Unravelling the enigma that is Somalia.

[Canuck]

 

[John Michael]

Matt Bryden.

 

[Canuck]

Matt Bryden.

Yes

 

[TheAnswer]

This discussion basically confirms what we've all known: Somalia will remain a dysfunctional failed state for some time.
The federalization of Somalia has contributed to the dysfunction by making clan tension and political gridlock a permanent feature of Somali politics.
After watching that video, I can't say there's even a glimmer of hope for the country. Everything is going badly. Somalis will just have to get used to this present day situation, it's unlikely to change for the next few years at least.

 

[Canuck]

This discussion basically confirms what we've all known: Somalia will remain a dysfunctional failed state for some time.
The federalization of Somalia has contributed to the dysfunction by making clan tension and political gridlock a permanent feature of Somali politics.
After watching that video, I can't say there's even a glimmer of hope for the country. Everything is going badly. Somalis will just have to get used to this present day situation, it's unlikely to change for the next few years at least.

Any solution or suggestion? Should we try recognization and truth between Somalis? what I see the whole corrupted government is in the hand of southern people. They stand up to this government and clean their home from al kabab. Southern failed in running the country let us try someone from north like Isaaq or MJ or farmajo.

 

[TheAnswer]

Any solution or suggestion? Should we try recognization and truth between Somalis? what I see the whole corrupted government is in the hand of southern people. They stand up to this government and clean their home from al kabab. Southern failed in running the country let us try someone from north like Isaaq or MJ or farmajo.

I don't think there's any simple solution or suggestion that can solve this extremely complicated mess. There's too many entrenched interests that make leaving the status quo an almost impossible task. I don't think anything short of a major a major exogenous shock can significantly change the state of Somali politics. We need something like the Black Death. The Black Death did wonders for Europe. It lessened the power of the corrupt Catholic Church and killed off so many problematic nobles that kings were able to consolidate power and form strong nation-states. Let us hope that nature sends something similar our way. Hopefully the bubonic plague will break out in Mogadishu.

 

[Canuck]

I don't think there's any simple solution or suggestion that can solve this extremely complicated mess. There's too many entrenched interests that make leaving the status quo an almost impossible task. I don't think anything short of a major a major exogenous shock can significantly change the state of Somali politics. We need something like the Black Death. The Black Death did wonders for Europe. It lessened the power of the corrupt Catholic Church and killed off so many problematic nobles that kings were able to consolidate power and form strong nation-states. Let us hope that nature sends something similar our way. Hopefully the bubonic plague will break out in Mogadishu.

Black Death in this case could cutting of the water from juba and Shabelle( life of 6 millions depends on them) and that is very horrible thing. Or key is hand of Qatar government who paid the money for HMS to be president (bribing the parliament ) what if Egypt /Saudi /UAE / kwauit team paid more and put better man as president you know that last countries worked as one team and shares the same interest of securing bab el mandab.

 

[Cognitivedissonance]

The only remedy for Somalia is shariah we can't expect the west to help us since they were the ones who divided & conquered Somalia.

 

[Canuck]

The only remedy for Somalia is shariah we can't expect the west to help us since they were the ones who divided & conquered Somalia.

But we tried the Islamist rule during the al shabab towns. It was disaster from stoning and killing teenagers girls, cutting hand, killing innocents for watching soccer games and finally the famine. Plz do not go there enough from what we see in Syria and Iraq. Even in Saudi and Iran we know how the people run from them.

 

[Cognitivedissonance]

But we tried the Islamist rule during the al shabab towns. It was disaster from stoning and killing teenagers girls, cutting hand, killing innocents for watching soccer games and finally the famine. Plz do not go there enough from what we see in Syria and Iraq. Even in Saudi and Iran we know how the people run from them.

You're hilarious, so you think terrorism is synonymous with shariah law? Little knowledge is dangerous, they are far from implementing shariah infact they go against it by killing Muslims, if you really knew Islam then you wouldn't be speaking like this.

 

[Canuck]

You're hilarious, so you think terrorism is synonymous with shariah law? Little knowledge is dangerous, they are far from implementing shariah infact they go against it by killing Muslims, if you really knew Islam then you wouldn't be speaking like this.

Go to Saudi and Iran both of the countries have shariah are their people happy? No why? They migrated all time and Saudi do the same by moving to Dubai and Qatar or Canada where half of them have second citizen. The numbers of gays in those countries and dirty secretes. They are so obsessed about once they leave their countries turn to beast. I lived in Middle East and I know their life do not sugar coat the truth. Look how their women through hijab in the plane.

 

[Cognitivedissonance]

Go to Saudi and Iran both of the countries have shariah are their people happy? No why? They migrated all time and Saudi do the same by moving to Dubai and Qatar or Canada where half of them have second citizen. The numbers of gays in those countries and dirty secretes. They are so obsessed about once they leave their countries turn to beast. I lived in Middle East and I know their life do not sugar coat the truth. Look how their women through hijab in the plane.

There's no country in the world today that implements shariah, in Saudi Arabia they say it's shariah but it's far from it, likewise Iran too, our deen is not difficult but a small minority amongst us have made it so. Refer to our early history as Muslim in order to see that beauty of the divine laws of the most benevolent the most merciful. You do release that you've committed shirk by lowering the word of Allah & raising the man made one.

 

[SuldaanSeven]

It's odd that he avoids talking about somaliland although it is a stable region of Somalia. Something tells me that ictiraaf is on the way

 

[The Informant]

somaliland although it is a stable region of Somalia.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Matt Bryden has brought forward some very sensitive issues.

1. 1- @11:09 The constitution requires the participation of federal member states, but parliament has decided that all federal member states are interim, including Puntland. This is why whatever amendment is passed will be considered illegitimate by Puntland and other federal states.
2. Listening from @24:35 he is contradicting himself because the 4.5 system seems to be even more difficult to implement as selection system than direct district election. A few minutes before that mark he dismisses Puntland's proposal out of hand.
3. From @48:44 International aid concentration in Mogadishu in the name of helping all Somalis is basically BS. The country has other big population centers including Galkayo-Garowe- Bosaso, Juba Valley, Hargeisa-Gabiley-Wajaale-Borama and Burhakaba-Baidoa. Each of these is equal to if not bigger than Mogadishu. And the amount of aid they receive combined is less than Mogadishu, which is a total failure of understanding because such concentration is what caused the civil war.
4. From 1:11:16 SNA is a clan army from the two big clans in Mogadishu it does NOT represent the Somali population. Further, funding it before it reforms and becomes more inclusive will cause instability as the equilibrium that was reached in the 90s tilts in their favor in places like Mudug and Lower Shabelle.
5. @55:30 Somaliland is not a model for the south because of the diversity in clans and culture in the south. Impersonal state institution will be easier to construct in Somaliland and Puntland due to more homogeneity in those regions. Even Puntland may not be a model for the south according to Bryden's logic.

Interesting talk.

 

[blood]

bryden is here to swell his pockets,he doesnt care about poor dirty somali skinny dying of starvation.why he doesnt talk about the draughts in SL or floods in the south instead of focusing on an institution that is working fine and enjoys the support of the mogadishu people.

 

[TheAnswer]

bryden is here to swell his pockets,he doesnt care about poor dirty somali skinny dying of starvation.why he doesnt talk about the draughts in SL or floods in the south instead of focusing on an institution that is working fine and enjoys the support of the mogadishu people.

So you propose researchers ignore the problems of widespread institutional corruption, mismanagement, and failure that contribute to the poor security and low government capacity? Is that what you are suggesting?!

 

[blood]

all i am saying is corruption exits everywhere,why do you expect much from a gov born just 7 years ago.as long as powerful clans support this gov it will exist and function with rooms for improvement.lets not blow it out of the proportion,lets measure somalia by african standards and not by western standards,the gov has a long way to build permanent strong institutions but we cant deny the success it has achieved in such a short time.lets give it another 15 years inshalah.

 

[TheAnswer]

Even by "African standards," a government stealing 80% of the country's resources is a big problem. That's how much theft is going on based on "conservative" estimates by the UN monitoring group.
Stop enabling this corruption to continue by coming up with excuses and justifications.
You just don't want to admit the corruption because you are an abgaal who identifies with the useless Xamar "government."
Do you know when your uncle Sharif was president 200,000 Somalis starved to death, while he was stealing millions of dollars of aid money? Hassan is just continuing the abgaal tradition.

 

[blood]

first of all,i am not abgaal,i wish i was.lol
the country has no natural resources to begin with,and the aid is only lipservice,it is rarely delivered.sxb i have lived in many countries in africa and asia and i know how deeply corruption is,somalia is no exception.
UN monitoring group is corrupt and not welcome in Mogadishu ,they rarely set foot somalia,resort to hearsay and very weak narrations.
i have been supporting this gov since Abdikasim salad,that is why people like support any kind of dowlad and nidaam how corrupt weak it is over lawlassness and dowlad la`aan.