Somalia industrial manufactering sector and GDP

[Mr_Guul]

Can Somalia increase it GDP to 250 billion or 500 billion dollars, if the government invested heavily in its manufactering and establishes industrial manufactering
zones in Mogadisho.Hargeysa, Bosaso,Kismayo to produce Textile,Pharmaceutical,electronics,Automotives,Defence,steel,perfume, Food processing and construction equipment and material. Somalia need to cooperate with countries like China,Turkey,Korea,Serbia,Spain,Hungary,Malayasia in these key areas. Inshallah Somalia will be prosperous inshallah.

 

[GemState]

East Africa needs its own Taiheiyō Belt

'Also known as the Tōkaidō corridor, is the megalopolis in Japan extending from Ibaraki Prefecture in the northeast to Fukuoka Prefecture in the southwest, running for almost 1,200 km (750 mi). Its population is about 74.7 million.

The urbanization zone runs mainly along the Pacific coast (hence the name) of Japan from Kantō region to Osaka, and the Inland Sea (on both sides) to Fukuoka, and is concentrated along the Tōkaidō-Sanyō rail corridor. A view of Japan at night clearly shows a rather dense and continuous strip of light (demarcating urban zones) that delineates the region.[1] The high population is particularly due to the large plains – the Kantō Plain, Kinai Plain, and Nōbi Plain – which facilitate building in mountainous Japan.

Although the Taiheiyō Belt contains the majority of Japan's population, references to the term in Japanese are mainly economic or regional in nature. The term was first used in 1960 in an Economic Commission Subcommittee Report formed to double the national income. At that time, it was identified as the core of the nation's industrial complex. Other than the Miyagi area, nearly all manufacturing industry in the nation lies in this zone, accounting for 81% of the nation's economic output in 2007 (about US$4–5 trillion).'

A megapolis connecting DarEs Salaam-Mombasa-Xamar (1600km) would be great

Addis-Berbera-Djibouti is another one

Wallah Somalia could 5x our GDP by 2030 through just roads

 

[xLibaxsenderx]

What does somalia currently manufacture?

 

[Kramer]

Can Somalia increase it GDP to 250 billion or 500 billion dollars, if the government invested heavily in its manufactering and establishes industrial manufactering
zones in Mogadisho.Hargeysa, Bosaso,Kismayo to produce Textile,Pharmaceutical,electronics,Automotives,Defence,steel,perfume, Food processing and construction equipment and material. Somalia need to cooperate with countries like China,Turkey,Korea,Serbia,Spain,Hungary,Malayasia in these key areas. Inshallah Somalia will be prosperous inshallah.

energy energy energy

Before you can even think about manufacturing anything you need a steady supply of cheap electricity, whether its gas or wind or coal, It has to be cost efficient and cheaper to make it at home that importing it from else where. so and it comes down to energy costs.

Plus it makes no sense to jump into heavy industries (steel,electronics,Pharma) without first developing your light industries ( Foods, Cement, Textiles, ) which require less raw materials and are more suited towards developing countries.

Bari has the raw materials for cement construction so does berbera.

I know hargesia currently has/had some light manufacturing industries ( flour mills, cement , Food products, Plastics) And puntland aswell ( boat manufacturing, Commercial fisheries)

Baby steps and it could be done. Good thing is huge positive changes in the last 10 years.

 

[Yusuf Abdi Ali Rashid]

Can Somalia increase it GDP to 250 billion or 500 billion dollars, if the government invested heavily in its manufactering and establishes industrial manufactering
zones in Mogadisho.Hargeysa, Bosaso,Kismayo to produce Textile,Pharmaceutical,electronics,Automotives,Defence,steel,perfume, Food processing and construction equipment and material. Somalia need to cooperate with countries like China,Turkey,Korea,Serbia,Spain,Hungary,Malayasia in these key areas. Inshallah Somalia will be prosperous inshallah.

Gotta start small saxib, Textiles is the way. Bangladesh is one of the worlds fastest growing economies and they grow their economy primarily based on textiles. we have a cheap and young labor force which is a big advantage.

 

[Ras]

energy energy energy

Before you can even think about manufacturing anything you need a steady supply of cheap electricity, whether its gas or wind or coal, It has to be cost efficient and cheaper to make it at home that importing it from else where. so and it comes down to energy costs.

Plus it makes no sense to jump into heavy industries (steel,electronics,Pharma) without first developing your light industries ( Foods, Cement, Textiles, ) which require less raw materials and are more suited towards developing countries.

Bari has the raw materials for cement construction so does berbera.

I know hargesia currently has/had some light manufacturing industries ( flour mills, cement , Food products, Plastics) And puntland aswell ( boat manufacturing, Commercial fisheries)

Baby steps and it could be done. Good thing is huge positive changes in the last 10 years.

100% agree with the energy part.

However baby steps won't do in our case unfortunately.

Today's global market is super saturated and the light industrial market super difficult for 2 main reasons:

1. China - biggest open economies like the US is being dominated by China. We could maybe compete with our cheaper labor but if we ever end up being too competitive they can afford to lose money to price us out (WTO won't help us).

2. Less open economies like our neighbors are super protectionist. Most large industries are owned by politicians so they won't play fair. Only products they'll tolerate are stuff essential to them ( tech, machinery, knowledge etc).

However like you emphasized it's all moot without competitively priced electricity.

Economy size = energy capacity

We're relying on diesel powdered shitty generators that cost us $1+ per kwh...

Globally we might have the most expensive power in the world.

 

[Ras]

Even Solar isn't competitive but still 5x cheaper than diesel.

More importantly we need a more reliable power grid. If it can't be sustained profitably in cities then just focus on industrial zones and you cut the price per KWh in half.

Next we need to build a small LNG terminal asap.

Nothing would come close to the low cost of natural gas (even LNG) in Somalia.

Solar requires batteries or a decent grid. Natural gas has multiple uses including industrial processes.

Max 10 cents per Kwh sold wholesale to factories or we might as well not even bother.

 

[Kramer]

100% agree with the energy part.

However baby steps won't do in our case unfortunately.

Today's global market is super saturated and the light industrial market super difficult for 2 main reasons:

1. China - biggest open economies like the US is being dominated by China. We could maybe compete with our cheaper labor but if we ever end up being too competitive they can afford to lose money to price us out (WTO won't help us).

2. Less open economies like our neighbors are super protectionist. Most large industries are owned by politicians so they won't play fair. Only products they'll tolerate are stuff essential to them ( tech, machinery, knowledge etc).

However like you emphasized it's all moot without competitively priced electricity.

Economy size = energy capacity

We're relying on diesel powdered shitty generators that cost us $1+ per kwh...

Globally we might have the most expensive power in the world.

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[Kramer]

Even Solar isn't competitive but still 5x cheaper than diesel.

More importantly we need a more reliable power grid. If it can't be sustained profitably in cities then just focus on industrial zones and you cut the price per KWh in half.

Next we need to build a small LNG terminal asap.

Nothing would come close to the low cost of natural gas (even LNG) in Somalia.

Solar requires batteries or a decent grid. Natural gas has multiple uses including industrial processes.

Max 10 cents per Kwh sold wholesale to factories or we might as well not even bother.

Gas is the way to go power wise.

No one uses diseal generators anymore except as a backup, too costly

 

[rep]

Extremely unrealistic due to lack of education, nutrition, security and level of public health the government doesn't have the funds or power to implement the level of education needed to attract investment for such a transformation .

How can you build good enouch secondary industries to compete when most people can't read or have acces to adequate food which in turn effects their level of intelligence i just don't see it tbh .

 

[Mr_Guul]

Extremely unrealistic due to lack of education, nutrition, security and level of public health the government doesn't have the funds or power to implement the level of education needed to attract investment for such a transformation .

How can you build good enouch secondary industries to compete when most people can't read or have acces to adequate food which in turn effects their level of intelligence i just don't see it tbh .

Your dumb and pessimatic, businessmen back home or government whether public or private sector (most likely private sector) can start with the basics of assembling cars in CKD/SKD through cooperating with foreign companies in order to gain technology transfer and know how same with electronics,pharmaceutical,sugar and steel if we start off with the basics then in time will progress towards light manufactering to heavy manufactering.

 

[El Nino]

Somalia needs to start using gas ASAP, at the moment we are using charcoal which is one of the leading reasons why our country is rapidly deforesting.

Senegal Could Halve Electricity Prices Using Domestic Gas

On the cusp of overcoming an entrenched energy shortage, Senegal is poised for expanded electrification through integrated gas value chains.

energycapitalpower.com

Senegal is working together with Germany to produce gas for its own use and for exports. What countries could partner with Somalia to profuce gas? I wished Turkey did this but highly unlikely. UAE or any of the gulf states are not going to help.

 

[Ras]

Somalia needs to start using gas ASAP, at the moment we are using charcoal which is one of the leading reasons why our country is rapidly deforesting.

Senegal Could Halve Electricity Prices Using Domestic Gas

On the cusp of overcoming an entrenched energy shortage, Senegal is poised for expanded electrification through integrated gas value chains.

energycapitalpower.com

Senegal is working together with Germany to produce gas for its own use and for exports. What countries could partner with Somalia to profuce gas? I wished Turkey did this but highly unlikely. UAE or any of the gulf states are not going to help.

LNG suppliers will flood the market in the next 10 years.

We just need to build some cheap terminals, fix up our ports so we can berth large LNG tankers and build some pipelines to cities not on our coast.

LNG costs $0.08 cents per KWh (excluding power & gas distribution) Expensive but it makes industrialization more feasible.

Fortunately most our population is within 50 KM of ports.

Inshallah we'll have the Galbeed providing us with cheap gas in the near future but we need the infrastructure first.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Somalia's population is projected to grow by an average of 2.4% per year until 2072.
Let us assume an average GDP growth rate of 5%, this is fairly optimistic but it is possible for a country as distant from the tech frontier as Somalia.

5% GDP Growth rate - 2.4% population growth rate= 2.6% GDP per capita growth from now until 2072.

If Somalia's population grows as the UN expects, it would reach 53.5 million in 2072.
Somalia's GDP per capita rises to $1350 after 50 years of 2.6% growth, and Somalia's overall GDP would reach $72 billion in 2072.

Economic growth is slower than most think. Somalia will remain desperately poor for the foreseeable future. The only way it would be possible for Somalia to escape this poverty before the 2100s would be the Developed World (Anglosphere, EU, East Asia) becoming so rich that it costs them little to help Africa escape poverty.

 

[EDsomali]

Tamar la'aan waa horumar la'aan.

Soomaaliya iyo Afrika oo dhan waxay u bahan tahay in ay aad iyo aad u kordhiso soo saaristii tamarta iyo korontada. Wax kasta baa baahan tamar- soo saaarista alaabada, dhismaha (hawl aad u tamar baahan), shaqaynta warshedaha, beerashada, nadiifinta biyaha iyo iwm.

Is-barbar dhig dalalka dhaqaalaha waa weyn ee adduunka iyo kuwi dhaqaale yaryar.

Adeegsigii korontada ee kiilowaatkiiba saacadood (kW/S) qofkiiba 2020.

Dalalkii dhakhli yar 170 kW/S qofkiiba.
Dalalkii Dhakhli weyn- 8728 kW/S qofkiiba.
Soomaaliya- 22 kW/S qofkiiba.

Soomaalidu waxay ka mashquulan qabiil iyo doqonimo, Mustaqbalka way mugdisan tahay.

 

[Ras]

Tamar la'aan waa horumar la'aan.

Soomaaliya iyo Afrika oo dhan waxay u bahan tahay in ay aad iyo aad u kordhiso soo saaristii tamarta iyo korontada. Wax kasta baa baahan tamar- soo saaarista alaabada, dhismaha (hawl aad u tamar baahan), shaqaynta warshedaha, beerashada, nadiifinta biyaha iyo iwm.

Is-barbar dhig dalalka dhaqaalaha waa weyn ee adduunka iyo kuwi dhaqaale yaryar.

Adeegsigii korontada ee kiilowaatkiiba saacadood (kW/S) qofkiiba 2020.

Dalalkii dhakhli yar 170 kW/S qofkiiba.
Dalalkii Dhakhli weyn- 8728 kW/S qofkiiba.
Soomaaliya- 22 kW/S qofkiiba.

Soomaalidu waxay ka mashquulan qabiil iyo doqonimo, Mustaqbalka way mugdisan tahay.

People that benefit from the status quo are incentivized to push the chaos and conflict.

No doubt the diesel and charcoal importers wouldn't mind the high electricity prices.

Wonder how much tax they provide to AS...

 

[Burqad]

Somalia's population is projected to grow by an average of 2.4% per year until 2072.
Let us assume an average GDP growth rate of 5%, this is fairly optimistic but it is possible for a country as distant from the tech frontier as Somalia.

5% GDP Growth rate - 2.4% population growth rate= 2.6% GDP per capita growth from now until 2072.

If Somalia's population grows as the UN expects, it would reach 53.5 million in 2072.
Somalia's GDP per capita rises to $1350 after 50 years of 2.6% growth, and Somalia's overall GDP would reach $72 billion in 2072.

Economic growth is slower than most think. Somalia will remain desperately poor for the foreseeable future. The only way it would be possible for Somalia to escape this poverty before the 2100s would be the Developed World (Anglosphere, EU, East Asia) becoming so rich that it costs them little to help Africa escape poverty.

Somalia’s gdp according to private industry estimates is already 30 billion or so, 5 billion is impossible when the influx of forex is 2 billion a year.

The average Somali spends around 2266 dollars on mobile money transactions alone (according to Hormuud) yet the GDP per capita is claimed to be 500 dollars per person.

 

[Coastal]

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Protectionism always leads to worse outcomes in the the short and long term. From the the 19th century British corn laws to the recent US baby formula shortages, protectionism leaves consumers and entrepreneurs worse off.

Somalia needs unilateral free trade with all countries on earth, providing consumers with higher quality goods and services for a lower cost whilst also benefitting entrepreneurs with lower input costs.

 

[El Nino]

@GemState

We need galbeed back to ensure our rivers are not banned and get closer to future 200 million region of Ethiopian highlands. Kenya and Tanzanias population are also rising, especially Tanzania. Somalis should make connections in Tanzania, lacag aa yaalo.

East Africa is also fortunate to trade with Indian subcontinent and Southeast / East Asia. It has been theorised that a trade network connecting these regions could dominate the worlds economy.

 

[El Nino]

Personally, I would make south Somalia the food basket of Somalia which it is and should be. Main employment in this area in the present day and coming age should be agriculture, especially farming. I would build desalination plants to deliver water if needed. Every inch of Somalias arable land should be farmed, even if its not commerciably viable. Food security should be priority. I would extend this area to Galbeed if Somalias manages to get it back.

Second farming area should be the Northwest region.


We should place future heavy industries in our more emptier regions such as GM and Puntland. The military should be also be based here. Plenty of space. Together with fishing sector, these two regions could stand on their own in the future.

This is what Somalia can do in the short term.