Objective analysis of the current situation in Syria
Did Netanyahu give the green light to the Syrian opposition to carry out their attack?
The opposition’s operation in Aleppo is not proof they are taking orders from Zionists. In fact, it indicates the opposite because they waited until a ceasefire. They carried out their operation after the ceasefire with Hezbollah, so they wouldn’t be labeled as “supporting Zionists.”
A decision for an attack with such sophistication cannot be made in a single day. It was likely planned for months.
Where does everyone stand?
1. The UAE and Saudi Arabia support Assad, but not to the extent that he becomes too strong, remains Iran’s ally, and continues to allow arming Hezbollah route, nor so weak that the rebels win and establish a democracy with rights. something they consider their nightmare.
This is why, at the onset of the Syrian revolution, they did everything in their power to turn it into an armed conflict, supported multiple factions, and had their clerics issue jihad fatwas. They later pulled out, creating divisions to weaken the Syrian opposition.
2. Russia guaranteed Netanyahu that its presence in Syria would ensure no strikes against Israel from Syrian territory.
3. The US and the liberal establishment supported the Kurds and secular movements, as their nightmare is the rebels succeeding and establishing an Islamic state.
4. Israel does not want Assad to fall; he is the perfect head of state for Syria, too weak to retaliate and too strong to overthrow. If Israel wanted to assassinate him, it would have targeted his palaces.
Israeli airstrikes in Syria have mainly focused on Iranian associates or militias allegedly linked to Iran, with occasional losses among Assad’s army officers. These airstrikes primarily serve to pressure Assad to stop facilitating Hezbollah’s arms route.
5. Turkey’s biggest fear is Kurdish separatists.
It wants strong Syrian borders to contain them, whether under Assad or the rebels.
Turkey has even pressured rebels to refrain from attacking Assad regime-controlled territories.
This Turkish green light came only after Assad refused to meet Erdogan for a resolution to the Syrian crisis under UAE pressure.
What Turkey will gain from this is the ability to send over a million Syrian refugees back to their homes if the rebels capture cities from the Assad regime.
6. Iran wants a strong Assad regime to ensure the continuation of Hezbollah’s arms route.
7. The Palestinian factions: There has been no official statement regarding the recent Aleppo operation from Hamas or Islamic Jihad, except for the PFLP, which condemned it and labeled the rebels as terrorists.
This was expected, as the PFLP and Ba’ath Party share common principles, both pan-Arabist and socialist (on paper).
It’s a complex situation, and reducing it merely to tribalism is foolish.
Note: I don’t support any side in Syria.
Did Netanyahu give the green light to the Syrian opposition to carry out their attack?
The opposition’s operation in Aleppo is not proof they are taking orders from Zionists. In fact, it indicates the opposite because they waited until a ceasefire. They carried out their operation after the ceasefire with Hezbollah, so they wouldn’t be labeled as “supporting Zionists.”
A decision for an attack with such sophistication cannot be made in a single day. It was likely planned for months.
Where does everyone stand?
1. The UAE and Saudi Arabia support Assad, but not to the extent that he becomes too strong, remains Iran’s ally, and continues to allow arming Hezbollah route, nor so weak that the rebels win and establish a democracy with rights. something they consider their nightmare.
This is why, at the onset of the Syrian revolution, they did everything in their power to turn it into an armed conflict, supported multiple factions, and had their clerics issue jihad fatwas. They later pulled out, creating divisions to weaken the Syrian opposition.
2. Russia guaranteed Netanyahu that its presence in Syria would ensure no strikes against Israel from Syrian territory.
3. The US and the liberal establishment supported the Kurds and secular movements, as their nightmare is the rebels succeeding and establishing an Islamic state.
4. Israel does not want Assad to fall; he is the perfect head of state for Syria, too weak to retaliate and too strong to overthrow. If Israel wanted to assassinate him, it would have targeted his palaces.
Israeli airstrikes in Syria have mainly focused on Iranian associates or militias allegedly linked to Iran, with occasional losses among Assad’s army officers. These airstrikes primarily serve to pressure Assad to stop facilitating Hezbollah’s arms route.
5. Turkey’s biggest fear is Kurdish separatists.
It wants strong Syrian borders to contain them, whether under Assad or the rebels.
Turkey has even pressured rebels to refrain from attacking Assad regime-controlled territories.
This Turkish green light came only after Assad refused to meet Erdogan for a resolution to the Syrian crisis under UAE pressure.
What Turkey will gain from this is the ability to send over a million Syrian refugees back to their homes if the rebels capture cities from the Assad regime.
6. Iran wants a strong Assad regime to ensure the continuation of Hezbollah’s arms route.
7. The Palestinian factions: There has been no official statement regarding the recent Aleppo operation from Hamas or Islamic Jihad, except for the PFLP, which condemned it and labeled the rebels as terrorists.
This was expected, as the PFLP and Ba’ath Party share common principles, both pan-Arabist and socialist (on paper).
It’s a complex situation, and reducing it merely to tribalism is foolish.
Note: I don’t support any side in Syria.