I am starting to believe that Somalia's problems are intractable. That they cannot be fixed, that the society is screwed forever. Here's some of the reasons why:
1. Somalia has terrible human capital. 80% of Somalis are illiterate. The vast majority of Somalis have never been to school, and those who have went to schools of dubious quality. Although the diaspora is often held up as this great hope for Somalia, the sad reality is that Somalis in the diaspora also suffer from extremely terrible human capital.
2. Islam is a big problem in Somalia. Since the 1980s, Somalia has seen the rise of the Salafi movement. These people believe that the world should return to the legal and social norms of 7th century Arabia. They are extremely hostile to anything that does not conform to their beliefs and are prone to violence. Because Somalis are largely illiterate and uneducated, they have been easily brainwashed into accepting that Salafaism is the will of Allah. Salafis probably make up the majority of the Somali population at this time. This obviously does not bode well for those wishing to progress the society.
3. Somalia's maladaptive clannish culture continues to undermine security and progress throughout the country.
4. Somali political elites are venal and corrupt and there is no tradition of public service in the country.
Some of these problems can potentially be fixed, such as illiteracy. But others, such as the problems posed by Islam and the clan culture, are so deep-seated and destructive that I believe they are intractable. Somalia is probably screwed for a very long time.
1. Somalia has terrible human capital. 80% of Somalis are illiterate. The vast majority of Somalis have never been to school, and those who have went to schools of dubious quality. Although the diaspora is often held up as this great hope for Somalia, the sad reality is that Somalis in the diaspora also suffer from extremely terrible human capital.
2. Islam is a big problem in Somalia. Since the 1980s, Somalia has seen the rise of the Salafi movement. These people believe that the world should return to the legal and social norms of 7th century Arabia. They are extremely hostile to anything that does not conform to their beliefs and are prone to violence. Because Somalis are largely illiterate and uneducated, they have been easily brainwashed into accepting that Salafaism is the will of Allah. Salafis probably make up the majority of the Somali population at this time. This obviously does not bode well for those wishing to progress the society.
3. Somalia's maladaptive clannish culture continues to undermine security and progress throughout the country.
4. Somali political elites are venal and corrupt and there is no tradition of public service in the country.
Some of these problems can potentially be fixed, such as illiteracy. But others, such as the problems posed by Islam and the clan culture, are so deep-seated and destructive that I believe they are intractable. Somalia is probably screwed for a very long time.