Russia-Ukraine War
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Putin Edict on "Gas for Roubles" Consistent With Original Description (and Our Take); Western Officials Nevertheless Claim a Walkback | naked capitalism
Putin's gas for roubles plan was over-interpreted by foreign policy experts and media employees, and that's working out to Russia's advantage.
Ghengis Kaarhis
VIP
We can now safely say Russia lost the war.
They have been pushed back from Kiev. they still have not captured Mariupol which they surrounded 6 weeks ago. Kharkiv they are nowhere near the city and neither have they surrounded it.
they lost a lot of Generals and high ranking military commanders. I am now starting to believe the numbers of the Ukrainians put forth regarding Russian casualties. Russia probably lost between 7000 to 13000 soldiers so far.
To capture Kharkiv which is the 2nd largest city, at this rate going by Mauripol would take atleast 6 months. then we have Odessa and so many other cities from Odessa to Kiev.
the war is lost for Russia, in fact i would say it damaged their military industrial complex. Russia is the 2nd biggest exporter of military equipment after US, i bet now a lot of countries are looking at Russian tanks/helicopter/planes and are not impressed.
They have been pushed back from Kiev. they still have not captured Mariupol which they surrounded 6 weeks ago. Kharkiv they are nowhere near the city and neither have they surrounded it.
they lost a lot of Generals and high ranking military commanders. I am now starting to believe the numbers of the Ukrainians put forth regarding Russian casualties. Russia probably lost between 7000 to 13000 soldiers so far.
To capture Kharkiv which is the 2nd largest city, at this rate going by Mauripol would take atleast 6 months. then we have Odessa and so many other cities from Odessa to Kiev.
the war is lost for Russia, in fact i would say it damaged their military industrial complex. Russia is the 2nd biggest exporter of military equipment after US, i bet now a lot of countries are looking at Russian tanks/helicopter/planes and are not impressed.
Nilotic
VIP
Russia has not lost the war, however, it has demonstrated certain deficiencies in their intelligence, logistics, communications and operational capability.
The Coalition invaded Iraq with almost half a million troops and the Russians invaded a much larger Nation with a force size almost 3x smaller...
..In addition to this, Ukraine is being provided with real time military intelligence and billions of dollars in military assistance.
The war in the Donbass will decide it all and Russia will eventually prevail in that region -- especially now that it has acquired half of the territory and forced the Ukrainians into cauldrons.
The Coalition invaded Iraq with almost half a million troops and the Russians invaded a much larger Nation with a force size almost 3x smaller...
..In addition to this, Ukraine is being provided with real time military intelligence and billions of dollars in military assistance.
The war in the Donbass will decide it all and Russia will eventually prevail in that region -- especially now that it has acquired half of the territory and forced the Ukrainians into cauldrons.
I thought Ukrainians will give up within days but there is no indication for that sofar, and if the ukranians refuse to give up and has handful percent of the general population loyal to Ukrainian regime then russia will never decisively win this war cuz even if they fail to resist against russians in conventional warfare they will resort to guerilla and that would be a bad scenario for putin cuz guerilla with popular base and supporting neighbouring countries wont be defeated forever.
Russia spends almost 65 billion dollars a year on its military. Ukraine spends 6 billion. even if Ukraine gets real-time satellite imagery or even couple of billion from the west it should still not be enough.
Russia should have stream rolled into Ukraine. however if we actually look at the average russian soldier majority of them still use the old AK-74 while only the special forces use AK-12 even then majority of the AK-12 soldiers don't use scope.
While the Americans provided scopes for their front line soldiers back in the mid to late 2000's. that is without even mentioned the lack of drones to lack of air control even almost 2 months later. Russia has 1 thousand satellites and has a further 2 thousand old soviet satellites. yet they still cannot control the battlefield.
Economically so far Russia is ok, however they lost the war. Putin miscalculated, he thought he could capture Ukraine with only 200k soldiers propped up by another 100k from Donbass. yet 7 weeks later they are still fighting in Mauripol and have abandoned Kiev.
Russia lack of air control, lack of drones, lack of survailance and lack of real saboteurs/intel cost them this war.
they should have had spies everywhere before even starting this war.
Nilotic
VIP
I think the Russians miscalculated the resolve, strength and resilience of the Ukrainian military and have suffered humiliating defeats and setbacks as a result.
I don't think the Russians are going to commit to occupying lands East of the Dnieper River; they will confine themselves to Russian speaking areas in Novorossiya (new Russia) in the East.
Russia will then continue to subject the rest of Ukraine to aerial bombardments and cruise-ballistic missile strikes until the rest of Ukraine agrees to a Federated arrangement in which Ukraine is rendered neutral and demilitarised.
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damn, Russian genocide of liberated areas are all over the internet. Damn the Russkie were salty about losing so much that they started killing a lot of civilians women, kids and young men.
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Nilotic
VIP
This is precisely why none of Russia's neighbours want anything to do with them.
I think a lot of people have the wrong idea about how a military campaign is supposed to play out. Most military campaigns take months to achieve real results, this isn't a Russian blitzkrieg. Even when the Germans invaded Poland a much weaker country in Sep 1939 they took a month to take half of the country, as the other half was invaded by the Soviets.
I'm not sure what the Russian strategy is obviously but it seems they have pulled back from one sector of the advance. Namely the areas around Kyiv but for what reason I'm not sure but I don't really think it's primarily because of the Ukrainians.
It's foolish to start claiming one side has won the war and the other side has lost because we aren't aware of the full situation.
mrlog
VIP
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The coalition was facing a military of 3.5 million soldiers and Russia is facing a military of 200K.
Furthermore, Russia has no interest in Western Ukraine. Their objective was Kyiv and everything east of it, as that area can be surrounded from three sides (Belarus, Crimea and Russia).
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