Al Shabab: Not a Legitimate Threat to All of Somalia

[Marsh]

In a post-AMISOM world, Al Shabab would face the same challenges the FGS is facing today. Somalia’s landmass is nearly twice the size of Germany’s, making it impossible to control with only 7,000 to 12,000 troops. Also, they lack overwhelming numbers compared to clan militias. SSC had around 7,000 to 8,000 troops in the Las Anod conflict. Other clans would be able to field even larger numbers, for comparison the Taliban had 75,000 members when it took over. How could Al Shabab possibly conquer all of southern Somalia, hold Mogadishu, and attempt to seize Puntland?

 

[Bari]

In a post-AMISOM world, Al Shabab would face the same challenges the FGS is facing today. Somalia’s landmass is nearly twice the size of Germany’s, making it impossible to control with only 7,000 to 12,000 troops. Also, they lack overwhelming numbers compared to clan militias. SSC had around 7,000 to 8,000 troops in the Las Anod conflict. Other clans would be able to field even larger numbers, for comparison the Taliban had 75,000 members when it took over. How could Al Shabab possibly conquer all of southern Somalia, hold Mogadishu, and attempt to seize Puntland?

Weird arguement, they had way more soldiers when the south was theirs in the late 2000s, if Xamar falls they'll get huge tax revenue and they'll get recruits. Even if peoples views dont align with AS they'll join purely based upon the financial incentives. Wadankeenu baahi baa ka jidha and AS are likely to captilise on that to get further soldiers and attempt further conquests. Things happen in stages, it starts slow and then starts to snowball.

 

[Aurelian]

Weird arguement, they had way more soldiers when the south was theirs in the late 2000s, if Xamar falls they'll get huge tax revenue and they'll get recruits. Even if peoples views dont align with AS they'll join purely based upon the financial incentives. Wadankeenu baahi baa ka jidha and AS are likely to captilise on that to get further soldiers and attempt further conquests. Things happen in stages, it starts slow and then starts to snowball.

Yes, they either recruit poor people or they will indoctrinate youths and in matter of 10-15 years they will have tens of thousands of sympathizers willing to join their cause.

 

[Avalanche]

This is genuine not true. There is the possibility of governing the whole country, but it is through strict laws and iron fist. There is a reason the ICU managed to rule all of southern Somalia before its fall. If it weren't for the American overthrow, the ICU would likely control most of the country.

 

[Somali Saayid]

AS will not rule anywhere north of Guriceel and west Galkayo in GM. There are territories where they will always be AS free, namely eastern Galgaduud and North Mudug as well as all of PL, SL, SSC. Maybe the areas around Kismayo and Af Madow and the Daawa region in Gedo and perhaps Baydhabo and it's environs however the rest of SWS would most likely fall in the event of a massive AS counter offensive

 

[berberaboy66]

Nobody is scared of AS themselves it’s the weapons/intel that will be in their hands if they take over xamar that is the issue.

It’s not enough to take over the entire country but they’ll sweep through the whole of the south in less than a month. Nobody else stands a chance without foreign intervention

 

[Hurder]

It’s not enough to take over the entire country but they’ll sweep through the whole of the south in less than a month. Nobody else stands a chance without foreign intervention

The north will be conquered aswell. If US doesn’t intervene. Some of you think PL is safe. But it will be matter of when. If South gets conquered first. It will take time but it will happen theoritically

 

[Som]

The answer is quite simple. Al kebab is more unified than the FGS and will keep benefiting from internal divisions within Somalia. If government soldiers and regional forces aren't motivated or fight amongst themselves Al kebab can easily exploit this and gain territory.
AS also acts like Mafia, their level of organization is pretty much better than the FGS, they collect taxes through extortion, have tons of spies all over the country including PL and SL , they infiltrate the government on all levels from local to probably even villa somalia etc etc. Somalia should never underestimate AS . Just look at countries who had more resources, better training than the FGS like Syria (big time military tradition) and Afghanistan, they capitulated within a few weeks after losing foreign support. At this moment FGS , federal states etc don't seem willing to work together for the greater good. Everyone is focused on their tuulo , if Somalia was united form PL till JL Al kebab would be finished tomorrow morning at quraac time

 

[Removed]

Bad math.

TB ≈ 80k
Afghan National Army ≈ 300K
AS ≈ 12k
SNA ≈ 30k

Nobody measures the distance between the SNA and the Afghan Army. Afghans also had advance american weapons at its disposal and funding.

PL will not be able to counter the south if its fully absorbed. Too much manpower and domestic revenue in the south. AS can afford significantly more losses then a clan admin because it can recruit anywhere it holds.

 

[TheLand]

It’s one thing to fight urban combat style in Xamar, it’s another thing for them to come out into the open like a conventional army while trying to grab land. In that even they will be struck with drones and mowed down with Apache helicopters which they don’t have the equipment to shoot down. They will be decimated.