Ever since the embargo has been lifted, everyone's been wondering how long it'll take for the government to acquire real heavy weaponry, like bomber aircraft, heavy artillery, or armored vehicles.
One reason is obvious: money. These things cost money, involving political maneuvering, technical know-how, and the like.
That still shouldn't be a major issue. It's not like the army would be getting top-of-the-line, or even NATO-standard equipment. Somalia, like the vast majority of the second and third world, will have to look at former-Soviet equipment to create its armed forces.
The problem is, this equipment has become incredibly scarce in just a couple of years. One reason is that Somalia missed out on what can only be described as "a super discount sale" of this equipment. This was happening as Eastern Bloc NATO countries were selling and scrapping their former Soviet equipment to repurchase US/French/Swedish equipment to get up to NATO standards.
Supply of cheap heavy weaponry has completely dried up and has been bought up en masse. Why? NATO has bought up all the possible supply from every country willing to sell them and redirected it to Ukraine. The reason for this is that a Ukrainian tank crew could easily use former Soviet equipment as that was their standard, using it to plug holes as the army gets retrained using NATO equipment. This war is the deadliest and costliest yet, in terms of money and equipment. A massive amount of Soviet equipment has been destroyed, permanently altering the supply. Their even buying and replacing equipment from places like Ecuador, who gets a massiv pay day coupled with brand new weaponry.
Ideally, Somalia would restart its air force by procuring MiG-21/23/25/27, Hind helicopters, and tank battalions via modernized T-55s/T-72s, etc. However, these are completely gone from the markets. Countries that have them know that selling them means having to rebuy more expensive equipment. If you're one of the many countries not facing an existential enemy, having your army drive around T-72s just a few more decades is not a problem.
We could turn to Russia, but besides our country being obviously pro-western, Russia has been sanctioned so badly that it's like the Cold War all over again. Besides, it's focusing its entire industry on resupplying itself, so in no way are they going to produce export models anytime soon.
That leaves few countries open, with China being an obvious one. During Siad Barre's regime, we had quite a lot of J-6s. I'd argue that J-7s/8s might be purchased, but I doubt that China would donate any to a US-allied state. We'd be buying at top dollar, which isn't a lot, but we are a poor country.
Some scraps will be thrown our way; our air force is being trained by the Turks, so the first few donations will be coming from them. Turkey has a large number of F-4 aircraft, almost all of of these modernized. Turkey has upgraded and acquired F-35s, so a handful of F-4s, maybe even un-upgraded ones at first, will be the first true aircraft Somalia could acquire. I also see Egypt as a source for some of these weaponry based on the geo-political dance done between our government and theirs.
A glimmer of hope, though, once the Ukraine-Russo war ends, the entire Ukrainian army will be upgraded to NATO standard. I reckon some of these equipment will find its way, relatively cheaply, into our armed forces.
TL;DR: The Ukraine-Russia war has absorbed the world supply of cheap heavy weaponry. Somalia will probably acquire some post-Ukraine war and/or through Turkish donations of their decommissioned equipment.
One reason is obvious: money. These things cost money, involving political maneuvering, technical know-how, and the like.
That still shouldn't be a major issue. It's not like the army would be getting top-of-the-line, or even NATO-standard equipment. Somalia, like the vast majority of the second and third world, will have to look at former-Soviet equipment to create its armed forces.
The problem is, this equipment has become incredibly scarce in just a couple of years. One reason is that Somalia missed out on what can only be described as "a super discount sale" of this equipment. This was happening as Eastern Bloc NATO countries were selling and scrapping their former Soviet equipment to repurchase US/French/Swedish equipment to get up to NATO standards.
Supply of cheap heavy weaponry has completely dried up and has been bought up en masse. Why? NATO has bought up all the possible supply from every country willing to sell them and redirected it to Ukraine. The reason for this is that a Ukrainian tank crew could easily use former Soviet equipment as that was their standard, using it to plug holes as the army gets retrained using NATO equipment. This war is the deadliest and costliest yet, in terms of money and equipment. A massive amount of Soviet equipment has been destroyed, permanently altering the supply. Their even buying and replacing equipment from places like Ecuador, who gets a massiv pay day coupled with brand new weaponry.
Ideally, Somalia would restart its air force by procuring MiG-21/23/25/27, Hind helicopters, and tank battalions via modernized T-55s/T-72s, etc. However, these are completely gone from the markets. Countries that have them know that selling them means having to rebuy more expensive equipment. If you're one of the many countries not facing an existential enemy, having your army drive around T-72s just a few more decades is not a problem.
We could turn to Russia, but besides our country being obviously pro-western, Russia has been sanctioned so badly that it's like the Cold War all over again. Besides, it's focusing its entire industry on resupplying itself, so in no way are they going to produce export models anytime soon.
That leaves few countries open, with China being an obvious one. During Siad Barre's regime, we had quite a lot of J-6s. I'd argue that J-7s/8s might be purchased, but I doubt that China would donate any to a US-allied state. We'd be buying at top dollar, which isn't a lot, but we are a poor country.
Some scraps will be thrown our way; our air force is being trained by the Turks, so the first few donations will be coming from them. Turkey has a large number of F-4 aircraft, almost all of of these modernized. Turkey has upgraded and acquired F-35s, so a handful of F-4s, maybe even un-upgraded ones at first, will be the first true aircraft Somalia could acquire. I also see Egypt as a source for some of these weaponry based on the geo-political dance done between our government and theirs.
A glimmer of hope, though, once the Ukraine-Russo war ends, the entire Ukrainian army will be upgraded to NATO standard. I reckon some of these equipment will find its way, relatively cheaply, into our armed forces.
TL;DR: The Ukraine-Russia war has absorbed the world supply of cheap heavy weaponry. Somalia will probably acquire some post-Ukraine war and/or through Turkish donations of their decommissioned equipment.
