Professor Abdi Ismail Samatar “Arming tribes will condemn Somalia to perpetual hell”

[TekNiKo]

Mobilising balkanised tribal communities for war against al-Shabaab mimics the conditions that precipitated the civil war in the late 1980s. Somalia’s military regime had become renowned for its political tribalism and cruel suppression of political dissent.

Several opposition groups rose to oust the regime from power, but they failed to unite on a common political platform. Each group was organised along tribal lines. For instance, the earliest resistance group, the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF), came from the country’s north east.

At the same time, the Somali National Movement (SNM) and United Somali Congress (USC) originated from the north-central and south-central regions respectively. Each movement drew its leaders and members from its genealogical camp. Two issues were central to each group’s agenda: remove the regime from power and take control of the country without sharing a common agenda with other resistance movements.

The regime’s downfall accelerated once it indiscriminately used the country’s air and ground forces to bomb the second and fourth-largest cities to dislodge SNM. Hargeisa and Burao were destroyed, and thousands of innocent people were murdered.

These cities’ destruction superficially gave the regime a sense of victory, but the regime’s cruelty compelled other rebel groups to push for the dictator’s downfall. Fragmented along tribal factions and with no common national agenda, the USC made the final assault on Mogadishu and forced the dictator to flee the presidential palace in 1991.

Soon after the regime’s collapse, an insidious conflict emerged in Mogadishu between the different factions of USC while the SSDF confined itself to the north-east region of the country.

The struggle for the presidency within the USC culminated in the nastiest civil war that destroyed the capital city and all public infrastructure. Hundreds of thousands of people perished, and others fled Mogadishu for their ancestral regions. This madness completed the destruction of the Somali capital and initiated almost three decades of civil war and deep social and national dislocation.

Three awful things resulted from this idiocy.

First, the south has been balkanised into a tribal federation with few vestiges of a civic and national ethos. Second, Somaliland continues to claim to be a separate country, and the elite from the south of the old republic have yet to offer a prudent civic vision for the country that would attract the renegade region. Third, political representation in the federal government is based on tribal identity rather than inspiring political ideals. Thus, the president represents a particular group, as do the prime minister and MPs. This means that the political order and authority in the country are deeply segmented and not trusted.

To call for tribal groups to arm themselves and fight al-Shabaab without a national civic pact and credible national leadership is tantamount to repeating the mistakes of the 1980s and the 1990s that may yet usher in decades of internal conflict after al-Shabaab is defeated.

A progressive alternative​

An alternative to this rabbit hole is for the president to cease pretending that he has public trust. Instead, he should begin rebuilding his credibility as a national leader by acting on four issues. First, the PM and cabinet need to be replaced to bring on board a competent cadre of Somalis who can inspire the public and engender faith in politics. It is widely known that the current prime minister and his ministers were appointed as a facade allowing the president to be the executive authority rather than the head of state as the provisional constitution dictates.

Second, the new cabinet can prioritise rebuilding a professional and integrated national police and defence force within the next two years. In the meantime, the new prime minister and his team can seek more support from international allies to secure Mogadishu and liberate its denizens. A liberated Mogadishu will inspire the rest of the country.

Third, the people of the capital must be allowed to elect their mayor and city council within a year to signal the dawn of a new era. And finally, while the new PM and his team are engaged in this work, the president can devote much of his energy to securing food supplies for the famine victims.

Failing to heed the urgency of this agenda could condemn generations of Somalis to perpetual hell. DM

Wise words from the Professor will HAG take heed?

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

Let the the IC patched up system collapse

 

[Luffy]

He's right. Look what happened to Iraq after the end of the fight against ISIS The armed militia refused to lay down their arms

 

[cow]

He's right. Look what happened to Iraq after the end of the fight against ISIS The armed militia refused to lay down their arms

There is a reason why al shabab is in the south and specifically HAG lands.

Those lands from 1992 to 2006 had mooriyaan rule. A literal mad max society where anyone with a gun could kill, rape and loot anything he wanted without consequences.

Al shabaab are brutal but they have monopolised violence which you may think is a bad thing but compared the clan militias who fought constantly and killed on a much more frequent basis. One entity with monopoly on violence is better then 20 militias each vying for s piece of the pie.

What was needed was al shabaab to be replaced by the government. But the south is going backwards al shabab is being replaced by the same clan militias that caused havoc from 1992 to 2006.

 

[World]

There is a reason why al shabab is in the south and specifically HAG lands.

Those lands from 1992 to 2006 had mooriyaan rule. A literal mad max society where anyone with a gun could kill, rape and loot anything he wanted without consequences.

Al shabaab are brutal but they have monopolised violence which you may think is a bad thing but compared the clan militias who fought constantly and killed on a much more frequent basis. One entity with monopoly on violence is better then 20 militias each vying for s piece of the pie.

What was needed was al shabaab to be replaced by the government. But the south is going backwards al shabab is being replaced by the same clan militias that caused havoc from 1992 to 2006.

That is a good point.

To fully rule a territory requires the authority to violently control it if necessary. This is the source of Weber's well-known maxim: a state holds a monopoly over the legitimate use of violence within its territory, meaning that violence perpetrated by other actors is illegitimate.

 

[TekNiKo]

 

[Aurelian]

a professor saying what is obvious

 

[Prince of HS]

There is a reason why al shabab is in the south and specifically HAG lands.

Those lands from 1992 to 2006 had mooriyaan rule. A literal mad max society where anyone with a gun could kill, rape and loot anything he wanted without consequences.

Al shabaab are brutal but they have monopolised violence which you may think is a bad thing but compared the clan militias who fought constantly and killed on a much more frequent basis. One entity with monopoly on violence is better then 20 militias each vying for s piece of the pie.

What was needed was al shabaab to be replaced by the government. But the south is going backwards al shabab is being replaced by the same clan militias that caused havoc from 1992 to 2006.

according to your delusional stats, mx are majority in lower and middle jubba. so why is this the base of AS and the two gobols that are mainly controlled by AS with middle jubba being 100% AS controlled? is it because the people do not want to go back to the barre hiraale days of mooriyaanimo and rape?

 

[Mr. Wabrii]

Al shabab is in the south the Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba areas. Jilib, Dujama, Afmadow, Dhobley, Kulbiyow, Jilib, ect. When those strongholds are taken then Alshabaab will lose a lot of revenue, food, areas to recruit fresh troops ect, There needs to be a coordinated effort by Federal States to work together and push them into one area and then get ready for a big offensive.

 

[abz1991]

If the tribes are being armed then they should be armed equally as well as making a record of how much weapons are being given and who they are being given to.

 

[abz1991]

Al shabab is in the south the Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba areas. Jilib, Dujama, Afmadow, Dhobley, Kulbiyow, Jilib, ect. When those strongholds are taken then Alshabaab will lose a lot of revenue, food, areas to recruit fresh troops ect, There needs to be a coordinated effort by Federal States to work together and push them into one area and then get ready for a big offensive.

The issue is many of those regions you have mentioned are not occupied by Axmed Madoobes clan. Whats to say they go their under the guise of liberating the region and then go on to kill anything that breathes in those cities. The people in those cities have also been under Shabaab rule for over a decade. They may even end up defending Shabaab which may mean you will fight a whole village/city. There needs to be planning on how this will take place.

 

[Som]

Tribes are already armed. Not major Somali tribe has ever been unarmed in the last 30 years. If he thinks HAG are getting their hands on weapons for the first time he is clearly delusional, they had it even before the recent developments

 

[Prince of HS]

Tribes are already armed. Not major Somali tribe has ever been unarmed in the last 30 years. If he thinks HAG are getting their hands on weapons for the first time he is clearly delusional, they had it even before the recent developments

I saw a article few years back showing Abgaal, habargidir and mursade make up 60% of soilders under 'SNA'. They been armed

 

[Som]

I saw a article few years back showing Abgaal, habargidir and mursade make up 60% of soilders under 'SNA'. They been armed

I mean the normal civilian men from these clans already had weapons. Even Bantus and Madhibaan have tons of weapons. Everyone is armed is Somalia, if these people have enlisted in the SNA then it's another topic

 

[TekNiKo]

If the tribes are being armed then they should be armed equally as well as making a record of how much weapons are being given and who they are being given to.

Only Hawiyo clan are getting arms thats why JL and KG cant do any macawiisleey operations.

 

[El Nino]

Every clan in Somalia is already armed to the teeth, this is virtue signaling at its finest

Still, I agree with the second part of the article. Food aid to prevent the nationwide famine is the priority, unfortunately this ties to security too.

Muqdisho must be liberated and flushed from shabaab sympathisers. The shaydaans get millions from the capital and the sooner the money flow is closed, the better. Liberating Xamar indeed will inspire the nation.

 

[repo]

Only Hawiyo clan are getting arms thats why JL and KG cant do any macawiisleey operations.

Say mashAllah to that and support the state building of Jubbaland.

 

[Rationale]

Dirty waqooyi mps are there for the money, we don't want to hear their opinions.

 

[abz1991]

Only Hawiyo clan are getting arms thats why JL and KG cant do any macawiisleey operations.

KG doesnt want Macawiisley similar to Jubbaland. If their Daraawiish are well armed then there it will not be a big problem.

 

[Dalalos_ibn_Adali]

It will be total collapse, not only is it bad idea to arm clans it is the worst thing you can do.

So yeah unfortunately forget about lifting the arms embargo for the next couple of decades, forget about ATMIS leaving, and last but not least enjoy shit show.

It has already started with clan militia restarting checkpoints and what follows is attacking each other under the pretext of attacking alshaydaan.