Even the most delusional Ethiopian nationalist understands that in a free and fair referendum, 90%+ would vote in favor of independence in the Somali region, similar to Eritrea.
Now, Ethiopian leaders would be scared this leads to a situation like Yugoslavia, where after Slovenia and Croatia declared independence, Bosnia and the rest did because they could see the writing on the wall.
So Ethiopian leaders will refuse to democratize and become a normal African country like Nigeria or Kenya because they know it 100% means atleast 1/3 of the landmass of the country leaving, with a good chance of more following.
The funny part is it's only Somalis who are 100% set on independence, Oromos, Afar, Sidama, Tigrayans, etc could have been turned into patriotic Ethiopians with enough time.
And since Ethiopia is too diverse and big to control using the barrel of the gun, thr country will basically just become like Myanmar, where you have constant insurgencies until a balkanizing event happens in a few decades.
Now, Ethiopian leaders would be scared this leads to a situation like Yugoslavia, where after Slovenia and Croatia declared independence, Bosnia and the rest did because they could see the writing on the wall.
So Ethiopian leaders will refuse to democratize and become a normal African country like Nigeria or Kenya because they know it 100% means atleast 1/3 of the landmass of the country leaving, with a good chance of more following.
The funny part is it's only Somalis who are 100% set on independence, Oromos, Afar, Sidama, Tigrayans, etc could have been turned into patriotic Ethiopians with enough time.
And since Ethiopia is too diverse and big to control using the barrel of the gun, thr country will basically just become like Myanmar, where you have constant insurgencies until a balkanizing event happens in a few decades.
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