What if.. (Fictional History)

[Apollo]

If Siad Barre or his appointed successor remained in power in the 90s and the country remained stable. After some recovery what if he tried to invade Djibouti similar to Saddam Hussein did to Kuwait. Would the West intervene?

Discuss.

 

[Sheikh]

If Jaalle Siad Barre or his successor were in power in the 90's and the country was functioning.

In my opinion I think if he and his army would try to invade Djibouti the West wouldn't intervened.

Because Djibouti is Somali.

 

[Apollo]

If Jaalle Siad Barre or his successor were in power in the 90's and the country was functioning.

In my opinion I think if he and his army tried to invade Djibouti the West wouldn't intervened.

Because Djibouti is Somali.

Djibouti is a massively important strategic chokepoint.

The West intervened in Kuwait because of the similar geostrategic location and its massive oil/gas reserves.

 

[Sheikh]

Djibouti is a massively important strategic chokepoint.

The West intervened in Kuwait because of the similar geostrategic location and its massive oil/gas reserves.

I'm aware fam.

But I don't think the West would intervene.

But what about you?

What do you think would happen?

 

[Apollo]

I'll want some others chime in first.

 

[nine]

He would be stopped by Western powers and it would probably be 77 war all over again that's my opinion.
@Shaolin23 @TekNiKo

 

[TekNiKo]

Impossible due to the absolute betrayal during 77. Djibouti was a French and now American protectorate, they would most definitely intervene

 

[.279]

It depends what the ppl of Djibouti would have wanted. West would've intervened if we asked.

But no way siad barre invades if we say no. He repeatedly stated that it was up to djiboutians.

 

[Shushue]

They wouldn’t

Nothing of value there

 

[Jinchuriki]

Fiction must meet reality Siyaad barre will be too old to contiune ruling.

Its depends because he had a pan african and baathi allies, would they be with him with their shared agendas.

I won't discuss must.

 

[esmailxxx]

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/how-do-you-think-somali-society-would-have-been-like.45840/
But f*ck me,right?

 

[La Xawla]

Wouldn’t happen. His regime started going downhill ever since 77. Rapant corruption, nepotism, qabiilism, wage and currency inflation. The whole thing collapsed when the USA pulled the funding/aid that kept the government propped up. He lost the goodwill of the people before the 90s. Anything else is wishful thinking.

 

[Crow]

I think the only obstacle in our way would be France because Somalia could guarantee the west continuity with whatever they had going there in the event of a takeover. France is very interventionist in Africa so they would probably convince their western allies to side with them. I doubt any country except France would commit troops to stop us though.

But the whole idea of a Djibouti invasion is ridiculous. When you have millions of Somalis living under hateful gaalo in Ethiopia and Kenya, invading a fellow free Somali nation should be the last thing on your mind.

 

[repo]

He would never have invaded Djibouti. Djibouti has never been hostile to the Siad Barre regime but if he did the French would intervene since they still colonize much of Africa and wouldn't want a French colony to be subject to Somalia. The World would naturally side with France since Somalia is an aggressor and the Siad Barre regime would suffer from sanctions, a weak grip on power and eventually the civil war would happen a few years later than it did.

 

[Prince Abubu]

Why would Djibouti want to join s? Ask yourselves that. At least, if a was a democratic first-world nation, I'd understand. Why would anyone want to join a dirt-poor, dictatorial one-city state?

 

[Grant]

Where would Somalia's munitions have come from after 91? Bush began disengaging in 1989. The US Berbera agreement expired in 90. The Western powers generally lost interest in Somalia after the US gained bases at Diego Garcia and the Persian Gulf countries. This interest declined further when the US acquired Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti in 2001, which changed that dynamic.

The first Gulf war was 1991. I can't imagine an invasion after that, but if it happened, I think it would have been stopped by the US or others, who would not have allowed both sides of the Bab al-Mandeb choke point to be in Barre's hands.

Here's fairly good coverage after 1980:

https://fpif.org/u-s-empire-bases-middle-east-not-making-anyone-safer/