The ultimate question; what will happen when Somalia’s central gov gets enough clout to look beyond the capital? How will they deal with Somaliland? I have a few scenarios of how the stalemate will end.
1. (2nd most likely) Somalia central gov will allow Somaliland to secede on the condition of referendum including a separate one for the border regions. I say this is not too likely as it will propel regions of Somalia to disrespect Somalia central gov.
2. (Least likely) Somalia central gov under the current clan politics will concede huge power to Somaliland politicians and Isaaq clan, allowing them either permanent presidentship or a over representation in parliament. This won’t bode well with most other clans and may result in new fighting.
3. (Most likely) Somaliland has already bitten into the forbidden fruit that is independence for over 20+ years now. The politicians of Somaliland along with their constituents won’t give up power to be ruled by people 1k km away. This will thus result in a showdown that will escalate into total war. Both states will gather at the border, until there’s no other choice, but to march forward.
This last scenario can end in a few ways depending on how recovered Somalia is and which backing each state gets. In my view both Kenya and Ethiopia will most likely back Somaliland, while Somalia will get token support from the international community.
I’ll leave it up to you to come up with a conclusion. When commenting state good reason as to why you think a certain scenario would occur.
1. (2nd most likely) Somalia central gov will allow Somaliland to secede on the condition of referendum including a separate one for the border regions. I say this is not too likely as it will propel regions of Somalia to disrespect Somalia central gov.
2. (Least likely) Somalia central gov under the current clan politics will concede huge power to Somaliland politicians and Isaaq clan, allowing them either permanent presidentship or a over representation in parliament. This won’t bode well with most other clans and may result in new fighting.
3. (Most likely) Somaliland has already bitten into the forbidden fruit that is independence for over 20+ years now. The politicians of Somaliland along with their constituents won’t give up power to be ruled by people 1k km away. This will thus result in a showdown that will escalate into total war. Both states will gather at the border, until there’s no other choice, but to march forward.
This last scenario can end in a few ways depending on how recovered Somalia is and which backing each state gets. In my view both Kenya and Ethiopia will most likely back Somaliland, while Somalia will get token support from the international community.
I’ll leave it up to you to come up with a conclusion. When commenting state good reason as to why you think a certain scenario would occur.
