Kool-Aid
VIP
The war is not over. Don't know why they're celebrating.
Russia-Ukraine War
- Thread starter Kool-Aid
- Start date
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Russia are only controlling 2 and a half provinces before the invasion. They’ve lost all their other gains. The momentum is going one way and people are outright defying Putin in his own country now.
Unless he decides to deploy tactical nukes, there’s only one way this is going as Ukraine is receiving more and more NATO weapons and training, while having a 8-1 manpower advantage in a country where they have all the supply roots.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
bidenkulaha
GalYare
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Nilotic
VIP
This war is far from over, and I doubt that Ukraine will prevail when it's all said and done; Russia is currently using a very small contingent of their army (10%) and they may now actually increase this by many times over.
People underestimate how bad this war is for Ukraine in the long-run because they have in mind the post-WW2 model of recovery, but the war is going to have very different consequences in our low-fertility world. If the war lasts past 2023, there won't be a Ukraine.
Once it has lost hundreds of thousands of the few young men it has, and millions of refugees — disproportionately educated young women — have made a new life abroad and won't come back, it will be next to impossible for the country to recover even with massive reconstruction aid.
Russia controls Ukraine's industrial heartland, 90% of its energy resources (including all of its offshore oil), and its critical ports and shipping. 70% of Ukraine's Exports (35billion yearly) have to go with Russia's blessing through the Black Sea. It's already highly likely that Ukraine will lose some of its production capacity permanently – e.g. just the destruction of Mariupol and its two large steel and metal work plants will mean a permanent loss of about a third of metals output. The Ukrainian GDP will contract by 50%, there is over $800 billion in property damage and the forecast recovery path for Ukraine is far shallower since recovery tends to be much harder in industrial or service-based supply chains, and the impact on capital and total factor productivity is therefore going to be far larger. Ukraine will reach pre-war GDP by 2034 according to Oxford Economics, keep in mind thats WITH WESTERN AID
Not being funny, what is worth that level of carnarge? They're not joining NATO or the EU.
reer
VIP
also russia isnt a democracy where putin can prolong the war and pass the baton and blame on to the next president unlike bush obama trump etc. putin has more incentive for russia to win and finish the war than bush in iraq. or nato in libya.
Actually, they’re using most of their active forces in the conflict.
What your calculating is the amount of Russians with military training/reserves, but it’s well known they’re not desirable.
As most of soldiers being used now are sadly ethnic minorities being used as cannon fodder, using the reserves which are mainly ethnic Russian will cause backlash if they die in huge numbers. Therefore, Russia is not seeking to make the reality of this war more known by tapping up their reserves.
It’s getting to the point where they’re coercing prisoners to fight as mercenaries.
Russia's Wagner boss: It's prisoners fighting in Ukraine, or your children
The head of the Russian mercenary group defends sending convicts to the Ukraine front line.
www.bbc.com
As I said earlier, they will be easy because the vast majority of the population don’t have a tie to prisoners.
Putin is a moron russia lost this war because of him. He should have done a scotch earth tactic. Where he took out all of Ukraine's power stations. Then railways then bridges. The food silos.
But the moron thought he could capture Ukraine with para troopers and Ukrainian people would welcome him with open arms.
But the moron thought he could capture Ukraine with para troopers and Ukrainian people would welcome him with open arms.
Nilotic
VIP
Actually, they’re using most of their active forces in the conflict.
What your calculating is the amount of Russians with military training/reserves, but it’s well known they’re not desirable.
As most of soldiers being used now are sadly ethnic minorities being used as cannon fodder, using the reserves which are mainly ethnic Russian will cause backlash if they die in huge numbers. Therefore, Russia is not seeking to make the reality of this war more known by tapping up their reserves.
It’s getting to the point where they’re coercing prisoners to fight as mercenaries.
Russia's Wagner boss: It's prisoners fighting in Ukraine, or your children
The head of the Russian mercenary group defends sending convicts to the Ukraine front line.
As I said earlier, they will be easy because the vast majority of the population don’t have a tie to prisoners.
I'm sorry but there is simply no way that 80-150k Russian troops represent the bulk of their active personnel. Russia has almost 700, 000 active personnel and 2 million reserves.
From the Center of Strategic & International Studies:
Source:
Source:
bidenkulaha
GalYare
It’ll dawn on people soon that Russia has lost. Till then we can follow the Ukraine offensives. Russia does not have the army to change the momentum. He hasn’t got any public support to recruit reserves so good luck fighting a 8-1 man disadvantage war
Your source is the BBC, are you being serious?Actually, they’re using most of their active forces in the conflict.
What your calculating is the amount of Russians with military training/reserves, but it’s well known they’re not desirable.
As most of soldiers being used now are sadly ethnic minorities being used as cannon fodder, using the reserves which are mainly ethnic Russian will cause backlash if they die in huge numbers. Therefore, Russia is not seeking to make the reality of this war more known by tapping up their reserves.
It’s getting to the point where they’re coercing prisoners to fight as mercenaries.
Russia's Wagner boss: It's prisoners fighting in Ukraine, or your children
The head of the Russian mercenary group defends sending convicts to the Ukraine front line.
As I said earlier, they will be easy because the vast majority of the population don’t have a tie to prisoners.
This Ukrainian counter offensive seems too good to be true in my opinion and even if it has taken place, how significant is it? They haven't retaken anything meaningful, they've supposedly recaptured a few areas (such as Izyum & Balakliya) in the Kharkhiv region.
However if the reports that the Ukrainians have taken Kupiansk is true, this might effect the logistical situation for the Russian units in area. There isn't any reliable info that the Russians have completely evacuated Kupiansk tbh.
It seems that this was only possible because the Russian forces pulled back beforehand from most areas in Kharkhiv region. The Russians never really put too much pressure in the Kharkhiv region like they did in the Donbas and Pryazovia region.
However if the reports that the Ukrainians have taken Kupiansk is true, this might effect the logistical situation for the Russian units in area. There isn't any reliable info that the Russians have completely evacuated Kupiansk tbh.
It seems that this was only possible because the Russian forces pulled back beforehand from most areas in Kharkhiv region. The Russians never really put too much pressure in the Kharkhiv region like they did in the Donbas and Pryazovia region.
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There is no Ukraine putting Russia on the "backfoot", the Russians merely retreated, the reason why this is being spun as a PR win for the Ukraine should be ringing some bells.
Putin made it clear in 2007 Munich conference that a hostile Ukraine on Russia's border was unacceptable, heck the reason why Ukraine even exists was to serve as a buffer state against NATO.
This fight was never about the people of Ukraine, I'd argue they despise them just as much if not more than the Russians. It was never about democracy, or peace, or international 'values', (was it ever really?) it was to always dismember, plunder and destroy Russia, just like the Yeltsin years. Russia was brought to her news by oligarchies and neoliberal bankers, exact same thing happening to Libya and Yemen now.
Ukraine's industries have been sold off to Blackrock and other associated companies, their once lauded agricultural sector is under foreign hands, every single national asset of value has been stripped of the Ukrainian citizen.
Ukraine is quite literally the Somalia of Europe, how sad they trusted the West to wage a war that will end up forever destroying the fabric of their society and plunging their nation into irrelevancy.
I agree with you that this recent "offensive" in all likelihood hasn't put the Russians on the backfoot in terms of their wider strategy. It only appears so when you hear the Ukrainians have recaptured areas. That's why I said that this is more of a political win for Zelensky than any real meaningful military victory.
Read my other earlier comment about what I think is happening.
Absolutely, the crazy part about all this is the Russians not taking their gloves off and engaging the Ukraine with extreme caution, that is limited strikes on military infrastructure and hardware. I mean they have every right to go full scorch earth on them seeing as the US had no qualms attacking dams, civilian infrastructure, bridges, farms, factories etc. in Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan and so on.
I think after this performance in the Kharkhiv region they will have to start getting more serious. If they completely give up the Kharkhiv region to the Ukrainians, it can be used as a position to threaten the Donbas.
I think the Russians have done scorch earth tactics, since they cut the the electricity & water supply to Kharkhiv city during their withdrawal causing a complete blackout on Sunday.
The Western supply of miliary equipment to Ukraine seems to be doing a bit of damage to Russian logistical and weapon facilities. I still don't think this has had any significant affect though on the capabilities of the Russian army in general.
Molotoff
VIP
I follow pro-putinist serbian media (both mainstream and alternative media) and they say that the withdrawal from the Kharkiv region by the russian was part of their strategy to lure out the Ukrainians from Kharkiv (where their elite units are, Ukrainian stronghold) and then to destroy them with heavy aviation bombardement in the open.
Your thoughts on this theory @HiraanBorn @Chase @Nilotic @bidenkulaha @Periplus @reer @Kool-Aid
Your thoughts on this theory @HiraanBorn @Chase @Nilotic @bidenkulaha @Periplus @reer @Kool-Aid
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