Ethiopia cut Egypt at knees

[AbdiGeedi]

As we know Ethiopia has started filling the GERD dam. They are planning to finish filling the dam in 5-7 years.

Since the Blue Nile accounts for around 85% of Egypt's fresh water supply, Egypt is in a dire situation.

At the rate of 5-7 year filling:

1. About 20-35% of Egypt's agricultural land will dry up.

2. About 30 million people will be forced to relocate.

Considering that around 30% of Egypt's 102 million population already live below the poverty line, I think Sisi's days might be numbered as Egypt is turning into a powder keg that is about to explode.

I didn't even take into account the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Egyptian economy. It already decimated its tourism industry.

Sisi has proved himself to be an inept dictator who failed to have any sort of effect on Ethiopia's GERD plans.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Egypt had diminishing Nile water problems even before the dam filling.




Our Sudanese member @Asaana recently wrote that:

Egyptians use filthy water to grow crops. They use to get away with it in the past but now the Nile is very polluted by the time it flows to northern Egypt (the nile delta in particular is a disaster). Some of them even use sewage water to irrigate and the terrible quality shows up in the fruit and vegetables that they export.

 

[Sophisticate]

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[AbdiGeedi]

Most major Egyptian cities are located along the banks of the Nile river. and Egypt is 90% desert.

It just tells you how vital the Nile is for Egypt.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Egypt wants to invade Libya but not Ethiopia.
What an irony.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Egypt wants to invade Libya but not Ethiopia.
What an irony.

Sisi is a puppet and is doing what either Israel or Gulf monarchies tell him to do.

Egyptian military is a business entity first and only then it is armed forces.

Only a true national leader could have pro-actively solved the Nile problem for Egypt. Sisi left the issue to the last minute. It is too late now.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

You know I was thinking how Egypt could destroy the dam physically. Egypt now has SU-35 air superiority jet fighters and can easily take out the Ethiopian air defenses around the dam. Next they need to hit at the base of the dam and use the water pressure built-up at the bottom to ease the cracking. The problem is Egypt doesn't have bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate several meters into the thick concrete structure and then explode. See picture below. Very few countries make them and I don't think they are being exported.

Egypt can use conventional missiles to strike repeatedly at one point at the dam. Just like in the Korean movie "The Man From Nowhere" were the main character points his handgun at the windshield of the bulletproof car and keeps shooting at one point until he makes a hole in the glass. And then he kills the bad guy inside the car.

But then I realized Egypt is too late for the military action. Even if it succeeds in destroying the dam, the volume of the collected water will wipe out many downstream places, killing scores of civilians. No major powers would tolerate it. Sisi would never dare it.

The Habashis are playing 3D game and checkmated the dumb Arabs.

By the way, that movie puts Hollywood's "Taken" franchise into shame.

 

[Octavian]

el-sisreona is done for do u think a civil might start up any time soon

 

[AbdiGeedi]

el-sisreona is done for do u think a civil might start up any time soon

It is gonna be a while before the social unrest can start. And even if it becomes widestread, Israel and the US will provide international cover for Sisi to gun down the protesters just like it happened when Sisi came to power toppling Mursi. At the end Sisi's masters can replace him with another no-name military puppet if it becomes too costly for them to keep this clown in power.

 

[Recon Expert]

Haye are we witnessing the beginning of a second Arab spring?

 

[Octavian]

Haye are we witnessing the beginning of a second Arab spring?

yes with a possible 6 day war 2.0 edition and with a later somali expanse and turk dlc

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Haye are we witnessing the beginning of a second Arab spring?

That's the worst dream of MBS and Muhammad bin Zayed. Their pockets are ready to dole out billions for squashing the Arab Spring 2.0.

In reality, the Arab Spring season is long over and unlikely to happen again. I might be wrong though. I think Tunisia is the only Arab country that came through it as a changed democratic country.

The current situation in Lebanon is telling us a lot. It is not resonating among the greater Arab populace.

 

[mustang22]

Ethiopia is more likely to enter a civil war. Ogaden wants to rejoin with Somalia, Oromo want their own country and they have many different religions and tribes. Egypt is 90% Sunni Muslim and has a powerful military dictator in control of the whole country.

 

[purple haze]

@AbdiGeedi SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN

CIVIL war FOR ETHIOPIA OR WAR WITH EGYPT WHATS THE END GAME FOR THE REGION IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@AbdiGeedi SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN

CIVIL war FOR ETHIOPIA OR WAR WITH EGYPT WHATS THE END GAME FOR THE REGION IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS

Egypt will suck it up. Life has tendency to adapt. Egyptians will have to adapt to mitigate the changes caused by the filling phase of the GERD dam. I hope they made an agreement with the Ethiopians guaranteeing the minimum water flow rate from the dam after the dam is filled to full capacity.

The war is highly unlikely and with each passing day its minuscule probability is getting less and less. From now on Egypt and Sudan will always be at the mercy of Ethiopia.

It is best for Egypt to study Israel's success with desalination plants and drip-water agriculture. That said nothing can fully replace the Nile for Egyptian farm lands.

 

[xabashi]

Instead of hopping Ethiopia will never build a dam, Egypt should look at its neighbour and do the same.

 

[THE SOMALI POLYGLOT]

That's the worst dream of MBS and Muhammad bin Zayed. Their pockets are ready to dole out billions for squashing the Arab Spring 2.0.

In reality, the Arab Spring season is long over and unlikely to happen again. I might be wrong though. I think Tunisia is the only Arab country that came through it as a changed democratic country.

The current situation in Lebanon is telling us a lot. It is not resonating among the greater Arab populace.

View attachment 136771

The UAE and the KSA has been terrorized by the Arab spring because they knew that they will be the next, that's the reason why they hate Qatar, because Al-Jazeera was the principal vector of the uprising. By producing programs where you see some influent sheikh saying that a good Libya is a Libya with a dead Kadhafi or that the Assad family is the sheitan right arm.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

They are gonna have to use their underground water and desalinate ocean water if they can, because the dam at this point is going to be built.
Just being honest. If they attack it, it'll most likely flood everything from khartoum onwards.
Sudan will most likely not give them a base to attack ethiopia from. eritrea is a no go.
who is left?

it's also a matter of pride for ethiopia. egypt was using the nile to feed its people rice [a very water-wasting crop], and generate power for most of its peoples homes, while ethiopians starved and lived in the dark despite being able to literally stare at most of the nile's origins.
come on now. that's messed up yo!

 

[THE SOMALI POLYGLOT]

They are gonna have to use their underground water and desalinate ocean water if they can, because the dam at this point is going to be built.
Just being honest. If they attack it, it'll most likely flood everything from khartoum onwards.
Sudan will most likely not give them a base to attack ethiopia from. eritrea is a no go.
who is left?

it's also a matter of pride for ethiopia. egypt was using the nile to feed its people rice [a very water-wasting crop], and generate power for most of its peoples homes, while ethiopians starved and lived in the dark despite being able to literally stare at most of the nile's origins.
come on now. that's messed up yo!

But even if they find underground massive groundwater reserves, it will take 20 years (minimum) great infrastructure projects to build the centers/factory, the artificial rivers, and the pipelines all the way to the cities (3000 meters). It took so many years for Libya to make operational the GMR. Egypt can't afford to lose time and need a fast solution.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

But even if they find underground massive groundwater reserves, it will take 20 years (minimum) great infrastructure projects to build the centers/factory, the artificial rivers, and the pipelines all the way to the cities (3000 meters). It took so many years for Libya to make operational the GMR. Egypt can't afford to lose time and need a fast solution.

Good point sir. Well. It's tough for them, because Ethiopia has nothing to lose and everything to gain, because it has every right to use the resources in its land, and when ethiopia was starving in the 80's and in haile selassie's time, egypt didn't send as much 1 bag of wheat or rice, even though the water they use to grow food comes primarily from ethiopia's highlands?!
they were even offering to divert part of the nile to israel at one point, while telling us we cannot use it, albeit indirectly?!