Muse Bixi meets with James swan and Somali flag on table.

K

Kamaaludeen Al Reewin

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Hilmaam

Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
somaliland will not get independance. nobody is interested in another welfare state that will lead to collapse of somalia. somaliland has no benefit to world powers that matter and its to broke to do its own thing which is why its hosting UN somalia angling for aid and support

somalia borders will not change in our lifetimes forget about it. worst case scenerio we back to 90s anarchy and world will not bat an eye. Best case scenerio we strike some natural resource and get some semblence of governance and stop being 4th world country
Hungry Dinner GIF
 
Itsnotthateasy

Itsnotthateasy

Hilmaam said:
somaliland will not get independance. nobody is interested in another welfare state that will lead to collapse of somalia. somaliland has no benefit to world powers that matter and its to broke to do its own thing which is why its hosting UN somalia angling for aid and support

somalia borders will not change in our lifetimes forget about it. worst case scenerio we back to 90s anarchy and world will not bat an eye. Best case scenerio we strike some natural resource and get some semblence of governance and stop being 4th world country
Hungry Dinner GIF
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You Mogadishu citizens do your thing and try divide and conquer and we will try to escape. I think we have a better chance than you of achieving our aims. If you don't form a stable government in the next few years (less than five) they might be willing to balakanize because you had plenty of time and there's no more patience or money from the IC.

You keep playing the card of it's us or the extremists and that's a powerful card but it's too ruthless to keep playing over and over while not developing governance capacity. It will just be like Afghanistan and the IC will negotiate directly with the extremists without you involved and it will be over. They might let the stable regions leave then to be under secular rule and part of the world order.
 
Hilmaam

Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Itsnotthateasy said:
You Mogadishu citizens do your thing and try divide and conquer and we will try to escape. I think we have a better chance than you of achieving our aims. If you don't form a stable government in the next few years (less than five) they might be willing to balakanize because you had plenty of time and there's no more patience or money from the IC.

You keep playing the card of it's us or the extremists and that's a powerful card but it's too ruthless to keep playing over and over while not developing governance capacity. It will just be like Afghanistan and the IC will negotiate directly with the extremists without you involved and it will be over. They might let the stable regions leave then to be under secular rule and part of the world order.
Click to expand...
You looking at from somaliland point of view but world powers looking at Somalia as a whole. If Somaliland is allowed to leave its collapse of whole country and war to establish borders and secede based on clans. World powers I don’t think care about this stalemate Somalia has no importance to world they just want to contain chaos and minimize damage. Recognizing clan states spreads chaos to whole of Africa
 
Itsnotthateasy

Itsnotthateasy

Hilmaam said:
You looking at from somaliland point of view but world powers looking at Somalia as a whole. If Somaliland is allowed to leave its collapse of whole country and war to establish borders and secede based on clans. World powers I don’t think care about this stalemate Somalia has no importance to world they just want to contain chaos and minimize damage. Recognizing clan states spreads chaos to whole of Africa
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You think the world powers are going to keep Somalia in stalemate forever? It costs billions of dollars a year to maintain that stalemate and they are not getting anything out of it. They are already winding down support so I think the finale looks a bit like Afghanistan.

Somalia is very different neither the FGS or the extremists have ever had any reach in at least half the territority so balkanization is on the cards and it's not going to spread to other countries because it's really a last resort.

It doesn't look like it's happening right but when it happens it will pretty much be here today gone tomorrow kind of situation.
 
Hilmaam

Hilmaam

Let him cook
VIP
Itsnotthateasy said:
You think the world powers are going to keep Somalia in stalemate forever? It costs billions of dollars a year to maintain that stalemate and they are not getting anything out of it. They are already winding down support so I think the finale looks a bit like Afghanistan.

Somalia is very different neither the FGS or the extremists have ever had any reach in at least half the territority areas so balkanization is on the cards and it's not going to spread to other countries because it's really a last resort.

It doesn't look like it's happening right but when it happens it will pretty much be here today gone tomorrow kind of situation.
Click to expand...
Yes I believe it , as it’s been happening for 30 plus years. Puntland somaliland don’t matter nobody getting to break away. We stuck in limbo. Maybe World will supply some aid so Europe not flocked with immigrants.billions is rounding error to places like America


 
Itsnotthateasy

Itsnotthateasy

Hilmaam said:
Yes I believe it , as it’s been happening for 30 plus years. Puntland somaliland don’t matter nobody getting to break away. We stuck in limbo. Maybe World will supply some aid so Europe not flocked with immigrants.billions is rounding error to places like America


Click to expand...

US has problems in serious places like Europe and the Middle East and Asia. Between Russia, Iran and China they don't have money for Somalia.

If they did they wouldn't be reluctant to finance the new mission AUSSOM under UN assessed contributions which would mean the mission would be on more firm footing than before.

(UN resolution 2719 is about AU peace keeping missions being funded by UN assessed contributions)



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