"The views expressed in this article are solely my own. I will engage with those who provide constructive comments. Lets keep the peace 
Tensions in the Horn of Africa are escalating. As usual, the world seems to pay little attention to the geopolitical shifts in East Africa—a region where miscalculations are common and one wrong move could throw the entire region into chaos. However, could Egypt prevent the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland from coming to fruition without firing a single shot? This piece will explore the background leading to the MOU and analyze Egypt’s recent power moves in the Horn of Africa, as it seeks to undermine the agreement.
Background: The Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU
The signing of the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland was a surprise in diplomatic circles. In my view, both leaders—Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland’s leadership—signed this agreement for internal political gains.
Abiy Ahmed, under immense pressure domestically, faces an economy in decline and the aftermath of civil wars. The Ethiopian government needed a significant accomplishment to present to its people to quell dissatisfaction. Frustrated with its former ally in the north and realizing that relying on Kenya’s ports was not feasible, Ethiopia saw Somaliland as a solution. Discontent with the terms of its current port agreement with Djibouti, Ethiopia viewed Somaliland’s Berbera Port as a strategic win that could unify the nation. Ethiopian diplomats likely assumed that the international community would remain indifferent, given the UAE’s quiet presence in Berbera and Somalia’s ongoing instability. "Who would care?" they might have thought.
On the other side, Somaliland’s government, increasingly viewed as corrupt and ineffective, was struggling to gain international recognition. By signing the MOU with Ethiopia, they hoped to bolster their legitimacy and counter growing domestic dissatisfaction.
However, as is often the case with short-term diplomatic wins, Abiy failed to consider the larger geopolitical consequences. Somalia fiercely opposed the agreement and swiftly signed military cooperation pacts with Turkey and Egypt. Eritrea, although quiet on the diplomatic front, began increasing cooperation with Somali and Egyptian officials. Djibouti, feeling sidelined and concerned about potential revenue losses due to Ethiopia’s actions, also rejected the MOU, despite its relatively cordial relations with Somaliland. Overnight, Abiy found himself diplomatically isolated, with many of his neighbors now seeing cooperation with Egypt as a strategic necessity.
Egypt’s Strategic Moves
Egypt, long seeking an opportunity to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and to counter Ethiopia’s growing ambitions, quickly seized this moment. Cairo warmly welcomed Somali officials, emphasizing the historical bonds between Arab League countries and using religious ties to advance its agenda. Egypt promised to assist Somalia in preventing the MOU from becoming a reality, and soon after, a deal was struck: 10,000 Egyptian soldiers, fully equipped, were to be deployed to Somalia, with the possibility of more to follow. Egypt made no pretense about its intentions—this was not about peacekeeping or counterterrorism. It was clear: Egypt was there to defend Somalia, and by extension, its own interests.
Meanwhile, Egyptian officials have accelerated their cooperation with Eritrea, with both nations aligning their policies on Sudan. High-level consultations between Cairo and Asmara have become more frequent, as both countries recognize the potential to further isolate Ethiopia. Djibouti, with its strong ties to the West, also appears to be quietly aligning itself with Egypt. Despite its influence in the region, Djibouti has not called on its Western allies to counter Egypt’s increasing presence. Instead, it has cooperated in talks about a new multinational mission in Somalia—one that notably excludes Ethiopia but prominently includes Egypt.
Egypt’s Potential Without Firing a Shot: Securing the Red Sea
If Egypt plays its cards right, it could leverage the international community to support an Egyptian-led naval presence in the Red Sea. Egypt can frame this mission as one of global significance, emphasizing the need for stability in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. While ensuring the safety of international trade, Egypt would also secure its own strategic interests by preventing Ethiopia from gaining a foothold in the Red Sea.
It is conceivable that this mission could be led by Egypt under the auspices of the Saudi-established Red Sea Council, which includes Egypt, Jordan, Eritrea, Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia. Notably absent from this forum is the UAE, which complicates Ethiopia’s plans even further.
Egypt could also secure backing from the African Union, positioning this as an “African solution to African problems.” With Western and Arab financial support, Egypt could effectively position itself as the stabilizing force in the Red Sea, bolstering its standing in the international diplomatic community.
Such a move would not only enhance Egypt’s influence but would also strengthen long-term partnerships with Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and possibly even Saudi Arabia. The stage would be set for Egypt to assert its dominance in the region without a single shot being fired.
Ethiopia and Somalia: Caught in a Bind
Both Ethiopia and Somalia now find themselves in a precarious position. Ethiopia cannot afford to back down from the MOU without securing a Red Sea outlet, as the internal political backlash would be severe. Meanwhile, Somali elites and the general population will fiercely oppose any action that could permanently divide the country. Egypt, on the other hand, is facing a once-in-a-century opportunity to establish a permanent presence along Ethiopia’s borders.
The temperature is rising in the Horn of Africa, but will it lead to war? Only time will tell."
source
Tensions in the Horn of Africa are escalating. As usual, the world seems to pay little attention to the geopolitical shifts in East Africa—a region where miscalculations are common and one wrong move could throw the entire region into chaos. However, could Egypt prevent the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland from coming to fruition without firing a single shot? This piece will explore the background leading to the MOU and analyze Egypt’s recent power moves in the Horn of Africa, as it seeks to undermine the agreement.
Background: The Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU
The signing of the MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland was a surprise in diplomatic circles. In my view, both leaders—Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland’s leadership—signed this agreement for internal political gains.
Abiy Ahmed, under immense pressure domestically, faces an economy in decline and the aftermath of civil wars. The Ethiopian government needed a significant accomplishment to present to its people to quell dissatisfaction. Frustrated with its former ally in the north and realizing that relying on Kenya’s ports was not feasible, Ethiopia saw Somaliland as a solution. Discontent with the terms of its current port agreement with Djibouti, Ethiopia viewed Somaliland’s Berbera Port as a strategic win that could unify the nation. Ethiopian diplomats likely assumed that the international community would remain indifferent, given the UAE’s quiet presence in Berbera and Somalia’s ongoing instability. "Who would care?" they might have thought.
On the other side, Somaliland’s government, increasingly viewed as corrupt and ineffective, was struggling to gain international recognition. By signing the MOU with Ethiopia, they hoped to bolster their legitimacy and counter growing domestic dissatisfaction.
However, as is often the case with short-term diplomatic wins, Abiy failed to consider the larger geopolitical consequences. Somalia fiercely opposed the agreement and swiftly signed military cooperation pacts with Turkey and Egypt. Eritrea, although quiet on the diplomatic front, began increasing cooperation with Somali and Egyptian officials. Djibouti, feeling sidelined and concerned about potential revenue losses due to Ethiopia’s actions, also rejected the MOU, despite its relatively cordial relations with Somaliland. Overnight, Abiy found himself diplomatically isolated, with many of his neighbors now seeing cooperation with Egypt as a strategic necessity.
Egypt’s Strategic Moves
Egypt, long seeking an opportunity to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and to counter Ethiopia’s growing ambitions, quickly seized this moment. Cairo warmly welcomed Somali officials, emphasizing the historical bonds between Arab League countries and using religious ties to advance its agenda. Egypt promised to assist Somalia in preventing the MOU from becoming a reality, and soon after, a deal was struck: 10,000 Egyptian soldiers, fully equipped, were to be deployed to Somalia, with the possibility of more to follow. Egypt made no pretense about its intentions—this was not about peacekeeping or counterterrorism. It was clear: Egypt was there to defend Somalia, and by extension, its own interests.
Meanwhile, Egyptian officials have accelerated their cooperation with Eritrea, with both nations aligning their policies on Sudan. High-level consultations between Cairo and Asmara have become more frequent, as both countries recognize the potential to further isolate Ethiopia. Djibouti, with its strong ties to the West, also appears to be quietly aligning itself with Egypt. Despite its influence in the region, Djibouti has not called on its Western allies to counter Egypt’s increasing presence. Instead, it has cooperated in talks about a new multinational mission in Somalia—one that notably excludes Ethiopia but prominently includes Egypt.
Egypt’s Potential Without Firing a Shot: Securing the Red Sea
If Egypt plays its cards right, it could leverage the international community to support an Egyptian-led naval presence in the Red Sea. Egypt can frame this mission as one of global significance, emphasizing the need for stability in one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. While ensuring the safety of international trade, Egypt would also secure its own strategic interests by preventing Ethiopia from gaining a foothold in the Red Sea.
It is conceivable that this mission could be led by Egypt under the auspices of the Saudi-established Red Sea Council, which includes Egypt, Jordan, Eritrea, Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia. Notably absent from this forum is the UAE, which complicates Ethiopia’s plans even further.
Egypt could also secure backing from the African Union, positioning this as an “African solution to African problems.” With Western and Arab financial support, Egypt could effectively position itself as the stabilizing force in the Red Sea, bolstering its standing in the international diplomatic community.
Such a move would not only enhance Egypt’s influence but would also strengthen long-term partnerships with Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and possibly even Saudi Arabia. The stage would be set for Egypt to assert its dominance in the region without a single shot being fired.
Ethiopia and Somalia: Caught in a Bind
Both Ethiopia and Somalia now find themselves in a precarious position. Ethiopia cannot afford to back down from the MOU without securing a Red Sea outlet, as the internal political backlash would be severe. Meanwhile, Somali elites and the general population will fiercely oppose any action that could permanently divide the country. Egypt, on the other hand, is facing a once-in-a-century opportunity to establish a permanent presence along Ethiopia’s borders.
The temperature is rising in the Horn of Africa, but will it lead to war? Only time will tell."
source
