A report on the external Arab forces but also to the processes of the local elites and the complex combinations in Somalia where the interests of the main regional and international centers of power intersect.
written by Evgeny Satanovsky, President of the Middle East Institute
(Quite accurate IMO)
written by Evgeny Satanovsky, President of the Middle East Institute
(Quite accurate IMO)
In February the probability of a military conflict between Somaliland, Puntland and the federal government of Somalia increased. The latter two forces form a military block against Hargeisa. The President of Somalia, M.A. Farmajo at the end of February approached the leader of Puntland Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas with a request to provide a contingent of troops from the enclave (three thousand men) to “strengthen the national army”. Then in a matter of a few weeks, parts of the Puntland contingent have been deployed in the rolling hills of Galkayo. According to the government, this was done to prepare for the operation against the Islamists from al-Shabab.
Farmajo’s request for three thousand troops deployed at the military base in Garowe, where Mogadishu regroups its forces, are preparing for operations in the area of Sanaag. The President of Somalia presented this as a reaction to the fighting between Somaliland and Puntland for the control over the disputed autonomous territory of Khatumo. This region is inhabited by representatives of the Dhulbahante, having traditional ties with the Marehan, the country’s President’s clan. A few months ago, in Khatumo the development of closer relations with Hargeisa, not Mogadishu and Farmajo, were voiced which dramatically exacerbated the situation. The crux of the problem is oil and the independent policy of Hargeisa, where the planned transfer of military personnel from the UAE to the former USSR naval base in Berbera.
Farmajo is making another attempt to affect it and the mobilisation of the Putland forces aims not to fight Islamists but to secure control over Khatumo. The solution of this issue means the elimination of separatism of Hargeisa in the medium term or the need to reach a compromise with the leadership of the enclave for Mogadishu. The President sent to Eastern Sanaag the Minister for Development D.M. Hasan. He must meet with emissaries of the President of Somaliland Muse Bihi Abdi. The result of these consultations will depend on whether Somaliland will go for a full deployment of troops to block the Puntland forces, which needs to come from Garowe. The UNO envoy M. Keating called for a truce, but M. Bihi refused, citing the need to protect the territorial integrity of Somaliland. There were no direct clashes between the forces of the enclaves yet.
The EU is trying to stop a military conflict. Political dialogue between Mogadishu and Hargeisa, suspended in March 2015, should resume at the end of this month in Djibouti under the mediation of President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh. As expected, the Centre of Humanitarian Risks in Geneva will play a major role in the reconciliation. President Farmajo and his colleague from Somaliland Abdi welcomed such a format, besides Switzerland, supported by Great Britain and Sweden. Similar offers of mediation from Ankara were rejected, where President Farmajo justified the unsuccessful experience of the Turks in 2015. Mogadishu does not consider Ankara as a neutral mediator. Turkey, a regional partner of the UAE, is interested in supporting Somaliland in this dispute. At the February 23 meeting with Farmajo the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey Hakan Çavuşoğlu expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that his country was excluded from the negotiations.
Experts believe that the current confrontation will not lead to a serious conflict. For Somaliland the improvement of relations with Mogadishu, undoubtedly, will allow them to overturn a ban on livestock exports to the KSA, will help reach an agreement on the allocation of the state budget revenues, receiving from the joint airspace management with Somalia, and gaining the right to issue licenses for exploration and extraction of mineral resources to international companies. Mogadishu is seeking its share of this activity and incorporation of Somaliland into the federation to monopolise foreign policy and the military development.
Let us recall that the former leadership of Somaliland for several years held talks with the UAE and France on their acquisition of the former USSR military base in Berbera. Hargeisa offered to Moscow as well, but because of a potential questionable transaction and legal risks involved in this connection, it refused. Paris missed the chance, rather, Abu Dhabi outbid former Somaliland President Silanyo, giving him several million dollars in cash and giving him and his family ownership of a mansion in the UAE and life-long services in one of the prestigious medical centres. This prompted a response from Mogadishu, where the deal was considered to be legally void due to the absence of permission from the central authorities. The topic has intensified during Farmajo’s presidency, which has enlisted tacit support from the KSA for the submitted claims to international arbitration.
It is the possibility of losing the case at the time that frightened off potential buyers. The KSA plays on Farmajo’s annoyance with Hargeisa’s independence, obstructing the UAE from increasing its influence through the construction of military bases in the Horn of Africa. The President of Somalia is pressured from all sides. In the election for financial support, he was pressured by Qatar, which explains Farmajo’s vague position in the “Arab Quartet” (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain) and Doha conflict. According to American data, the unwillingness of the Somali leader to articulate an anti-Qatari position led to the fact that Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reduced or curtailed assistance to his government. The UAE worked with unrecognised states such as Somaliland, to undermine the country’s central government and offered money to the Somali legislators for a vote of no confidence in the current ministerial cabinet.
In February, Farmajo sent emissaries to Turkey, where the leadership of the opposition and people close to former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, having managed to reach a compromise with the rotation of a number of ministers and replacing them with more acceptable expatriate faces. So the Abu Dhabi attempt to arrange in Somalia a “soft coup” has failed. However, the termination of Farmajo’s assistance from the Arabian monarchies concerns mainly Abu Dhabi. Riyadh does not limit the support of the cabinet and the President personally. The Saudis are satisfied with the attitude of the head of Somalia to neutralise the UAE’s influence in Somaliland. For this they are ready to ignore Farmajo’s contacts with Doha and press on Hargeisa.
Abu Dhabi tries to act pre-emptively. On March 1, the UAE state-owned DP Word (official buyer of the military base) announced that the Ethiopian government had acquired a 19 percent stake in the port of Berbera in Somaliland. This is a strong move involving Addis Ababa in the dispute, especially given that a number of forces in the EU lobbied by French make attempts to challenge the legality of the transaction on Berbera. It should be noted that Ethiopia considers Somaliland as its protectorate and a buffer against Islamist infiltration into the country. The US considers the deal beneficial to Addis Ababa, which is in dire need of access to seaports. This is not quite so, as it received such an exit in 2017, when the Chinese built a railway to the ports of Djibouti, albeit it does not yet work in full capacity.
However, the Somali authorities consider Somaliland as their sovereign territory and have publicly spoken out against this deal, declaring that it violates international law. In this regard, Farmajo, in addition to the external pressure exerted by his clans, is trying to play the Somali nationalism card. Fortunately he has ties with the Ogaden tribe living in both Ethiopia and Somalia, rebelling against the Ethiopian authorities (Ethiopian-Somali wars in the new era were precisely because of this). In any case, he created himself an external opponents’ front in attempts to subjugate Somaliland. How this will end, is impossible to predict.
The African specificity in general and the Somali specificity in particular, does not give grounds for optimism, either in the formation of a stable centralised government or in relation to attempts of external interference, be it the army of neighbouring countries, the African Union or the UN troops, in favour of any of the local players. History supports this. Any foreign military contingents in Somalia suffered losses and preferred to operate through local troops, limited to short-term operations when their clients were at risk of defeat, and withdrew immediately after the situation stabilised. And the Arab monarchies were no exception.
