isaaq into falastin as a result and that is why they are now crying Somali weyn. Do you think yahuud thinking and strategy can work well politically in Somalia?

 

[DR OSMAN]

What do you think of Yusra strategy of copying bani israel? Bani Israel climbed mount Sinai and then they inherited the land of Israel as they believe. Yusra climbed mount gacan libaax and now they think they inherited all SL or waqooyi galbeed. It seems this clever strategy has worked well for them. They have turned the rest of the isaaq into falastin as a result and that is why they are now crying Somali weyn. Do you think yahuud thinking and strategy can work well politically in Somalia?

For Whatever reason I'll let historians in PL debate it because we weren't there in 98, we were in hamar holding talks with general caare and abdiqaybdiid in private.

But what I do know is PL guiding pillar is help yourselves and translate that to help all Somalis recover.

Koley qorshaha dasturkina sounds noble and their is some evidence they did such thing with establishing federal govt in Mogadishu and building up PL, so it can play its role as an example for all Somalis.

One thing we would've added if we were there, it's better to say we will help ourselves and wait till the south resolves it's issue.

They added that clause also but its not a pillar but a Plan B if the south is unresolvable and extends into eternity. U don't just interfere in Somali regions like that and bringing the federal govt in hamar which just escalates the issue, we would've told abdillahi if we were there that your not helping but harming, they have an unresolvable 4 month war of the best of their ppl killed with 10 cent bullets.

We would've said to him PL dhista and leave a clause that we will wait for the Sourh markay arintooda gudahooda xaliyan waba hadi la xalin karo which me and my dad believe it's unresolvable and will last into eternity.

 

[DR OSMAN]

My dad regrets not listening to his ambassador who was isaaq and cidagale, cut your losses, focus on your land and pray for hamar and keep them in your prayers.

But no, he went to Somalia, hamar, worked as many local siyad elites remaining who haven't fallen in the 4 month war and even they told him just go home, hamar will never resolve there is deeper issue between abgaal and hg over 4 month war.

Cidagale ambassador was right wejiyo kala duwan mooye iyo shatiyo la soo gaashto hamar meel kale ay uu socoto ma jirto, darod enemy, isaaq enemy, shabab enemy, ethio enemy, and it will continue into eternity he said.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@TheLand

One edge really developed Somalis is their global footprint, a diaspora need always be apart of a presidential team of historians, intelligence, diaspora, and diplomats who can glaze over the world for Somali identified goals vs the global partners who can help us reach it while utilising diaspora in each country to understand how things works there at a cultural(rural values) and political elites who are just holding the same mentality in urban settings..Rural area is the soul of a country, if u don't understand it, u won't understand their leaders.

It's about understanding their political goals their own equations and their rural soul vs your equations vs your rural soul, it's a mix of policy goals vs chemistry which is rural soul being used.

We need a equation set up that all leaders follow, doesn't matter who his president, The torch carries on following the equation.

1. Economic development and investment, economists team are told to identify what is valuable investment, how do we develop a strong capitalist elite thru 50/50 ownership at all times so Somali wallet grow.

2. Security interests. Whose a military partner who can help us with short term arms but in the long term we want knowledge transfer so we don't need to rely on military trade.

3. Human capital development source countries who can equip our locals with the skills needed either locally or abroad. Preferably locally it's cheaper importing teachers then exporting students.

4. How to expand our influence later into Africa and help some global power that we will be their continental sheriff.

5. Divide the world into spheres of influence whether it's inputs they give us for our equation vs outputs we give them to address their equation. The spheres are simple it's security, economic, cultural, religious, geographical, regional. They need to be ranked who delivers best results only for our own country political equation, no other preferences.

6. Utilise diaspora in each country, get them to study their rural.values so we can use that in building up trust and chemistry at a human level while we need our intelligence officers and diplomats knowing their political goals and equation.

7. Branding and Creating Images, using internet to tweak search result ppl get globally, study China internet also which is separate also.

All the equation is need scores and ranking across the globe nothing else, there is nothing personal in the world, it's a calculated politics and everyone pursues what advantageous to their national goals.

 

[Tiyeglow]

How can two things both be true:

- MSB, who led the Xamar centralisation mission for 20+ years, is a great leader/visionary
- Every nation should have divested from Xamar and gone to our own lands long before.

But had MSB stayed it would have been Xamar centralisation for even longer…

Supporting MSB in 2024 comes with all types of cognitive dissonances

He genuinely is our Trump. Never mistake what is done by incompetence as malice - Hanlon’s razor. He was a confused man, I realised when I read that he try cut a deal with MJ in the 11th hour before the coup (which I would have warmly welcomed and accepted ofc), however his policies were malicious imo it was just incompetent which eventually led to turmoil

 

[DR OSMAN]

How can two things both be true:

- MSB, who led the Xamar centralisation mission for 20+ years, is a great leader/visionary
- Every nation should have divested from Xamar and gone to our own lands long before.

But had MSB stayed it would have been Xamar centralisation for even longer…

Supporting MSB in 2024 comes with all types of cognitive dissonances

He genuinely is our Trump. Never mistake what is done by incompetence as malice - Hanlon’s razor. He was a confused man, I realised when I read that he try cut a deal with MJ in the 11th hour before the coup (which I would have warmly welcomed and accepted ofc), however his policies were malicious imo it was just incompetent which eventually led to turmoil

For whatever siyad is accused of, he had his positives and negatives, where as post 91 to 2024 it's nothing but negatives, to then put him into the same category is cognitive dissonance of the worst order. Positive vs Negative generally ends in Zero, but it sure better then negatives and minuses below zero which is what i see post 1991 to 2024, except that remarkable abdillahi yusuf who started in the same negatives but changed it to zero and left behind PL and the federal govt.

Everyone post him has been in the negatives and not much real changing chapters or.legacy work, just alot of personal or transactional type of leaders who also work in grander goals and ideas like centralism, secession, irirism but they never really make big moves towards those strategical objectives and usually finish their term being remembered as a major time waste and personal interest leader.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@TheLand

The world does support Darod policy of federation along clan lines, its a win win in a stalemate which they know won't change due to UN Embargo but even if lifted, they know all sides will upgrade with foreign allies.

They tell us tho our patience is running out it's 2024 and since 2004 and may see it it as unworkable which is what shabab, icu, centralist and secessionist want so it can switch to either centralism, secession and north and south federation between Mogadishu and Hargeisa, which is 2 towns ruling 90 towns as their plan b if they cant get along on centralism and secession.

The world knows its the best solution in Somalia a federal deal but they also look at on ground realities and don't like investing in something with no positive return.

Listen they don't really care what system comes from within Somalia the west, as long as it represent all Somalis as a whole not a single clan or region, they see that as zero sum shit with no long term benefit which is what harms isaaq secessionist and hawiye centralist and Djibouti leader saying heeshin maysan let me work set up the plan b irir federation which started in carta 2000 thru 4.5.

Their not interested in blame game, pointing fingers at not genuine actors, they just look at the investment they put in vs on ground results.

We need to convince hawiye and isaaq people, Clan Federalism works for all unlike hawiye clan centralism 1 town ruling 92 or secession 1 town ruling 6 towns or irir federation 2 towns ruling 90. Surely these ppl need to nudge on some bloody reason but nope, u just see the same madness year to year and decade to decade.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Qoslaya had same vision but he changed when elected.