My prediction of Somali politics for the upcoming 20 months!!

[Karim]

Puntland-SSCKhaatumo-Somaliland

There will be another war in the north, most likely this year, Somaliland will lose Ceerigaabo and some towns in Togdheer region, preferably towns that come under the jurisdiction of Buhodle, Qorligud etc.

Muse Bihi will use vote rigging and corruption to win the next election, or worse; he will use "we're at war" excuse to postpone elections and extend his term. The dude won't go away imo.

Warsangali won't agree to join SSC khaatumo thus hindering SSC khaatumo chances of fully becoming a Federal State.

Awdal won't rise up, most of their current elders and politicians in the region firmly believe that Somaliland gaining recognition will be excellent for their region.

Puntland will triumph against the fake constitution written by HSM. The first expansion phase of Bosaso port will finish this year, the second phase will start next year. The vital Garacad-Galdogob road will be completed in 18 months.

South and Central Somalia

Qoorqoor will lose the next elections, paving the way for Mahad Salaad to takeover. He will be the first Ceyr president in Galmudug. Post his election, I predict he will antagonise Marehan clans in the region by arming his HG clan. Shabaab will regain some territories they lost in recent battles due to Galmudug and FGS's preoccupation with local and federal elections. Ali Guudlaawe will lose his seat to a new Xawaadle president in Hirshabelle.

Ahmed Madobe will form his electoral commission this year winning another term as Jubaland president. Some OG politicians specially those of Awlyahan sub clan will declare the election rigged and unconstitutional but eventually in 2025 there will be an agreement forcing them to recognise his authority. Madoobe will keep the status quo, not bothering to liberate Middle Jubba, but he will fight with Shabab in Lower Jubba region. Marehan and their discontentment with his rule will increase.

LaftaGareen will copy Madoobe and form his own electoral commission achieving a landslide victory. This victory will be made possible by:

1. The FGS politics to undermine Rahanwayn MPs, threatening them with expulsion from the parliament.
2. The harsh toned vitriolic talks spewed by Hawiye elders, not to mention the recent tribal clashes in Yaaqbariweyne, Sh/Hoose.
3. The arrival of Egyptian troops under the umbrella of the new AU mission in Somalia AUSSOM which the Rahanwayn clans are distrustful of.
4. Ethiopia will make sure LaftaGareen stays power.

HSM will eventually agree to an indirect elections but he will have a better control of federal electoral implementation team than Farmaajo was during his tenure. The election will be beyond 2026, I predict it will happen by the end of 2027.

Ethiopia will gradually retreat from the MOU they signed with Somaliland.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Puntland-SSCKhaatumo-Somaliland

There will be another war in the north, most likely this year, Somaliland will lose Ceerigaabo and some towns in Togdheer region, preferably towns that come under the jurisdiction of Buhodle, Qorligud etc.

Muse Bihi will use vote rigging and corruption to win the next election, or worse; he will use "we're at war" excuse to postpone elections and extend his term. The dude won't go away imo.

Warsangali won't agree to join SSC khaatumo thus hindering SSC khaatumo chances of fully becoming a Federal State.

Awdal won't rise up, most of their current elders and politicians in the region firmly believe that Somaliland gaining recognition will be excellent for their region.

Puntland will triumph against the fake constitution written by HSM. The first expansion phase of Bosaso port will finish this year, the second phase will start next year. The vital Garacad-Galdogob road will be completed in 18 months.

South and Central Somalia

Qoorqoor will lose the next elections, paving the way for Mahad Salaad to takeover. He will be the first Ceyr president in Galmudug. Post his election, I predict he will antagonise Marehan clans in the region by arming his HG clan. Shabaab will regain some territories they lost in recent battles due to Galmudug and FGS's preoccupation with local and federal elections. Ali Guudlaawe will lose his seat to a new Xawaadle president in Hirshabelle.

Ahmed Madobe will form his electoral commission this year winning another term as Jubaland president. Some OG politicians specially those of Awlyahan sub clan will declare the election rigged and unconstitutional but eventually in 2025 there will be an agreement forcing them to recognise his authority. Madoobe will keep the status quo, not bothering to liberate Middle Jubba, but he will fight with Shabab in Lower Jubba region. Marehan and their discontentment with his rule will increase.

LaftaGareen will copy Madoobe and form his own electoral commission achieving a landslide victory. This victory will be made possible by:

1. The FGS politics to undermine Rahanwayn MPs, threatening them with expulsion from the parliament.
2. The harsh toned vitriolic talks spewed by Hawiye elders, not to mention the recent tribal clashes in Yaaqbariweyne, Sh/Hoose.
3. The arrival of Egyptian troops under the umbrella of the new AU mission in Somalia AUSSOM which the Rahanwayn clans are distrustful of.
4. Ethiopia will make sure LaftaGareen stays power.

HSM will eventually agree to an indirect elections but he will have a better control of federal electoral implementation team than Farmaajo was during his tenure. The election will be beyond 2026, I predict it will happen by the end of 2027.

Ethiopia will gradually retreat from the MOU they signed with Somaliland.

Very powerful analysis of the nation politics of zero sum politics unlike PL the only region asking for a win win power arrangement in the nation, we don't play an obstacle to other clans nor do we really care about them deep down what they do but hawiye and isaaq clans have a total opposite policy they see your death or loss as some sort of sick win(zero sum) for them while they know it will just extend stalemate politics which I think they prefer to play so they can be corrupt and loot while in office.

What's your views on el dahir to erigavo road, me and my family went down to Melbourne to donate to the qof Iyo fuusto project and lots of other Hartis were there, it's a critical corridor for bosaso port and also warsangeli survival to connect it's towns for future development because right now due to no access lots of their ppl r not seeing benefits. We r very disappointed at the slow pace at that project but also generally across many big projects in Puntland.

We think the answer is we want our govt to finally purge the idiots who r their for personal gain and told go into the business community if you seek personal gain, but the govt is about the well being of all clans and public services. If your a true politician you desire a legacy not personal gain, cause your family will be remembered and honoured for generations to come a much better return on investment then short term gain.

The ultimate purpose of a govt is to work for the overall well being of the public and that should be their only interest but we see that formula not active and idiot personal interest people are inside public office.

 

[Karim]

Very powerful analysis of the nation politics of zero sum politics unlike PL the only region asking for a win win power arrangement in the nation, we don't play an obstacle to other clans nor do we really care about them deep down what they do but hawiye and isaaq clans have a total opposite policy they see your death or loss as some sort of sick win(zero sum) for them while they know it will just extend stalemate politics which I think they prefer to play so they can be corrupt and loot while in office.

What's your views on el dahir to erigavo road, me and my family went down to Melbourne to donate to the qof Iyo fuusto project and lots of other Hartis were there, it's a critical corridor for bosaso port and also warsangeli survival to connect it's towns for future development because right now due to no access lots of their ppl r not seeing benefits. We r very disappointed at the slow pace at that project but also generally across many big projects in Puntland.

We think the answer is we want our govt to finally purge the idiots who r their for personal gain and told go into the business community if you seek personal gain, but the govt is about the well being of all clans and public services. If your a true politician you desire a legacy not personal gain, cause your family will be remembered and honoured for generations to come a much better return on investment then short term gain.

The ultimate purpose of a govt is to work for the overall well being of the public and that should be their only interest but we see that formula not active and idiot personal interest people are inside public office.

The El Dahir-Erigavo Road had many setbacks, the road cannot be completed without the liberation of Erigavo imo. Maybe they can end it in Jidale town east of Erigavo in two years, I don't expect it to be finished sooner than that.

 

[berberaboy66]

How can ceerigaabo be lost if you believe warsangeli dont want to be a part of SSC?

 

[Fez]

Muse Bihi will use vote rigging and corruption to win the next election, or worse; he will use "we're at war" excuse to postpone elections and extend his term. The dude won't go away imo.

Musa bihi knows that would be utterly reckless which will keep SL from engaging in another confrontation.

Somaliland itself is on thin Ice so the coming elections need to happen

 

[Bazed]

So same shit different day.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

So same shit different day.

Seems like it, were cooked but Im pretty sure people irl are not as content as these guys are.

 

[Bazed]

Seems like it, were cooked but Im pretty sure people irl are not as content as these guys are.

I mean I'm not too surprised since it seems we have the worst political class in the world. Running on clan sentiment in 2024 is insane and by the time folk lock in I fear other nations will be terraforming Mars or something.

 

[NidarNidar]

If Bixi extends any election in SL, there will be another Habar Habar war, there might be a small-scale genocide of certain Haromo clan within SL.

 

[Karim]

Musa bihi knows that would be utterly reckless which will keep SL from engaging in another confrontation.

Somaliland itself is on thin Ice so the coming elections need to happen

Muse Bihi has two major clans within the Isaaq family structure supporting him through thick and thin, HJ believes the Garxajis abandoned them when SSC forces sacked Buqdharkeyn back in November. Garxajis elders called for harmony and cooperation, countering the growing momentum towards hostility from other Isaaq elders and said that their Garxajis clan would not enter the war.

I firmly believe Muse Bihi will win the election either by vote rigging and corruption OR he will start a war with SSC so he can postpone the election. What can Waddani party or the Garxajis clan do if SL starts an all-out war?! Are they going to fight the regime in Hargeisa when their tribesmen are busy fighting in the east?! That will be an unforgivable treachery that will echo through eternity. I hope I'm wrong but I can't see any other outcome from the upcoming SL election.

 

[Karim]

If Bixi extends any election in SL, there will be another Habar Habar war, there might be a small-scale genocide of certain Haromo clan within SL.

He can automatically extend it by initiating an all-out war with SSC. Waddani or the Garxajis clan cannot demand an election if the government is going through a major do or die war. What will they do?! Stab their tribesmen in the back while they're busy fighting?! That will be seen as a treacherous and unforgivable act that will taint Garxajis forever.

 

[Makadoor]

He can automatically extend it by initiating an all-out war with SSC. Waddani or the Garxajis clan cannot demand an election if the government is going through a major do or die war. What will they do?! Stab their tribesmen in the back while they're busy fighting?! That will be seen as a treacherous and unforgivable act that will taint Garxajis forever.

Garxajis don't have a choice. If they don't remove Bixi and he somehow returns, he and his cronies will dismantle GX piece by piece, ensuring they never threaten Jeegaan interests again. They cannot allow a Gacan Libaax fiasco to spark again. Their own Gudiga Guud called Jeegaan "ehlul naar" during that time.

 

[Karim]

Garxajis don't have a choice. If they don't remove Bixi and he somehow returns, he and his cronies will dismantle GX piece by piece, ensuring they never threaten Jeegaan interests again. They cannot allow a Gacan Libaax fiasco to spark again. Their own Gudiga Guud called Jeegaan "ehlul naar" during that time.

So you're saying if Muse Bihi starts war to postpone the election they will start their own war in Hargeisa and Burao?! Isn't that going to hurt them in the long run?! The rest of the Isaaq clans will forever see them as treacherous and untrustworthy.

 

[Awdalite]

So you're saying if Muse Bihi starts war to postpone the election they will start their own war in Hargeisa and Burao?! Isn't that going to hurt them in the long run?! The rest of the Isaaq clans will forever see them as treacherous and untrustworthy.

The only thing keeping SL stable right now is the Presidential elections. If Biixi attempts to derail SL will not exist in the way it is today. There will be a complete rupture. The only reason why the GX are holding back is because they expect to win the seat come November. If that doesn't happen it will be 1994 all over again but worse.

 

[Pearl of the Indian Ocean]

What makes you think the election will happen in 2027?

Would that even be allowed?

 

[Makadoor]

So you're saying if Muse Bihi starts war to postpone the election they will start their own war in Hargeisa and Burao?! Isn't that going to hurt them in the long run?! The rest of the Isaaq clans will forever see them as treacherous and untrustworthy.

Yep. The Gx Gacan Libaax militia refused to participate in Goojacade and instead attacked and killed soldiers and police until they were decisively brought down by their clansmen. That was essentially a prelude to what they plan to do if they don't get their way.

The HA/HJ already see them as treacherous for that, and they were classified as 'Cadowga gudaha' even before that. On top of this, there has been a massive smear campaign accusing them of other things, like colluding with the FGS.

 

[Karim]

What makes you think the election will happen in 2027?

Would that even be allowed?

Normally the election should happen in May, 2026 but HSM has plans to stay in office for several more years. So many politicians from his tribal enclave openly talk about his extension schemes and how he plans to stay until a universal election steered by him takes place. He believes that if Farmaajo stayed for 5 years and 3 months then he can easily stay more than that.