Gorgor troops cant do push ups

[Idilinaa]

For you and you can pass this video along to the other accounts spouting doomer dribble

 

[Som]

Because I stick to facts, that makes me “nonsensical”? Let’s be real , people constantly overestimate Al-Shabaab. They’ve never been able to capture and hold any major town or densely populated area. For decades now, they’ve been limited to roaming like bandits in remote areas and rural villages in the south.

Their whole strategy boils down to ambushes, laying mines, and sending in suicide bombers , that’s their gimmick. It’s disruptive, yes, but it’s not the kind of sustained military power people make it out to be.

The real key to eliminating them long-term is through air power and cutting off their supply routes. And everything I’ve said about Al-Shabaab over the years has remained true , their pattern hasn’t changed.



They have not deployed the T-129 Attack helicopter at all, they are currently training people to man them.

Tiktok is not a good source for anything. Gem-Tech is a private security company they are not the national army.



Instead of being stuck on optimism vs pessimism, it’s better to have a balanced perspective. You can acknowledge the very real challenges while also recognizing the steps being taken in the right direction to address them.

How exactly is Somalia “fucked” when it’s launching major development projects, building infrastructure, and expanding its capacity bit by bit? That’s not the sign of a country with no way forward.

I don't disagree with u but let's also not underestimate the danger. The Talibans were also outside of major population centers in Afghanistan and they took the entire country in a few days. I think AS is waiting for most AU troops to leave and then try to pull a move like the Taliban did in Afghanistan

 

[Som]

Because I stick to facts, that makes me “nonsensical”? Let’s be real , people constantly overestimate Al-Shabaab. They’ve never been able to capture and hold any major town or densely populated area. For decades now, they’ve been limited to roaming like bandits in remote areas and rural villages in the south.

Their whole strategy boils down to ambushes, laying mines, and sending in suicide bombers , that’s their gimmick. It’s disruptive, yes, but it’s not the kind of sustained military power people make it out to be.

The real key to eliminating them long-term is through air power and cutting off their supply routes. And everything I’ve said about Al-Shabaab over the years has remained true , their pattern hasn’t changed.



They have not deployed the T-129 Attack helicopter at all, they are currently training people to man them.

Tiktok is not a good source for anything. Gem-Tech is a private security company they are not the national army.



Instead of being stuck on optimism vs pessimism, it’s better to have a balanced perspective. You can acknowledge the very real challenges while also recognizing the steps being taken in the right direction to address them.

How exactly is Somalia “fucked” when it’s launching major development projects, building infrastructure, and expanding its capacity bit by bit? That’s not the sign of a country with no way forward.

The main issue is that Somalia is taking 3 steps forward, then one step back , then 2 step forward, then 1 step back etc. Improvement is there but it's slow and very up and down.

 

[Idilinaa]

I don't disagree with u but let's also not underestimate the danger. The Talibans were also outside of major population centers in Afghanistan and they took the entire country in a few days. I think AS is waiting for most AU troops to leave and then try to pull a move like the Taliban did in Afghanistan

The Taliban analogy is far removed from reality , that’s something only outsiders would make. Al-Shabaab has very little legitimacy or genuine local support; their entire model is built on a foreign ideology enforced through fear, coercion, and financial extortion. The Taliban, on the other hand, were deeply rooted in Afghan society, culture, and local backing.

Al-Shabaab survives only through violence, intimidation, blackmail, and extortion , not voluntary consent.

It’s the same reason ISIS in Puntland never grew beyond a handful of fighters in remote mountains: they were outsiders exploiting a temporary security gap. The idea that Al-Shabaab could suddenly capture major population centers or expand in the way the Taliban did is pure delusion.

The main issue is that Somalia is taking 3 steps forward, then one step back , then 2 step forward, then 1 step back etc. Improvement is there but it's slow and very up and down.

The improvements have actually been extremely rapid across nearly every sector if you look into the facts. The problem is that Somalis on social media (and even in the news) keep recycling outdated stats or get stuck bickering over political theater , usually raging at Hassan Sheikh or whoever else is in office , while completely ignoring the bigger picture. Not even a fraction of the real progress has been processed by them.

Outside coverage doesn’t help either, since it mainly fixates on Al-Shabaab or humanitarian crises, which distorts reality.

Even with Al-Shabaab, the governments already recaptured and held almost all the major towns and populated areas in the south in a very short time. What’s left is a tug-of-war over rural villages and remote areas and that’s only because AS avoids direct confrontation, slips away, and relies on traps and ambushes.

 

[Som]

The Taliban analogy is far removed from reality , that’s something only outsiders would make. Al-Shabaab has very little legitimacy or genuine local support; their entire model is built on a foreign ideology enforced through fear, coercion, and financial extortion. The Taliban, on the other hand, were deeply rooted in Afghan society, culture, and local backing.

Al-Shabaab survives only through violence, intimidation, blackmail, and extortion , not voluntary consent.

It’s the same reason ISIS in Puntland never grew beyond a handful of fighters in remote mountains: they were outsiders exploiting a temporary security gap. The idea that Al-Shabaab could suddenly capture major population centers or expand in the way the Taliban did is pure delusion.




The improvements have actually been extremely rapid across nearly every sector if you look into the facts. The problem is that Somalis on social media (and even in the news) keep recycling outdated stats or get stuck bickering over political theater , usually raging at Hassan Sheikh or whoever else is in office , while completely ignoring the bigger picture. Not even a fraction of the real progress has been processed by them.

Outside coverage doesn’t help either, since it mainly fixates on Al-Shabaab or humanitarian crises, which distorts reality.

Even with Al-Shabaab, the governments already recaptured and held almost all the major towns and populated areas in the south in a very short time. What’s left is a tug-of-war over rural villages and remote areas and that’s only because AS avoids direct confrontation, slips away, and relies on traps and ambushes.

I disagree.
1) lets be honest : Al shaydaan has some local support in the areas they control, if they didn't they wouldn't be able to control so many areas of central and southern Somalia. AS acts like a mafia organization through fear that's true but they also exploit the instability of the country and governments corruption. People in AS territory don't really see much difference between the FGS and Al shaydaan. The government is corrupt and clan based , the khawarij are evil but more united among themselves than the government forces. The FGS and federal states are focused on petty personal qabil interests while the khawarij have a somewhat unified ideology which is wicked and evil but still unified and focused on one major goal.
Normal people in rural Somalia see this and they don't feel like there's that much difference between the government and the khawarij. The government has failed to be seen as the good force it's supposed to be.
2) I agree that there have been improvements , I 100% support our brave soldiers fighting against the khawarij devils but we have to be honest and realistic. The improvement is not enough, Al shaydaan is still way too organized, way too infiltrated in every single section of Somali society south of Gaalkacyo including the government, police , army, general society etc. In many ways Al shaydaan is more effective and organized than the Federal government, this a shame and a huge issue.
3) the above points were also true for Afghanistan, the main difference is that our army is better and more motivated than the afghan army but still we rely too much on foreign military support when it comes to airstrikes, logistic etc. Once the African Union troops leave we will be on our own and the army is only good if we have a proper united government that focuses on the fight against the khawarij. The government is mostly Xamar only, each maamul goboleed ka pretty much on their own. We can't fight the khawarij when the FGS , PL , JL etc are constantly at each other's throats.

 

[Idilinaa]

I disagree.
1) lets be honest : Al shaydaan has some local support in the areas they control, if they didn't they wouldn't be able to control so many areas of central and southern Somalia. AS acts like a mafia organization through fear that's true but they also exploit the instability of the country and governments corruption. People in AS territory don't really see much difference between the FGS and Al shaydaan. The government is corrupt and clan based , the khawarij are evil but more united among themselves than the government forces. The FGS and federal states are focused on petty personal qabil interests while the khawarij have a somewhat unified ideology which is wicked and evil but still unified and focused on one major goal.
Normal people in rural Somalia see this and they don't feel like there's that much difference between the government and the khawarij. The government has failed to be seen as the good force it's supposed to be.
2) I agree that there have been improvements , I 100% support our brave soldiers fighting against the khawarij devils but we have to be honest and realistic. The improvement is not enough, Al shaydaan is still way too organized, way too infiltrated in every single section of Somali society south of Gaalkacyo including the government, police , army, general society etc. In many ways Al shaydaan is more effective and organized than the Federal government, this a shame and a huge issue.
3) the above points were also true for Afghanistan, the main difference is that our army is better and more motivated than the afghan army but still we rely too much on foreign military support when it comes to airstrikes, logistic etc. Once the African Union troops leave we will be on our own and the army is only good if we have a proper united government that focuses on the fight against the khawarij. The government is mostly Xamar only, each maamul goboleed ka pretty much on their own. We can't fight the khawarij when the FGS , PL , JL etc are constantly at each other's throats.

Al-Shabaab actually has an incredibly high defection rate, which shows they’re not united , most people despise them, even those lured in at first. They don’t have a real governing structure; they move like a fluid entity that survives on terror, extortion, and fear.
https://en.goobjoog.com/the-first-defectors-how-somalia-broke-al-shabaabs-aura-of-invincibility/

ATMIS troops withdrawal will do very little, most of the fighting is done by the army and they drive the offensive as well. Improvements have been happening, people only need to see how bad things used to be to compare it to now.

But i agree with you, its better for each federal state to operate in coordination with eachother on the security front , hopefully we will see more of that in the near future.

The problem is armchair political analysts never reflect on how insurgencies really operate. They overestimate them without looking at history. Even powerful, stable states with far more resources than Somalia struggled for decades with similar groups. The IRA dragged out 30 years of bombings and assassinations in Britain, ETA terrorized Spain for 58 years, while Germany’s Red Army Faction and Italy’s Red Brigades waged urban guerilla campaigns for decades.


That’s why I refuse to let terrorism or political violence define Somalia. Every nation has dealt with it, especially the hypocritical West that brands Somalia with it while ignoring their own histories. Meanwhile, most of Somalia today is safe, governed, and even seeing economic growth.


The key difference is that unlike those groups who focused on urban guerilla tactics, Al-Shabaab hides in remote rural areas, which makes them harder to pin down.


So when people criticize the army or the government, they ignore the complexity, guerilla groups like this are incredibly difficult to eliminate, and governments are constrained in how they fight. Somalia cannot just “carpet bomb” villages like in WWII Europe or Japan, or like the Kacaan did in Hargeisa/Burco, or the Ethiopians backed by Americans did in Mogadishu in 2007 or the UNSOM mission did in the early 90s. The human and financial cost would be unbearable. Yes, you’d kill Al-Shabaab or drive them out, but at what cost? Innocents already die from drone strikes and displacement as it is.


That’s the difference between reality and the armchair analysts on Twitter. They’re not on the frontlines or among the civilians caught in this. They’re tweeting from a comfortable chair behind a keyboard, with no sense of the complexity or the human cost.