Tropical cyclone about to hit Puntland and Somaliland

[LittleNileRiver]

Severe Weather Advisory for Gulf of Aden (Yemen & Somalia) Probable Tropical Cyclone Development, 16 May 2018

REPORT from Government of the United Kingdom

Published on 16 May 2018

Issued on Wednesday, 16th May 2018 at 0130 local time.

Headline

A Tropical Cyclone is expected to develop at the eastern end of the Gulf of Aden in the next 24 hours (See Figure 1). This is forecast to track westwards along the Gulf and bring exceptionally high rainfall totals to a usually very arid region.

Note – the uncertainty in the track of this cyclone means that we remain unsure whether the heaviest rain (and most severe impacts) will fall in either Southern Yemen, Northern Somalia, and there is a low risk that it may impact upon Djibouti over the coming weekend.

Impacts

Severe flash flooding and river flooding across the region will lead to a loss of human life, livestock, and the destruction of crops, property and infrastructure.

Very heavy rainfall occurring across Western Yemen (linked to, although not directly from the cyclone) is likely to promote cholera infection rates in the weeks ahead.

https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/...somalia-probable-tropical-cyclone-development

FULL REPORT ON PDF

 

[Wei]

The wrath of Allah is about to hit these Munafiqs who chose to fight as we are near the blessed month of Ramadan. I pray all the warmongers get wiped out and the peaceful among the two are spared.

 

[LittleNileRiver]

Bosaso is in big trouble.

Satellite imagery on Google Earth, shows settlements and agriculture on dried up river beds, putting both people and livestock at a high risk of being caught out by flash flooding.

Figure 4: The city of Bosaso in Northern Somalia is home to an estimated 165,000 people. Note the number of dried up river beds surrounding the city.

Historical Perspective: Similar events in recent years in both Yemen (2008 Cyclone) and Somalia (2013 Cyclone) have led to hundreds of human fatalities, the large scale loss of crops, livestock and destruction of property and infrastructure. The current forecast event appears to be as severe as the 2013 Somali Cyclone, but slightly below the severity of the 2008 Yemen Cyclone. However, much will depend upon the track of the cyclone over the coming days.

Likely Impacts: It must be stressed that heavy rainfall will cause the most impact from this cyclone, with impacts likely in Southern Yemen and across much of Northern Somalia. In an area that usually sees little, and often no rainfall, dried up river beds are settled by people and extensively used for agriculture (crops and livestock). Modest amounts of precipitation would bring flash flooding to these areas, with people, animals and crops in these flooded zones likely to be washed away. With large amounts of rainfall likely over the coming days, there is the potential for very serious impacts on the region.

 

[Wei]

I hope it hits Tukaraq, were both sides are stationed

 

[Lancer]

God punishes transgressors

 

[LittleNileRiver]

I know someone in Bosaso that said its raining atm

 

[GBTarmy]

Ilaahay dadkeena ha u gargaro

 

[World]

We either get too much rainfall or too little

 

[Deactivated]

I’m following this on Windy.com

It’s going towards Yemen.

 

[LittleNileRiver]

Djibouti could be hit by this cyclone too

 

[LittleNileRiver]

 

[LittleNileRiver]

World Meteorological Organization

 

[LittleNileRiver]

 

[LittleNileRiver]

 

[LittleNileRiver]

Rare Gulf of Aden Tropical Cyclone Sagar Could Bring Life-Threatening Flooding to Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti
By Bob Henson and Jonathan Erdman
May 17 2018 10:50 AM EDT
weather.com

Current Information, Infrared Satellite


The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors in this infrared satellite image. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone. (Storm status: JTWC)


Story Highlights
A tropical cyclone, Sagar, has formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia.

Sagar's main threat is dangerous flash flooding in the deserts of southern Yemen, northern Somalia and Djibouti.

Tropical cyclones moving from the Arabian Sea into the Gulf of Aden aren't rare.

Cyclone Sagar developed late Wednesday in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia, and could become one of the first tropical storms on record to cross the entire Gulf of Aden—perhaps affecting even the tiny nation of Djibouti, where tropical cyclones are virtually unknown.

Tropical Depression 1A was named Cyclonic Storm Sagar by the Indian Meteorological Department, the agency with primary responsibility for tropical cyclone forecasting in the North Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea.

As of late Thursday afternoon, local time (Yemen is 7 hours ahead of U.S. EDT), Sagar is a small, compact tropical cyclone with winds estimated at tropical storm force, according to both the Indian Meteorological Department and the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Showers and thunderstorms pinwheeling around Sagar’s compact core were moving onto the Yemeni coast Thursday, while a cluster of intense thunderstorms well southeast of Sagar was affecting northeast Somalia (see image above).

Sagar has been gaining some strength, according to satellite intensity estimates, taking advantage of a favorable environment of low wind shear and water temperatures at least 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit).

The main threat from Sagar will be heavy rainfall, with parts of the Yemeni coast, Somalia and Djibouti potentially picking up 2 to 5 inches of rain.

These are substantial totals in desert environments that don’t typically get much moisture, and where the rugged landscape is prone to flash flooding. For instance, the average yearly rainfall in Djibouti City is only around 6.4 inches (163.5 millimeters)

Rainfall Forecast: Tropical Cyclone Sagar

In a special advisory issued Wednesday and posted by reliefweb.org, the UK Met Office warns that “severe flash flooding and river flooding across the region will lead to a loss of human life, livestock, and the destruction of crops, property and infrastructure.” The Met Office added: “Very heavy rainfall occurring across Western Yemen (linked to, although not directly from the cyclone) is likely to promote cholera infection rates in the weeks ahead.”

A Rare Track?
If Cyclone Sagar's core can avoid tracking too close or over land, it may make a full trip across the western Gulf of Aden by Saturday, possibly moving ashore in either northwest Somalia or Djibouti, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

This full Gulf of Aden track would be exceedingly rare.

Since satellite surveillance of tropical cyclones began in 1966, only two tropical cyclones have moved into the western Gulf of Aden.

Cyclone Megh, the second of back-to-back tropical cyclones that hammered Socotra Island, east of Somalia, made landfall along the Yemeni coast in November 2015.

Tropical Storm 1A traversed almost the entire Gulf of Aden before landfalling in northwest Somalia on May 28, 1984.

Only two tropical cyclones have tracked into the western Gulf of Aden in historical record dating to 1966. (NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)


Tropical cyclones are most common in the Arabian Sea in spring and autumn, during the transition periods between the strong southwest flow of the summer monsoon and the strong northeast flow that predominates in winter.

On average, the Arabian Peninsula is affected by a tropical cyclone every year or two.

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...one-sagar-gulf-of-aden-yemen-somalia-djibouti

 

[Karim]

May the almighty God protect our people against all evil things.