What is the plan for Jubbaland?

[Waamo Warrior]

Can someone update me on what’s going on.

Is there an election happening soon?

If so who are the front runners and which candidate is for the betterment of JL?

How does this constitution shit affect us?

Is Lower Jubba AS free? I want to buy some land inbetween Kismayo and Burgabo.

 

[aarkamudug]

Can someone update me on what’s going on.

Is there an election happening soon?

If so who are the front runners and which candidate is for the betterment of JL?

How does this constitution shit affect us?

Is Lower Jubba AS free? I want to buy some land inbetween Kismayo and Burgabo.

Horta what’s your qabiil sxb?

 

[Sufyan]

Is there an election happening soon?

If so who are the front runners and which candidate is for the betterment of JL?

There is a ‘election’ due soon but its all a sham . Most likely wont happen

If so who are the front runners and which candidate is for the betterment of JL?

Any candidate thats not madoobe would be an improvement

How does this constitution shit affect us?

Still unclear

Is Lower Jubba AS free? I want to buy some land inbetween Kismayo and Burgabo.

Depends on where exactly. Your qabil is also an important factor

 

[Waamo Warrior]

Horta what’s your qabiil sxb?

I’m Baalcad Absame and my people are originally from Jilib & Jamaame. As you can imagine I wouldn’t want to live there for obvious reasons lol

 

[DubatDiaries]

Is Lower Jubba AS free? I want to buy some land inbetween Kismayo and Burgabo.

The blue is alshabaab checkpoints, lower juba is their stomping grounds.

 

[Waamo Warrior]

W

The blue is alshabaab checkpoints, lower juba is their stomping grounds.
View attachment 315742

What an absolute shithole Somalia is smh

 

[DubatDiaries]

What an absolute shithole Somalia is smh

Not a shithole, we are just in a bit of a shitty political situation

 

[Pastoralist]

The blue is alshabaab checkpoints, lower juba is their stomping grounds.
View attachment 315742

Is madoobe himself shabaab? I’m genuinely curious

 

[Somali Saayid]

Is madoobe himself shabaab? I’m genuinely curious

He has a gentlemens agreement, they split charcoal revenue 50/50 and AS don’t push towards Kismayo nor Madoobe to Jilib.

 

[Somali Saayid]

@DR OSMAN why the laught emoji this is true the guy has his hand firmly on his throne, maybe if he gets enough money he will retire to Abu Dhabi or Switzerland.

 

[Bazed]

Jubbaland is a statement. While the government is focused on mopping up the remnants of central AS holdouts, Jubbaland has kinda not changed at all. The government will have to commit to a full scale war when they finally get there.

 

[cow]

It will remain the same, until the west gets bored and stops funding amisom. Then either al shabaab will take over or local clans will take over.

 

[Tiyeglow]

I’m Baalcad Absame and my people are originally from Jilib & Jamaame. As you can imagine I wouldn’t want to live there for obvious reasons lol

Damn, my pops is literally from there. Born in the former, bred in the latter.

 

[Tiyeglow]

Essentially, JL is the quinessential city-state. Everything it has comes from Kismayo. This is unlike any other gobol in Somalia, and it isn't even bad in and of itself. The issue is that the cancer that surrounds the city-state means it isn't even governable.

 

[Waamo Warrior]

Damn, my pops is literally from there. Born in the former, bred in the latter.

same exact story for us too. My pops did somewhat grow up there but later moved to af madow then went to nfd during the dagaal. Now our lands are occupied by animals lol

 

[Tiyeglow]

same exact story for us too. My pops did somewhat grow up there but later moved to af madow then went to nfd during the dagaal. Now our lands are occupied by animals lol

Yeah, I've pretty much accepted that Jubaland is a city-state built solely around Kismayo.

Whats interesting however about your comment is that everyone is obsessed with Somali Galbeed within the context of Somaliweyne, but its far more practical to try to push first for Southern Juba (NFD region, I advisedly don't refer to it as NFD as I locate it from the Somali base not the Kenyan, same with Somali Galbeed).

 

[DubatDiaries]

Is madoobe himself shabaab? I’m genuinely curious

He was a governor in the ICU and I think he was also involved in al Itihad, not alshabaab.

 

[Tiyeglow]

Just like in Gaza and the West Bank, the chaos is mostly caused by Somalia's southern & western neighbor, Ethiopia. Hence, AS, in all honesty, is not the actually problem. It is clearly the solution. Hear me out please.

I think that AS chooses not to become the official State of Somalia (hence factions like Madoobe, Shariff and Mukhtar isn't surprising, the State welcomes them to try and come to an understanding, but AS does not want to).

For the time being, it is probably a better choice for them to live in place where the weak veneer of a somewhat internationally compatible state structure. Somali State, as a centralised polity is just a dog-and-pony show, really. HSM has no awood outside of the capital (and possibly HS & GM).

However, depending on what metrics you use, Somalia is an extremely powerful entity.

It is exactly because the Somali State is so weak that AS could emerge as an impressive military power. Again, non-State actors are fundamentally more efficient and more effective at what they do than State actors. This is the case in every field, apparently, also in the military field. How can this non-state military actor literally resist every Western military all brotheled into Xalane and AMISOM for 15+ years.

Without AS, Kenya & Ethiopia would still try to expand and occupy Southern Somalia (Jubaland). Instead, they are now cowering for the military might of AS, sending delegation after delegation, begging AS on their knees not to attack them (which I am in no way endorsing, attacks like September 2013 mall attack is despicable. I am merely explaining what is going on, the role of political analysis).


The way I see it, the State is a mafia that can possibly protect you, but so are non-State actors such as AS. You cannot rob people or burn down houses in areas controlled by non-State militia. I am in favor of a violent response to robbing and arson. Believe me that a non-State actor such as AS will be more effective at preventing people to steal from others (evidence is ICU in the mid 2000's and its success, untill US (under the proxy of Ethiopia, due to them being in Afghanistan & Iraq and being worn thin) had to stir up a real hornet's nest under the pretense of countering terrorism (through using war lords, I love Abdullahi Yusuf but this was a political blunder imo there were otherways to go about it than asking for Ethiopian support). AS actions within Xamar and outside of Xamar are two completely different agendas. They do not just put thieves in jail. They also unceremoniously chop off their hands, which is in my opinion more convincing as a deterrent.

In absence of a State, there will always be a non-State militia that will attack and destroy anyone trying to violate or overrule natural or divine law.

Whether I support them or not, really depends on the moral theory of such dominant or even official militia.

If they liberally invent laws by themselves, I cannot support them, because in that case they expect a blank check from me (which is what they do in Xamar, they are quite literally mafia).



Best sources on this imo is Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram: Guerrilla INsurgency or Strategic Terrorism? By John Maszka.
Please do not reduce this to calling me a AS sympathiser. I despise their actions in Xamar (and Bosaso), SNM-funded mafia. However, we simply cannot 'eradicate' but rather 'incorporate' into militia as they clearly effective keeping out Ethiopia & Kenya (with the full backing of AMISON & Western brothel that is Xalane).

I'd love to see JL free and can manouvre around the South to see all the cities that my family lived in, its a sentimental topic for me. However, there needs to be pragmatism imo, HSM, Madoobe or any other 'president' (whatever power that title actually holds) will not take out AS, they are here to stay. So lets be pragmatic, use them like Hezbollah and other non-state actors where they essentially do our bidding within the Southern borders and co-operate with them with that objective (Kenya & Ethiopia would be shivering in fear, we would be ostracised within international politics (one could say we already are) and it would look like a backwards move but at this point, whats the worst that can happen? What would happen is some sembelance of security in Xamar and across the South and our neighbours would return to their meek ways, I do not respect the avg Kenyan as they are docile humans, hence the British infatuation with them, and Ethiopians are confused power-hungry and just as irascible as we are but they hide it with the facade of 'never been colonised' and Christianity, but pamper to the West.

The blue is alshabaab checkpoints, lower juba is their stomping grounds.
View attachment 315742

 

[White-Macrobian]

Just like in Gaza and the West Bank, the chaos is mostly caused by Somalia's southern & western neighbor, Ethiopia. Hence, AS, in all honesty, is not the actually problem. It is clearly the solution. Hear me out please.

I think that AS chooses not to become the official State of Somalia (hence factions like Madoobe, Shariff and Mukhtar isn't surprising, the State welcomes them to try and come to an understanding, but AS does not want to).

For the time being, it is probably a better choice for them to live in place where the weak veneer of a somewhat internationally compatible state structure. Somali State, as a centralised polity is just a dog-and-pony show, really. HSM has no awood outside of the capital (and possibly HS & GM).

However, depending on what metrics you use, Somalia is an extremely powerful entity.

It is exactly because the Somali State is so weak that AS could emerge as an impressive military power. Again, non-State actors are fundamentally more efficient and more effective at what they do than State actors. This is the case in every field, apparently, also in the military field. How can this non-state military actor literally resist every Western military all brotheled into Xalane and AMISOM for 15+ years.

Without AS, Kenya & Ethiopia would still try to expand and occupy Southern Somalia (Jubaland). Instead, they are now cowering for the military might of AS, sending delegation after delegation, begging AS on their knees not to attack them (which I am in no way endorsing, attacks like September 2013 mall attack is despicable. I am merely explaining what is going on, the role of political analysis).


The way I see it, the State is a mafia that can possibly protect you, but so are non-State actors such as AS. You cannot rob people or burn down houses in areas controlled by non-State militia. I am in favor of a violent response to robbing and arson. Believe me that a non-State actor such as AS will be more effective at preventing people to steal from others (evidence is ICU in the mid 2000's and its success, untill US (under the proxy of Ethiopia, due to them being in Afghanistan & Iraq and being worn thin) had to stir up a real hornet's nest under the pretense of countering terrorism (through using war lords, I love Abdullahi Yusuf but this was a political blunder imo there were otherways to go about it than asking for Ethiopian support). AS actions within Xamar and outside of Xamar are two completely different agendas. They do not just put thieves in jail. They also unceremoniously chop off their hands, which is in my opinion more convincing as a deterrent.

In absence of a State, there will always be a non-State militia that will attack and destroy anyone trying to violate or overrule natural or divine law.

Whether I support them or not, really depends on the moral theory of such dominant or even official militia.

If they liberally invent laws by themselves, I cannot support them, because in that case they expect a blank check from me (which is what they do in Xamar, they are quite literally mafia).



Best sources on this imo is Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram: Guerrilla INsurgency or Strategic Terrorism? By John Maszka.
Please do not reduce this to calling me a AS sympathiser. I despise their actions in Xamar (and Bosaso), SNM-funded mafia. However, we simply cannot 'eradicate' but rather 'incorporate' into militia as they clearly effective keeping out Ethiopia & Kenya (with the full backing of AMISON & Western brothel that is Xalane).

I'd love to see JL free and can manouvre around the South to see all the cities that my family lived in, its a sentimental topic for me. However, there needs to be pragmatism imo, HSM, Madoobe or any other 'president' (whatever power that title actually holds) will not take out AS, they are here to stay. So lets be pragmatic, use them like Hezbollah and other non-state actors where they essentially do our bidding within the Southern borders and co-operate with them with that objective (Kenya & Ethiopia would be shivering in fear, we would be ostracised within international politics (one could say we already are) and it would look like a backwards move but at this point, whats the worst that can happen? What would happen is some sembelance of security in Xamar and across the South and our neighbours would return to their meek ways, I do not respect the avg Kenyan as they are docile humans, hence the British infatuation with them, and Ethiopians are confused power-hungry and just as irascible as we are but they hide it with the facade of 'never been colonised' and Christianity, but pamper to the West.

Why do u think that AS is here to stay tho ? I get ur point that ppl rather live under AS rule than in no rule. But as soon a state can provide rule why do u think that ppl would still prefer AS governance ? AS rule might be good for the people right now, but AS doesn´t seem like a organisation that invests in the future of its people. Don´t get me wrong the FGS does not either but its more likely to have a change in the FGS than in some authoritarian terrorist org.

And ur comparison with Hizbollah was spot on but in the long run thats not a good idea. Because of Hizbollah Lebanon has always a target on its back. Isreal and its western allies can literally just bomb any southern Lebanese city in the name of counter terrorism etc. This would be an handy cause for our enemies if we let AS do their shannanigans.

I know that somalis don´t wanna hear that but we need to suck up to the west, alteast so long that we can somewhat stand on our own. The last thing we need is condemnation from the west.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

What has this nigga Madoobe been all these years with the port/airport revenues? Shabaab are literally outside Kismaayo. The worse part of all this is he still wants to stay on.