What if Siad Barre's coup failed and led to civil war in 1969?
- Thread starter Khaem
- Start date
TBH if he didn’t coup we would civil war earlier but would be at peace by now if haile didn’t decide to invade that is
civil war is the normal for every nation and empire. we’d be way better off if it was earlier. technology and development has been growing rapidly and exponentially in the last 30 years compared to 1969. having a civil war and sorting our issues out then instead of 1990 and still figuring out our issues would be better
Khaem
VIP
Also the political situation in Somalia would be more mature if that's the word. Whatever faction that wins in the end would have a strong ideology and state control. Something Somalia today doesn't have. The early Republic was dominanted by a democratic SYL government 1960-67. After the coup it was a dictatorship claiming "Islamic socialism" by Siad Barre 1969-91. But since then there has been no political force that can actually rule Somalia. Just clan militia with no actual goals.
We came close to another group taking over in the middle of the civil war, the Islamic Courts Union. But the US got rid of them quickly.
What ifs is totally pointless and this topic is also pointless.
Here is some perspective, the coup happened in 1969 that is 52 years ago
The civil war happened in 1991 that is 33 years ago.
The median age of Somalis in Somalia is just 15 years old, 47.16% are 0-14 year olds. FFS these topics about Siad Barre aun are so retarded. What Somalis need is to look to the future, and create a future for majority of the population who has never seen the Kacaan, not its positives nor negatives.
Here is some perspective, the coup happened in 1969 that is 52 years ago
The civil war happened in 1991 that is 33 years ago.
The median age of Somalis in Somalia is just 15 years old, 47.16% are 0-14 year olds. FFS these topics about Siad Barre aun are so retarded. What Somalis need is to look to the future, and create a future for majority of the population who has never seen the Kacaan, not its positives nor negatives.
Haaji muhammad hussein path anyday and ngl i feel like we are unlucky cause every other speculated timeline ensured we achieved greater somalia but not in this one.
Somali_patriotic
Everything unuka leh
I think Ethiopia would've overran us if we didn't have a military regime at the time.
Ethiopia was very destabilised when siad invaded. Haile selassie was overthrown and when we invaded we kinda United them. They were in no position militarily to project their power into our borders especially considering the soviets report of their military at the time was that it was basically a shambles. They would’ve had to brutally suppress us knowing our defiant nature , they didn’t have the finances nor the weapons. Remember they were reliant on military aid similar to us. I honestly wonder why previous presidents didn’t leverage the oil we had in exchange for weapons at least we wouldn’t have needed military aid. They found oil in Somali land in 1952 and it was so cheap to extract.
Let's stop beating around the bush the greatest failure of the warlords and their militias was that they were to weak to take the whole country by force and unite it. All this icitiraaf, federalism ICU and Al Shabaab only happened because no one came out on top to rule the whole peninsula.
It's like the italian wars in the early modern period. While the english, spanish and the french strengthened their central states, the italians did not and they eventually got invaded by the latter two who fucked them over so hard it took until garibaldi in the 19th century to unite them. You either unite and create a strong central power or get screwed over by a more well organized central power.
It's like the italian wars in the early modern period. While the english, spanish and the french strengthened their central states, the italians did not and they eventually got invaded by the latter two who fucked them over so hard it took until garibaldi in the 19th century to unite them. You either unite and create a strong central power or get screwed over by a more well organized central power.
You're all delusionals as somalis were never more so divided as they are now so no there wouldn't have been a civil war if the kacaan didn't happen but people would have had a sense of patriotism and brotherhood not ana habel iyo habel nonesense we got currently.
Nothing would have happened because every civilian party in the country respected the Military. It’s the whole reason why nobody protested or resisted the Bloodless Coup, and by 1969, the Armed Forces and the Police Force had already prevented two different unpopular coups. One by Northern officers which was squashed by Southern officers and one by Southern officers which squashed by Northern officers.
There is no indication that a civil-war would have happened because the civilian President would still be alive, with a strong neutral military to keep everyone in check. He was assassinated to make way for the Socialists, who in turn were influenced by the Soviets. All this talk of mass corruption or the state being on the brink of collapse were propaganda points to justify the communist take-over. The worst thing that would have happened is that the country might have economically stagnated in the 1970s, but these were issues that could be reversed with economic reforms, while corruption could have been subdued with greater resource sharing.
One thing is for sure another three to four decades of civilian governments and competitive elections definitely would have put us in a much better shape today if that had been the path we had taken. At worse it would be like the FGS today, but one that actually controlled all of its borders, no arms embargo, still major infrastructure projects and no regional admins within but still headed by controversial characters like HSM. At best we’d be like an African Malaysia.
There is no indication that a civil-war would have happened because the civilian President would still be alive, with a strong neutral military to keep everyone in check. He was assassinated to make way for the Socialists, who in turn were influenced by the Soviets. All this talk of mass corruption or the state being on the brink of collapse were propaganda points to justify the communist take-over. The worst thing that would have happened is that the country might have economically stagnated in the 1970s, but these were issues that could be reversed with economic reforms, while corruption could have been subdued with greater resource sharing.
One thing is for sure another three to four decades of civilian governments and competitive elections definitely would have put us in a much better shape today if that had been the path we had taken. At worse it would be like the FGS today, but one that actually controlled all of its borders, no arms embargo, still major infrastructure projects and no regional admins within but still headed by controversial characters like HSM. At best we’d be like an African Malaysia.
I heard Muse Boqor was going to takeover if it wasn't for the coup?
It would have been less devastating for sure. Plus we wouldn't have flee so much as the west didn't take in so many refugees then.
the coup didn’t happen for multiple days after the assaination. It’s more likely that the army was Soviet influenced, the CIA assassinated the president to make way for the pro-west prime minister, then the army launched a coup because they feared he would cut their funding
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