If the civil war hadn't happened, what would Somali be like today?

[hopelessMan]

Let's dream for a second and say the civil war never happened, and there was never clan wars in Somalia. From 1960 until today, power was being transitioned without any problems.

How developed would Somalia be today?
considering Ethiopa collapsed in 1991, when Eritrea got its independence, do you think Ogaden would have been freed by Somalia at this point also?
What would the population be like?
How much influence would we have in Africa, and globally?
How many gold medals would Somalia have at the olympics? In what sports?

 

[Internet Nomad]

Imagine the most advanced city on earth now picture that city 3000 years into the future.

 

[Homerlilian]

Probably somewhat identical to kenya . I think we would have had a much less religious populace . Nationalism still being at its peak . Pirate stereotypes would not exist and xamar would still have its beauty intact . We would have been known less around the world probably akin to madagascan

In my eyes somalia being the threat it was to it’s two neighbouring countries I don’t think it was meant to last to long before destabilising. Add to that tribalism and corruption still existing back than .

 

[Aseer]

Probably somewhat identical to kenya . I think we would have had a much less religious populace . Nationalism still being at its peak . Pirate stereotypes would not exist and xamar would still have its beauty intact . We would have been known less around the world probably akin to madagascan

In my eyes somalia being the threat it was to it’s two neighbouring countries I don’t think it was meant to last to long before destabilising. Add to that tribalism and corruption still existing back than .

No we would be way better than kenya we a
were already ahead of them pre civil war.

 

[Ashraf]

No we would be way better than kenya we a
were already ahead of them pre civil war.

I think we’d have the highest gdp per capita in Africa but our potential would be hindered by corruption

 

[Ashraf]

We’d regain galbeed nfd djibouti and socotra. Have a population of around 40-50 million a gdp of 500 billion largest in Africa be a member of Brics instead of South Africa and a member of the g20

 

[hopelessMan]

We’d regain galbeed nfd djibouti and socotra. Have a population of around 40-50 million a gdp of 500 billion largest in Africa be a member of Brics instead of South Africa and a member of the g20

I like your response sxb because it allows me to continue dreaming!

 

[Lahaine]

Probably like Kenya.

 

[hopelessMan]

Probably like Kenya.

How so? Like someone else mentioned, we were ahead of them pre war?

 

[Lahaine]

How so? Like someone else mentioned, we were ahead of them pre war?

We were only ahead of them militarily but economically I don't believe there was a big difference. Also the British heavily invested in their colonies unlike Italy so infrastructure wise they were ahead of us.

A similarity I believe we would have had is a democratic system like theirs.

 

[hopelessMan]

We were only ahead of them militarily but economically I don't believe there was a big difference. Also the British heavily invested in their colonies unlike Italy so infrastructure wise they were ahead of us.

A similarity I believe we would have had is a democratic system like theirs.

I live in Kenya, I know for sure our people wouldn't work as hard as the Kenya people and a country needs labor force to develop.

 

[johnsepei5]

Somalis are genetically violent emotional and hotheaded and conflicts are always resolved with guns instead of courts

civil war and conflict was always bound to happen in Somalia ,Siad barre or not

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

If the gov had not collapsed, Somalia would look something like Uganda, Cameroon, Republic of Congo, Guinea in GDP per capita on the low end. On the high end, something like Kenya ~$1,900. The reason why I don’t think that GDP per capita would be much higher is the 3.5% population growth rate.


There would be massive regional inequalities with Muqdisho accounting for something like 60% of the economy and having something like 5 million people. All other cities would be fairly small in comparison. The urban bias in favor of Muqdisho would mean that everyone would have to live there to have a decent education, income, etc…

Basically a run of the mill African shithole.

 

[Ashraf]

If the gov had not collapsed, Somalia would look something like Uganda, Cameroon, Republic of Congo, Guinea in GDP per capita on the low end. On the high end, something like Kenya ~$1,900. The reason why I don’t think that GDP per capita would be much higher is the 3.5% population growth rate.


There would be massive regional inequalities with Muqdisho accounting for something like 60% of the economy and having something like 5 million people. All other cities would be fairly small in comparison. The urban bias in favor of Muqdisho would mean that everyone would have to live there to have a decent education, income, etc…

Basically a run of the mill African shithole.

if the civil war didn’t happen no way we’d be like Uganda and others. We were considered by others as the African country with the highest potential and a place where democracy could actually work. Qabil wasn’t even that bad back then there was still favouritism and nepotism but people were still competent and loved their nation. Nationalism was high and there were no ethnic conflicts. Resource scarcity wouldn’t matter and qabils wouldn’t have animosity to others over land as we’d have oil money and with the small population we had then, we would be well off even with high income inequality and corruption I’d bet we’d still have the highest gdp per capita.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Let's dream for a second and say the civil war never happened, and there was never clan wars in Somalia. From 1960 until today, power was being transitioned without any problems.

How developed would Somalia be today?
considering Ethiopa collapsed in 1991, when Eritrea got its independence, do you think Ogaden would have been freed by Somalia at this point also?
What would the population be like?
How much influence would we have in Africa, and globally?
How many gold medals would Somalia have at the olympics? In what sports?

We would be like eritrea.

 

[Zak12]

We would look like Algeria today. Plenty of resources and coastline to develop industrial sectors

 

[Yahya]

Depends. If we utilised our brains and used out proven oil reserves like Norway, we could not only finance large industries and develop the country into a first world nation but also spur a cultural revolution and change our lives for the better. So sad to see that none of that happened thanks to Siad barre and those short sighted fools.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

if the civil war didn’t happen no way we’d be like Uganda and others. We were considered by others as the African country with the highest potential and a place where democracy could actually work. Qabil wasn’t even that bad back then there was still favouritism and nepotism but people were still competent and loved their nation. Nationalism was high and there were no ethnic conflicts. Resource scarcity wouldn’t matter and qabils wouldn’t have animosity to others over land as we’d have oil money and with the small population we had then, we would be well off even with high income inequality and corruption I’d bet we’d still have the highest gdp per capita.

Already by 1979, 12 years before the collapse, Maxamed Siyaad Barre had dismantelled all the remnants of the democratic administration that was in place a decade earlier. There was no parliament, nor were there parties, no civil society, no independent judiciary, etc... MSB burned Somalia's boats, there was no going back to a democratic Somalia without massive bloodshed.

The experience with dictatorship had also changed people's relationship with power. The pastoral democracy assumption was broken. A dictatorship was possible, MSB had proved this. Many people, like Caydiid, now wanted to become like MSB.

If Somalia had carried on as a state post 1991, it would likely have collapsed when MSB dies sometime in the mid/late 90s.

 

[Burqad]

Already by 1979, 12 years before the collapse, Maxamed Siyaad Barre had dismantelled all the remnants of the democratic administration that was in place a decade earlier. There was no parliament, nor were there parties, no civil society, no independent judiciary, etc... MSB burned Somalia's boats, there was no going back to a democratic Somalia without massive bloodshed.

The experience with dictatorship had also changed people's relationship with power. The pastoral democracy assumption was broken. A dictatorship was possible, MSB had proved this. Many people, like Caydiid, now wanted to become like MSB.

If Somalia had carried on as a state post 1991, it would likely have collapsed when MSB dies sometime in the mid/late 90s.

That’s true. Somalia would be a west African Senegal.

We would look like Algeria today. Plenty of resources and coastline to develop industrial sectors

algeria is a junta, Somalia had one man rule. like the Algerian junta share power, Somalia (like Ethiopia) didn’t even reach that level of power sharing, one man made himself the boss immediately

 

[Zak12]

were already ahead of them pre civil war.

I don't think so. I read some posts here somewhere I think from @Yazi or @Periplus that showed Somalia's GDP per capita and growth being lower than Kenya's and this was even during the civilian administration and early Siad Barre years. Somalia was heavily dependent on aid and wasn't really self sufficient. It got far worse after the Ogaden War where the economy tanked but basically we weren't doing so hot to begin with.