The biggest threat to Somalia's future

[Thegoodshepherd]

This paper is shocking to say the least, but it is basically accurate in how it lays out the future.

http://dabamirror.sci-hub.io/fb740d32d885a1eadf775813d5e005fa/michalscheck2016.pdf

A deeper dive into one of the largest projects coming online in the Upper Juba (Genale in Ethiopia) later this year:

https://www.ice.org.uk/eventarchive/genale-dawa-3-hydroelectric-project

literally no one is talking about this issue in Somalia. I have not read a single complaint by a Somali gov official. Ethiopia will control our water supply to the cubic meter, and there is no country in between us mediating like Sudan does for Egypt. We are alone in the room with a wolf.

 

[Steamdevolopment]

This paper is shocking to say the least, but it is basically accurate in how it lays out the future.

http://dabamirror.sci-hub.io/fb740d32d885a1eadf775813d5e005fa/michalscheck2016.pdf

A deeper dive into one of the largest projects coming online in the Upper Juba (Genale in Ethiopia) later this year:

https://www.ice.org.uk/eventarchive/genale-dawa-3-hydroelectric-project

literally no one is talking about this issue in Somalia. I have not read a single complaint by a Somali gov official. Ethiopia will control our water supply to the cubic meter, and there is no country in between us mediating like Sudan does for Egypt. We are alone in the room with a wolf.

LOL, we have a Ehitiopian fan bombing the capital on daily basis and we have no functional government to speak of but despotic familiar configuration ruling with no checks or balances.

This threat doesn't register because long-term is difficult when immediate catastrophes remain unanswered.

This is a long-term threat but at this rate I'm not sure Somalia will continue as a country, and perhaps salinaiton technology can save the future balkanized regions from this.

 

[Menelik III]

The dam is good for both Ethiopia and Somalia. The dam will create a surplus in the total amount of usable water. It will prevent overflooding which occurs every year and kills thousands. Less water evaporation will occur. I don't see any negative for Somalia, besides the possibility of Ethiopia blocking water flow. Either way the water originates in the Ethiopian mountains meaning it is up to the people of Ethiopia to use it without hurting neighbors.

 

[Ras]

Most of the Shabelle river evaporates in Ethiopia after going through the old damns built there.

They even intervened in the past when we tried to build damns on our side trying to hold on to the little we have (Baardhere Dam World Bank loan - Ethiopia put a stop to that).

The next Ethiopia- Somalia war won't be about land or revenge... but probably about water resources unless we come up with a way to cheaply desalinate water.

 

[Menelik III]

Most of the Shabelle river evaporates in Ethiopia after going through the old damns built there.

They even intervened in the past when we tried to build damns on our side trying to hold on to the little we have (Baardhere Dam World Bank loan - Ethiopia put a stop to that).

The next Ethiopia- Somalia war won't be about land or pride... but probably about water resources unless we come up with a way to cheaply desalinate water.

Why would ethiopia stop Somalia from building a dam? What negative impacts would it have on Ethiopia? Show me proof.

 

[Ras]

Why would ethiopia stop Somalia from building a dam? What negative impacts would it have on Ethiopia? Show me proof.

The Baardhere Dam and Water Infrastructure Project in Somalia—Ethiopia’s objection and the World Bank response

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02626667.2011.574139?needAccess=true




Ethiopia has never entertained the though of friendly relations with an independent Somali nation.

It's either we turn into Ethiopian slaves or we get oppressed until eternity regardless of what Ethiopian faction is in charge.



After we get our land back or secure our water resources we don't need them but they'll always need us.

Not only for access to the sea but the fact that we're an independent people that control our own country irks the imperialistic Ethiopians.

They don't want that idea to spread to their 80 subordinate tribes.

 

[Menelik III]

The Baardhere Dam and Water Infrastructure Project in Somalia—Ethiopia’s objection and the World Bank response

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02626667.2011.574139?needAccess=true




Ethiopia has never entertained the though of friendly relations with an independent Somali nation.

It's either we turn into Ethiopian slaves or we get oppressed until eternity regardless of what Ethiopian faction is in charge.



After we get our land back or secure our water resources we don't need them but they'll always need us.

Not only for access to the sea but the fact that we're an independent people that control our own country irks the imperialistic Ethiopians.

They don't want that idea to spread to their 80 subordinate tribes.

The Bank concluded that Ethiopia’s response to the notification amounted to an objection to the pro- posed Project. As a result of Ethiopia’s objection,
the Bank proposed that Somalia should hold nego- tiations with Ethiopia over the sharing of the Juba River. The Somali Government was not amenable to the idea of negotiations with Ethiopia, or the use of good offices of a third party to facilitate a resolu- tion of the issues raised by Ethiopia. Instead, Somalia proposed that the Bank should make its own assess- ment of Ethiopia’s objection and claims. Under those circumstances the question arose whether—for the first time—the Bank should seek an opinion of inde- pendent experts pursuant to paragraphs 11(e) and 13 of OMS 2.32 of 1985, and its Annex A, “Technical Advice of Independent Experts”.

This was in the 80s right after the war between Ethiopia and Somalia. What makes you think the then government would be in favor of Somalia controlling the water that originates in Ethiopia?
What the Ethiopian side was saying was that they want to build a dam first before Somalia builds there's to ensure that maximum utilization of their water is used before going to Somalia. This was Cold War politics that probably would not happen if they weren't at odds. Plus Somalia did not want to negotiate. Who's fault is that?

We do not want your frickin land, we do not want you to be under Ethiopia. Why do you have this fantasy. Ethiopia and Somalia could have been great partners but your ill thought out dreams went to your heads which ruined your country...

 

[Ras]

The Bank concluded that Ethiopia’s response to the notification amounted to an objection to the pro- posed Project. As a result of Ethiopia’s objection,
the Bank proposed that Somalia should hold nego- tiations with Ethiopia over the sharing of the Juba River. The Somali Government was not amenable to the idea of negotiations with Ethiopia, or the use of good offices of a third party to facilitate a resolu- tion of the issues raised by Ethiopia. Instead, Somalia proposed that the Bank should make its own assess- ment of Ethiopia’s objection and claims. Under those circumstances the question arose whether—for the first time—the Bank should seek an opinion of inde- pendent experts pursuant to paragraphs 11(e) and 13 of OMS 2.32 of 1985, and its Annex A, “Technical Advice of Independent Experts”.

This was in the 80s right after the war between Ethiopia and Somalia. What makes you think the then government would be in favor of Somalia controlling the water that originates in Ethiopia?
What the Ethiopian side was saying was that they want to build a dam first before Somalia builds there's to ensure that maximum utilization of their water is used before going to Somalia. This was Cold War politics that probably would not happen if they weren't at odds. Plus Somalia did not want to negotiate. Who's fault is that?

We do not want your frickin land, we do not want you to be under Ethiopia. Why do you have this fantasy. Ethiopia and Somalia could have been great partners but your ill thought out dreams went to your heads which ruined your country...

The Ethiopian response was just lawyer talk with the hopes of stalling the project even further.

Loan applications had a deadline.

Ethiopia might not care for our land but they see our freedom as a threat.

 

[Menelik III]

The Ethiopian response was just lawyer talk with the hopes of stalling the project even further.

Loan applications had a deadline.

Ethiopia might not care for our land but they see our freedom as a threat.

You can put the blame on us but at the end of the day you know who's fault it is. Your country didn't respect sovereignty and you got burned. Why should Ethiopia help a country who claims a portion of Ethiopia under their constitution? Look at dj, or Somaliland, that's what the relationship between us would have looked like if you gave up claiming land of others.

 

[Ras]

You can put the blame on us but at the end of the day you know who's fault it is. Your country didn't respect sovereignty and you got burned. Why should Ethiopia help a country who claims a portion of Ethiopia under their constitution? Look at dj, or Somaliland, that's what the relationship between us would have looked like if you gave up claiming land of others.

Claiming someone else's land.

The Somali region in Ethiopia was historically inhabited by the Somali people.

If a disease takes over half of your body who wouldn't fight it off?

Our only mistake was that we didn't take into account the risk of half of the Warsaw pact stabbing us in the back.

 

[Menelik III]

Claiming someone else's land.

The Somali region in Ethiopia was historically inhabited by the Somali people.

If a disease takes over half of your body who wouldn't fight it off?

Our only mistake was that we didn't take into account the risk of half of the Warsaw pact stabbing us in the back.

I guess we will be eternal enemies as long as you have that mindset.

 

[Ras]

I guess we will be eternal enemies as long as you have that mindset.

What mindset would you like us to have?


I personally haven't got anything against Ethiopians but asking for sovereignty seems to be too much to ask for.

 

[Menelik III]

What mindset would you like us to have?


I personally haven't got anything against Ethiopians but asking for sovereignty seems to be too much to ask for.

Just looking at that pic I can't even tell who is who (besides hailemariam). I hope Somalia gains peace but you can't expect Ethiopia and Kenya to support a peaceful Somalia as long as you have greater Somalia on your mind. This is the truth.

 

[Ras]

Just looking at that pic I can't even tell who is who (besides hailemariam). I hope Somalia gains peace but you can't expect Ethiopia and Kenya to support a peaceful Somalia as long as you have greater Somalia on your mind. This is the truth.

Even if we all decided to give up on Greater Somalia and signed a border agreement... would you really believe us?


Ethiopia can't take the risk of leaving us alone to develop in case the worst case scenario happens.

They know that if they lose the Somali region then more tribes will fight for secession .

So regardless of what we do or sign... you'll always will plan for the demise of Somalia anyways.

 

[Menelik III]

Even if we all decided to give up on Greater Somalia and signed a border agreement... would you really believe us?


Ethiopia can't take the risk of leaving us alone to develop in case the worst case scenario happens.

They know that if they lose the Somali region then more tribes will fight for secession .

So regardless of what we do or sign... you'll always will plan for the demise of Somalia anyways.

I think Ethiopia would gladly work on development with Somalia if we signed a border agreement and officially ended all hostilities. I think once both countries becomes so developed and interlinked through commerce and infrastructure there will not be a need for borders. Ethiopia and Somalia are linked through geography but also through history and we can never escape each other, we might as well work together other than ruin our great region.

 

[XamarCade]

I give it 2yrs before we see the Balkanization of Ethiopia, then we move in and control the water supply, we're gonna use the Oromo this time to do our bids, the same TPLF we created in Mogadishu has failed us unfortunately, the only good thing they did was feed the amxaaras out in the land fill and bury them their. This unfortunate situation can be utilized in our favor, I'm not too worried as Somalia is finally getting it's house in order, 25+ yrs of civil war and terrorism, piracy has been a history for our future and current generations to learn from

 

[Canuck]

The dam is good for both Ethiopia and Somalia. The dam will create a surplus in the total amount of usable water. It will prevent overflooding which occurs every year and kills thousands. Less water evaporation will occur. I don't see any negative for Somalia, besides the possibility of Ethiopia blocking water flow. Either way the water originates in the Ethiopian mountains meaning it is up to the people of Ethiopia to use it without hurting neighbors.

Listen Isaaq boy, SL wouldn't get recognized. Now out to hargeisa

 

[Canuck]

That's why Ogaden region is important for us, to secure our water resources.

 

[ሕጊ።።]

I give it 2yrs before we see the Balkanization of Ethiopia

People said this during the 2005 protests and recently the 2015 protests

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[XamarCade]

People said this during the 2005 protests and recently the 2015 protests

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It's inevitable, but it's gonna benefit us, plus in 2005 in assuming there wasn t a year of state emergency and internet blockage, it's obvious the situation hasn't improved and only gotten worse