Fertility rates declining across Africa

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Looks like the projection of 4 billion subsaharan Africans by 2100 will most likely never come to fruition the even crazier part is there is different fertility rates between ethnic groups which can have massive political and social implications in the future

First country Senegal TFR decline to 3.9

second country Ethiopia According to Ethiopian government Somali TFR has declined to 5.8 from 7.2 in 2016
@El Nino @GemState what do y’all think how many more decades of population growth does Africa have

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Third country Nigeria experienced decline over last half decade also regional differences as well : Lowest TFR region : Highest regions

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Sahel region countries experiencing fertility decline as well here’s Burkina Faso:

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The 2019 Somali figure in Ethiopia is an underestimate.

 

[Abaq]

The rise of C-sections plays a big part

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

The 2019 Somali figure in Ethiopia is an underestimate.

That’s what it seems like tbh I wouldn’t believe their stats regarding Somalis but I’m more surprised at the Amhara Oromo and Tigray TFR they could be hitting replacement level in 10-20 years looks like Kenya and Ethiopia are both undergoing a demographic shift

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

The rise of C-sections plays a big part

What do you mean explain ?

 

[Abaq]

What do you mean explain ?

Once a lady has a c section, it is highly unlikely she will ever have a normal delivery again. You can only have a c section a few times. A lot of hospitals and clinics push c sections as they are more profitable

 

[El Nino]

Looks like the projection of 4 billion subsaharan Africans by 2100 will most likely never come to fruition the even crazier part is there is different fertility rates between ethnic groups which can have massive political and social implications in the future

First country Senegal TFR decline to 3.9

second country Ethiopia According to Ethiopian government Somali TFR has declined to 5.8 from 7.2 in 2016
@El Nino @GemState what do y’all think how many more decades of population growth does Africa have

Most of black africa (somalis included) will grow until the latter half of the century because the median age is so low. I can only think South Africa will decline because they are very close to the replacement rate. Most countries have median age ranging from 16-21, they are not even close to booming in population.

Bit of a wildcard opinion bit I think black african countries TFR will certainly decline but due to the recent worldwide shift to being more conservative, african nations fertility rate will probably never be as low as the rest of the world. Africa will probably never witness the same liberalisation that the west witnessed or the crazy working culture that has doomed east asians.

Africans are still largely religious and muslim ethnicities will be the winners in the long run because Islam has shown to be resistent and actually has raised fertility rates of countries like for example Algeria and Egypt.

 

[El Nino]

@Chaseyourdreamzz

Ethiopians cooked the number for Somali region, there won’t be a sudden drop to 5.8 from 7.2. Instead, I guess somali regions TFR is probably 6.1-6.5 children per women.

 

[convincation]

Difference in Fertility rates in Ethiopia are religious, Muslims are having more Children than Christians.

https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/FR118/04Chapter04.pdf

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

@Chaseyourdreamzz

Ethiopians cooked the number for Somali region, there won’t be a sudden drop to 5.8 from 7.2. Instead, I guess somali regions TFR is probably 6.1-6.5 children per women.

The TFR for Somalia itself was 6.9 in 2020 now DDS is more nomadic/rural then Somalia itself my guess is it still above 7 between 1994-2016 the TFR for DDS was actually rising it’s clear as day the numbers are false

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Most of black africa (somalis included) will grow until the latter half of the century because the median age is so low. I can only think South Africa will decline because they are very close to the replacement rate. Most countries have median age ranging from 16-21, they are not even close to booming in population.

Bit of a wildcard opinion bit I think black african countries TFR will certainly decline but due to the recent worldwide shift to being more conservative, african nations fertility rate will probably never be as low as the rest of the world. Africa will probably never witness the same liberalisation that the west witnessed or the crazy working culture that has doomed east asians.

Africans are still largely religious and muslim ethnicities will be the winners in the long run because Islam has shown to be resistent and actually has raised fertility rates of countries like for example Algeria and Egypt.

Africas decline will never be as bad as Asia But The TFR of certain African countries is declining fast good example is Kenya which is now at 3.3-3.0 and will most likely be at replacement level in a decade this is good for Somalis as our percentage of Kenya will only continue to increase especially among younger cohorts already 15 percent of 0-14 year olds in Kenya are from NFD

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Niger fertility rate drop down to 6.2
Regional breakdown

 

[bidenkulaha]

The Americans are exporting planned parenthood and ‘women’s liberation’. This can be very successful in changing societies in a short time.

They do have more pushback from Muslim communities but this will wane eventually.

 

[GemState]

@Chaseyourdreamzz Sorry bro, didn't see this.

I think SSA hits 2.1 billion by 2050, Africa as a whole at around 2.5 billion by 2050. Any projections past then get dodgy.

The crashing of fertility in Latin America, East Asia, India should mean Africa's demographics are still by far the best even if we undergo a quick demographic transition. At the end of the day, demographics are relative. If our competition is at 1-1.7 then even at a TFR of 3 we're winning. Best we can do is halt the demographic transition as much as possible.

Still though, gonna light up the biggest cigar when the Amhara & Tigray region goes below replacement but Galbeed has a TFR of like 6, Goodbye forever Abyssinia, you cuntś

 

[GemState]

The Amhara visceral hatred for Tigrayans makes sense, the TPLF made sure the Amhara region was poor + sterile. Xabeshi hatred is on another stratosphere

 

[El Nino]

The Amhara visceral hatred for Tigrayans makes sense, the TPLF made sure the Amhara region was poor + sterile. Xabeshi hatred is on another stratosphere

View attachment 248357

Meles Zenawi literally cucked the entire Horn for decades until his death, what a demon.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

The Amhara visceral hatred for Tigrayans makes sense, the TPLF made sure the Amhara region was poor + sterile. Xabeshi hatred is on another stratosphere

View attachment 248357

That’s what happens when your enemies are in power that regions TFR is now down to 3 they will be going under replacement within the next decade
Addis Ababa already has one of the lowest TFR in Africa which is a reflection of what’s to come in the future

 

[JaredAbdullahiKushner2000]

Looks like the projection of 4 billion subsaharan Africans by 2100 will most likely never come to fruition the even crazier part is there is different fertility rates between ethnic groups which can have massive political and social implications in the future

First country Senegal TFR decline to 3.9

second country Ethiopia According to Ethiopian government Somali TFR has declined to 5.8 from 7.2 in 2016
@El Nino @GemState what do y’all think how many more decades of population growth does Africa have

Good for us, but the FGS must make food security a priority and invest in agriculture when Jilib, Jamaame and all the fertile land is liberated. The communities must be given modern farming equipment and build irrigation systems. The charcoal sellers must be moved to these areas. We must use our rivers to forest the land make the arable land in Somalia go from 10% to 30%.