The FGS is not ready and has asked for AMISOM extensions past the December 31 deadline that HSM said they would leave by. Shabaab harass them near Jazeera beach and Balcad in lightning attacks. The towns and villages captured in the "first phase" in Galmudug have been re-captured by Shabaab. Shabaab's takeover of the south is sure to happen and many have come to terms with it. US withdrawal will only hasten the process. We will see high profile defections to Shabaab in the next few months.