I have a hunch about al shabaab

[DrippinglyWet]

I have a feeling that al shabaab will leave Somalia for the NFD region it seems their current moves in the region indicates that, the current population in Somalia seems to be becoming apathetic to their cause while the NFD Somalis & coastal muslims seems to be more "welcoming" to them considering the treatment the Christian goverment seems to be doing to them, If you look at the recent shabaab attacks you will see they are exclusively in that region while it's a known fact that in Ramadan especially the first couple of days shabaab intensevies it's (suicide)attacks but it has been eerily silent.
I'm not expecting them to announce it nor am I expecting their attacks to seize but you will see over the course of the next 1-2 years a gradually down spiral of their influence in Somalia and moving their fight to Kenya.
Here are a couple of reasons their becoming unpopular in Somalia.

• Al shabaab is becoming undesirable since the FJ goverment now seems to be a secure alternative
• It has lost the support of the young and the people a like
• Many of the clans that supported it have turned their back against it.
• It's fighters are demoralised and recruits seems to be dry it seems that the bulk of new recruits come from Kenya Uganda etc.
• The "crusader" narrative will be a lot more inpactful in Kenya.

TL:DR shabaab has lost its popularity in Somalia due to numerous factors, their current moves seems to indicate they want to bring the fight to the NFD/Muslim Kenya as they will draw a lot more support from the locals over their.
Share your opinion.

 

[Shangani]

I was literarily thinking the same the other day.

 

[DrippinglyWet]

I was literarily thinking the same the other day.

Yeah al shabaab only seems to be attacking NFD from a military standpoint that would be a stupid mistake why fight far from your territory instead of securing it ? But considering people like Cali dheere seem to be residing in NFD and the scores of attack over their and big decrease of attack in Somalia it would make sense that they try for an exit strategy like ISIS in Iraq was doing.