Proxy war in the south

[Zak12]

Since its made clear by now that Ethiopia refuses to leave KGS, I think its likely that a proxy war will break out between FGS and Ethiopia in the south. I predict a swift FGS-Egyptian victory as Ethiopia can't afford a long term war in Somalia without leaving themselves vulnerable to their rebels. If there is any good opportunity to finally kick Ethiopia out, now is the time.

 

[wonyluvr]

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

 

[TheLand]

Since its made clear by now that Ethiopia refuses to leave KGS, I think its likely that a proxy war will break out between FGS and Ethiopia in the south. I predict a swift FGS-Egyptian victory as Ethiopia can't afford a long term war in Somalia without leaving themselves vulnerable to their rebels. If there is any good opportunity to finally kick Ethiopia out, now is the time.

Proxy war would mean Ethiopia wouldn't be fighting directly so how would they be leaving themselves vulnerable to their rebels? Also, those Ethiopians in the south have been there since the days of the Tigray regime and they still remain after their fall so I seriously doubt they will leave unless Ethiopia completely collapses. While that is possible, I suspect these Ethiopian troops have been funded by Arabs/The West for the last few decades to make sure terror groups don't spread so I think there is a possibility they could remain their independently regardless of what happens in Ethiopia.

 

[Zak12]

so how would they be leaving themselves vulnerable to their rebels?

If they were to move troops over to Somalia to support LG, they very much will be vulnerable. Just look at what happened in Al-Fashaga. ENDF left and the area was lost to militants and Sudan.

so I seriously doubt they will leave

I know. That is why I said a war will likely happen. FGS can't afford to have Ethiopians stay forever.

they could remain their independently regardless of what happens in Ethiopia

Without support of Ethiopia, they will quickly leave.

 

[FAST_LANE]

South West generates 500K -700K monthly tax revenue . All that HSM needs is to withhold their allocation for three months and they will go bankrupt. If Ethiopia can support them financially, HSM can’t do shit

 

[FBIsomalia]

Since its made clear by now that Ethiopia refuses to leave KGS, I think its likely that a proxy war will break out between FGS and Ethiopia in the south. I predict a swift FGS-Egyptian victory as Ethiopia can't afford a long term war in Somalia without leaving themselves vulnerable to their rebels. If there is any good opportunity to finally kick Ethiopia out, now is the time.

The main problem is Qoslaya acting as moryaan not as Somali leader. Before he stop his moriyanimo Ethiopia will stay in South Somalia.