Just like in Gaza and the West Bank, the chaos is mostly caused by Somalia's southern & western neighbor, Ethiopia. Hence, AS, in all honesty, is not the actually problem. It is clearly the solution. Hear me out please.
I think that AS chooses not to become the official State of Somalia (hence factions like Madoobe, Shariff and Mukhtar isn't surprising, the State welcomes them to try and come to an understanding, but AS does not want to).
For the time being, it is probably a better choice for them to live in place where the weak veneer of a somewhat internationally compatible state structure. Somali State, as a centralised polity is just a dog-and-pony show, really. HSM has no awood outside of the capital (and possibly HS & GM).
However, depending on what metrics you use, Somalia is an extremely powerful entity.
It is exactly because the Somali State is so weak that AS could emerge as an impressive military power. Again, non-State actors are fundamentally more efficient and more effective at what they do than State actors. This is the case in every field, apparently, also in the military field. How can this non-state military actor literally resist every Western military all brotheled into Xalane and AMISOM for 15+ years.
Without AS, Kenya & Ethiopia would still try to expand and occupy Southern Somalia (Jubaland). Instead, they are now cowering for the military might of AS, sending delegation after delegation, begging AS on their knees not to attack them (which I am in no way endorsing, attacks like September 2013 mall attack is despicable. I am merely explaining what is going on, the role of political analysis).
The way I see it, the State is a mafia that can possibly protect you, but so are non-State actors such as AS. You cannot rob people or burn down houses in areas controlled by non-State militia. I am in favor of a violent response to robbing and arson. Believe me that a non-State actor such as AS will be more effective at preventing people to steal from others (evidence is ICU in the mid 2000's and its success, untill US (under the proxy of Ethiopia, due to them being in Afghanistan & Iraq and being worn thin) had to stir up a real hornet's nest under the pretense of countering terrorism (through using war lords, I love Abdullahi Yusuf but this was a political blunder imo there were otherways to go about it than asking for Ethiopian support). AS actions within Xamar and outside of Xamar are two completely different agendas. They do not just put thieves in jail. They also unceremoniously chop off their hands, which is in my opinion more convincing as a deterrent.
In absence of a State, there will always be a non-State militia that will attack and destroy anyone trying to violate or overrule natural or divine law.
Whether I support them or not, really depends on the moral theory of such dominant or even official militia.
If they liberally invent laws by themselves, I cannot support them, because in that case they expect a blank check from me (which is what they do in Xamar, they are quite literally mafia).
Best sources on this imo is Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram: Guerrilla INsurgency or Strategic Terrorism? By John Maszka.
Please do not reduce this to calling me a AS sympathiser. I despise their actions in Xamar (and Bosaso), SNM-funded mafia. However, we simply cannot 'eradicate' but rather 'incorporate' into militia as they clearly effective keeping out Ethiopia & Kenya (with the full backing of AMISON & Western brothel that is Xalane).
I'd love to see JL free and can manouvre around the South to see all the cities that my family lived in, its a sentimental topic for me. However, there needs to be pragmatism imo, HSM, Madoobe or any other 'president' (whatever power that title actually holds) will not take out AS, they are here to stay. So lets be pragmatic, use them like Hezbollah and other non-state actors where they essentially do our bidding within the Southern borders and co-operate with them with that objective (Kenya & Ethiopia would be shivering in fear, we would be ostracised within international politics (one could say we already are) and it would look like a backwards move but at this point, whats the worst that can happen? What would happen is some sembelance of security in Xamar and across the South and our neighbours would return to their meek ways, I do not respect the avg Kenyan as they are docile humans, hence the British infatuation with them, and Ethiopians are confused power-hungry and just as irascible as we are but they hide it with the facade of 'never been colonised' and Christianity, but pamper to the West.
The blue is alshabaab checkpoints, lower juba is their stomping grounds.
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