In an attempt to weaken the influence of Qatar and its Turkish ally over Addis, the Emirates crown prince MbZ has pledged substantial investment in Ethiopia.
The remarkable rapprochement of late between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia was cemented by the official visit to Addis Ababa from 15 to 16 June of the Emirates crown prince Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ). This budding strategic alliance is in part attributable to the overtures of the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed Ali towards his former enemies, the Eritrean president Issayas Afeworkiand his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. These allies of Riyadh and the UAE are home to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) military bases.
MbZ's trip to Addis Ababa was meticulously planned by the head of Egypt's General Intelligence Directorate, General Abbas Kamel, who travelled back and forth between Cairo, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Addis Ababa and coordinated his efforts with the assistant secretary-general of the Emirates supreme national security council, Ali bin Hamad al-Shamsi. On the Ethiopian side, the director of the National Intelligence and Security Service, Adem Mohamed Ahmed, visited Abu Dhabi from 10 to 12 June to prepare MbZ's trip.
And to further demonstrate his goodwill, Abiy Ahmed Ali travelled to Egypt on 10 June for a working visit with Sisi, who is asking for concessions over the waters of the Nile in return for Emirati investments worth $3 billion, one billion of which will be injected directly into the coffers of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) to alleviate the currency crisis. Egypt is demanding strict time limits on the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD, ION 1463). Abu Dhabi has already invested $1.5 billion in agriculture and infrastructure projects in Ethiopia, and UAE companies such as Julphar Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries and RAK Ceramics are already active in Ethiopia. The presence of the chairman of the Emirati property giant Emaar, Mohamed Ben Ali Al Abbar, in the UAE delegation to Addis Ababa suggests investment may also be forthcoming in tourism, the hotel sector and shopping centres.
Interesting information from this article
Looks like Egypt is much more interested in diplomacy and bribery to sway Ethiopia, rather than
coercion, which is a smart and realistic strategy as Egypt does not have the money/capacity to invade Ethiopia. If Egypt and Ethiopia, through Emirati petrodollars, manage to reach a long-term deal over the dam issue, it will mean that Egypt and its Gulf allies will pivot strongly toward Ethiopia and I'm not sure if those implications are good or bad for Somalia (it actually might be good as Ethiopia destabilizes Somalia because it fears the Egyptians and Gulf Arabs will use a strong Somalia to destabilize Ethiopia...In contrast, I don't think the Ethiopians have any similar fears over the Turkish presence in Somalia).
Also, UAE funds to Ethiopia are described as "loans" and "investments." Does that mean if Ethiopia defaults or investments fail, UAE will try to take over assets in Ethiopia like China took over that Sri Lankan port?
The remarkable rapprochement of late between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Ethiopia was cemented by the official visit to Addis Ababa from 15 to 16 June of the Emirates crown prince Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ). This budding strategic alliance is in part attributable to the overtures of the Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed Ali towards his former enemies, the Eritrean president Issayas Afeworkiand his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. These allies of Riyadh and the UAE are home to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) military bases.
MbZ's trip to Addis Ababa was meticulously planned by the head of Egypt's General Intelligence Directorate, General Abbas Kamel, who travelled back and forth between Cairo, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Addis Ababa and coordinated his efforts with the assistant secretary-general of the Emirates supreme national security council, Ali bin Hamad al-Shamsi. On the Ethiopian side, the director of the National Intelligence and Security Service, Adem Mohamed Ahmed, visited Abu Dhabi from 10 to 12 June to prepare MbZ's trip.
And to further demonstrate his goodwill, Abiy Ahmed Ali travelled to Egypt on 10 June for a working visit with Sisi, who is asking for concessions over the waters of the Nile in return for Emirati investments worth $3 billion, one billion of which will be injected directly into the coffers of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) to alleviate the currency crisis. Egypt is demanding strict time limits on the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD, ION 1463). Abu Dhabi has already invested $1.5 billion in agriculture and infrastructure projects in Ethiopia, and UAE companies such as Julphar Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries and RAK Ceramics are already active in Ethiopia. The presence of the chairman of the Emirati property giant Emaar, Mohamed Ben Ali Al Abbar, in the UAE delegation to Addis Ababa suggests investment may also be forthcoming in tourism, the hotel sector and shopping centres.
Interesting information from this article
Looks like Egypt is much more interested in diplomacy and bribery to sway Ethiopia, rather than
coercion, which is a smart and realistic strategy as Egypt does not have the money/capacity to invade Ethiopia. If Egypt and Ethiopia, through Emirati petrodollars, manage to reach a long-term deal over the dam issue, it will mean that Egypt and its Gulf allies will pivot strongly toward Ethiopia and I'm not sure if those implications are good or bad for Somalia (it actually might be good as Ethiopia destabilizes Somalia because it fears the Egyptians and Gulf Arabs will use a strong Somalia to destabilize Ethiopia...In contrast, I don't think the Ethiopians have any similar fears over the Turkish presence in Somalia).
Also, UAE funds to Ethiopia are described as "loans" and "investments." Does that mean if Ethiopia defaults or investments fail, UAE will try to take over assets in Ethiopia like China took over that Sri Lankan port?
