1ST JUNE 2018
Far from being on the brink of defeat, Al Shabaab is improving its propaganda and still holding its own on the military front
Al Shabaab's leader, Abu Ubaydah, made a major speech on jihadist broadcast media on 18 May marking the beginning of Ramadan and setting out his political stall, scotching rumours of his death. Talk had been flying around Nairobi and Mogadishu that he was dying of kidney failure after being bedridden for six months and a succession battle was in full spate. On 24 May Washington tried to make the rumour reality and killed 10 fighters in an air strike, but not the elusive commander.
Abu Ubaydah's speech offers an update on his style of leadership of the Al Qaeda-affiliate and Al Shabaab's strategy. In-depth examination of the speech reveals first some rhetorical talent. He emulates Ahmed Abdi Godane, his predecessor as leader of the Islamist militia, who was killed in a United States drone strike in September 2014, in quoting verses from the Koran, and citing hadiths and Somali poetry, as well as the customary condemnations of Shabaab's enemies (AC Vol 55 No 18, Reports of his death… the UPDATE).
Analysts suggest that although Abu Ubaydah is known as a Koranic teacher, he could not have written the speech by himself because he is not thought to have enough Islamic academic expertise to be able to comment, as he did, on Ibn Taymiyyah, a medieval scholar revered by modern Salafists. It also indicates that his inner circle of aides and lieutenants was not broken up, as claimed in Western and East African intelligence circles, because several educated hands must have contributed to the speech. It was very clearly structured and accessible to a wide public, including opinions many Somalis also have. Not all of his previous speeches have been as clearly understandable.
Abu Ubaydah declared that Ramadan was not only time for worshipping but also time for Jihad, a point made by all Jihadists. They want Jihad to be considered the sixth pillar of Islam, which Islamic dogma rejects.
Heavy price
Although the US's Africa Command and the Somali government claim that Al Shabaab was severely weakened, Abu Ubaydah reminded that, over the last few months, his movement had been able to kill over 100 African Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and Somali soldiers, which is believed to be true. Although Amisom and the foreign press do not talk much about it, skirmishes in Lower Shabelle and Lower and Middle Juba have exacted a heavy price on the international force this spring.
Abu Ubaydah had predictable words for President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo', repeating Farmajo's own admission that the Somali National Army does not know what it is fighting for. Somali officials often say that one of the main differences between the two sides is that an SNA soldier fears that if he kills an Al Shabaab fighter he may go to hell, while the latter believe that if they kill a government official, they go to paradise. He could equally have mocked the Baydhabo gathering of federal states in mid-May. They claimed that international resources to build a national army should be given to them, not to a central government that has already failed.
Abu Ubaydah made another important point to support his anti-government stance: he described the diaspora politicians who populate Parliament and the government as mere mercenaries. This point tends to hit home, especially with those resentful at the fact that two-thirds of the 350 taking part in the Consultative Constitution Gathering in Mogadishu are from the diaspora.
The Al Shabaab leader also talked about the Gulf crisis and the rivalry between Turkey and United Arab Emirates, reminding them that Al Shabaab cursed both their houses. Turkey is a NATO member and the UAE ruler is a close friend of US President Donald Trump. Neither country, in his view, could be called Islamic or be said to support the interests of the Somali population. He confirmed that their assets are targets, echoing a statement by Sheikh Abdi Asis Abu Musab, a spokesman of the military wing of Al Shabaab a few days before.
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2018
Far from being on the brink of defeat, Al Shabaab is improving its propaganda and still holding its own on the military front
Al Shabaab's leader, Abu Ubaydah, made a major speech on jihadist broadcast media on 18 May marking the beginning of Ramadan and setting out his political stall, scotching rumours of his death. Talk had been flying around Nairobi and Mogadishu that he was dying of kidney failure after being bedridden for six months and a succession battle was in full spate. On 24 May Washington tried to make the rumour reality and killed 10 fighters in an air strike, but not the elusive commander.
Abu Ubaydah's speech offers an update on his style of leadership of the Al Qaeda-affiliate and Al Shabaab's strategy. In-depth examination of the speech reveals first some rhetorical talent. He emulates Ahmed Abdi Godane, his predecessor as leader of the Islamist militia, who was killed in a United States drone strike in September 2014, in quoting verses from the Koran, and citing hadiths and Somali poetry, as well as the customary condemnations of Shabaab's enemies (AC Vol 55 No 18, Reports of his death… the UPDATE).
Analysts suggest that although Abu Ubaydah is known as a Koranic teacher, he could not have written the speech by himself because he is not thought to have enough Islamic academic expertise to be able to comment, as he did, on Ibn Taymiyyah, a medieval scholar revered by modern Salafists. It also indicates that his inner circle of aides and lieutenants was not broken up, as claimed in Western and East African intelligence circles, because several educated hands must have contributed to the speech. It was very clearly structured and accessible to a wide public, including opinions many Somalis also have. Not all of his previous speeches have been as clearly understandable.
Abu Ubaydah declared that Ramadan was not only time for worshipping but also time for Jihad, a point made by all Jihadists. They want Jihad to be considered the sixth pillar of Islam, which Islamic dogma rejects.
Heavy price
Although the US's Africa Command and the Somali government claim that Al Shabaab was severely weakened, Abu Ubaydah reminded that, over the last few months, his movement had been able to kill over 100 African Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and Somali soldiers, which is believed to be true. Although Amisom and the foreign press do not talk much about it, skirmishes in Lower Shabelle and Lower and Middle Juba have exacted a heavy price on the international force this spring.
Abu Ubaydah had predictable words for President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo', repeating Farmajo's own admission that the Somali National Army does not know what it is fighting for. Somali officials often say that one of the main differences between the two sides is that an SNA soldier fears that if he kills an Al Shabaab fighter he may go to hell, while the latter believe that if they kill a government official, they go to paradise. He could equally have mocked the Baydhabo gathering of federal states in mid-May. They claimed that international resources to build a national army should be given to them, not to a central government that has already failed.
Abu Ubaydah made another important point to support his anti-government stance: he described the diaspora politicians who populate Parliament and the government as mere mercenaries. This point tends to hit home, especially with those resentful at the fact that two-thirds of the 350 taking part in the Consultative Constitution Gathering in Mogadishu are from the diaspora.
The Al Shabaab leader also talked about the Gulf crisis and the rivalry between Turkey and United Arab Emirates, reminding them that Al Shabaab cursed both their houses. Turkey is a NATO member and the UAE ruler is a close friend of US President Donald Trump. Neither country, in his view, could be called Islamic or be said to support the interests of the Somali population. He confirmed that their assets are targets, echoing a statement by Sheikh Abdi Asis Abu Musab, a spokesman of the military wing of Al Shabaab a few days before.
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2018
