What will JL Operation(Phase 3)be like?

[The Midlands]

Many think it is impossible but it is not. The Khawarij will be exhausted after being crushed in the central regions and south-west so they will not be able to resist fresh forces like those who were trained in Eritrea and the experience from phase 1 and phase 2 operations
It will start on three fronts: a Coastal front from Baraawe to Jilib, The Baardheere-Diinsoor-Saakow front and the Afmadow-Buaale front. Middle jubba has only these three districts then next Jamaame in lower Jubba after that they will deploy forces in the border strip with Kenya from Ceelwaaq to the coast of Lower Jubba in preparation for the departure of ATMIS after two years.

 

[GemState]

I don't even think it's logistically possible for any Somali militia to take & hold Middle Juba. Barely any roads and the terrain is favorable for insurgents, Galgaduud is flatland that's mostly been AS-free for years even before this offensive and the SNA is already struggling there with VBIEDs. Imagine a gobol that's 100% under AS?

You'll need Ethiopia & months of constant airstrikes

 

[TekNiKo]

 

[SPMLegend]

Middle Juba consists of Jilib,Bu’aale,Saakow & Salagle districts.

Salagle is closer to Dhobley district. Bu’aale is closer to Xagar & Afmadow. Jilib is next door with Jamaame & Kismayo.

 

[SPMLegend]

There’s thousands of Jubbaland forces manning the border and there is no need for any forces to be deployed there. We’ve seen what Farmaajo did in Beledxaawo when he lied about “defending” the borders. It’s best to assume otherwise.


The likely scenario is that the newly trained forces will work alongside with JL state forces in dislodging AS from Jilib & Jamaame Districts.

The Head Commander of the Eritrean trained forces Taliye Abdirisaaq is Jidle but his Reer Abti’s from his mother side are Reer Isaaq Ogaaden

Jidle have close relationship with Ogaden in DDs it’s why many famous figures claim Ogaden like Abdi Dhaanto for example

 

[JigjigaKismaayo]

^He's mom is rer abdille.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

I don't even think it's logistically possible for any Somali militia to take & hold Middle Juba. Barely any roads and the terrain is favorable for insurgents, Galgaduud is flatland that's mostly been AS-free for years even before this offensive and the SNA is already struggling there with VBIEDs. Imagine a gobol that's 100% under AS?

You'll need Ethiopia & months of constant airstrikes

Jilib is easily accessible from afmadow compared to kismaayo and jamame where it’s full of swamps. shabab is finished militarily they have been defeated their last show where they put serious fights were hiiraan and their failed suicidal attack on bakool.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Middle Juba consists of Jilib,Bu’aale,Saakow & Salagle districts.

Salagle is closer to Dhobley district. Bu’aale is closer to Xagar & Afmadow. Jilib is next door with Jamaame & Kismayo.

Exactly, the closest town to salagle is dhuyac garoon it’s a free man’s land sometimes jubaland forces go there sometime shabab stay there. Salagale is the easiest town to capture from dhobley. From afmadow xagar and buale is a stone throw away. I think they will free buale before jilib. Also jilib will be freed from afmadow instead of jamame and it’s swamps. After key towns in middle juba is freed then a Macawis leh style to hunt them in badiyaha will be the last offense.

The only reason this towns are not taken is because shabab likes to combine their forces from all different tuuloa and cities into one camp like they did in bakool. They attack with 1500 fighters, let’s say a town like like salagle has only 400 soldiers it will be a disaster.

 

[SPMLegend]

I will soon update this thread once the howlgals start

Keep tabs

https://www.somalispot.com/threads/jubaland%E2%80%99s-security-info.134232/page-2

 

[The Midlands]

There’s thousands of Jubbaland forces manning the border and there is no need for any forces to be deployed there. We’ve seen what Farmaajo did in Beledxaawo when he lied about “defending” the borders. It’s best to assume otherwise.


The likely scenario is that the newly trained forces will work alongside with JL state forces in dislodging AS from Jilib & Jamaame Districts.

View attachment 249744

The Head Commander of the Eritrean trained forces Taliye Abdirisaaq is Jidle but his Reer Abti’s from his mother side are Reer Isaaq Ogaaden

Jidle have close relationship with Ogaden in DDs it’s why many famous figures claim Ogaden like Abdi Dhaanto for example

View attachment 249745
View attachment 249746

"There’s thousands of Jubbaland forces manning the border and there is no need for any forces to be deployed there. We’ve seen what Farmaajo did in Beledxaawo when he lied about “defending” the borders. "

this is against Khawarijta not JL or Kenya! Basically before ATMIS leave after two years they will build SNA bases and airports in all small towns in All FMS and the border area with Kenya in lower Juba and parts of Gedo to facilitate troops movements this will be done in a year and half UAE and donors will be funding it. Constitution will be finished in this year then no more clashes between the SFG AND SOUTHERN FMS MADOOBE WILL SIGN IT!
Thousands of troops trained in egypt will be deployed in the post liberation for stabilization. Those trained in Eritrea will do the liberation job. ABDIRIZAQ ERITREA IS ADVISOR FOR ERITREA AND NISA OFFICER NOT THEIR COMMANDER.

 

[The Midlands]

Exactly, the closest town to salagle is dhuyac garoon it’s a free man’s land sometimes jubaland forces go there sometime shabab stay there. Salagale is the easiest town to capture from dhobley. From afmadow xagar and buale is a stone throw away. I think they will free buale before jilib. Also jilib will be freed from afmadow instead of jamame and it’s swamps. After key towns in middle juba is freed then a Macawis leh style to hunt them in badiyaha will be the last offense.

The only reason this towns are not taken is because shabab likes to combine their forces from all different tuuloa and cities into one camp like they did in bakool. They attack with 1500 fighters, let’s say a town like like salagle has only 400 soldiers it will be a disaster.

it will be like Gobolada dhexe for clan sensitivity. JILIB AND SAAKOW WILL BE LIBERATED FROM DIINSOOR, BAARDHEERE AND BARAAWE SAME LIKE CEELDHEERE AND XARARDHEERE BUAALE FROM AFMADOW!
Your suggestion will f*ck up the liberation wich is the reason why you are stuck in lower jubba for 11 years. Al Shabaab will use these marginalised clans again so they must lead the operation in freeing them.

If you can free it by your own go free it!

 

[SPMLegend]

"There’s thousands of Jubbaland forces manning the border and there is no need for any forces to be deployed there. We’ve seen what Farmaajo did in Beledxaawo when he lied about “defending” the borders. "

this is against Khawarijta not JL or Kenya! Basically before ATMIS leave after two years they will build SNA bases and airports in all small towns in All FMS and the border area with Kenya in lower Juba and parts of Gedo to facilitate troops movements this will be done in a year and half UAE and donors will be funding it. Constitution will be finished in this year then no more clashes between the SFG AND SOUTHERN FMS MADOOBE WILL SIGN IT!

There is already SNA bases in lower Juba region. Alongside JL forces. General BogMadow inspected the troops just last month.
if the war is against Khawarijta then it should be focused on Middle Juba where they are occupying.

Let’s not get carried out.
I highly doubt the constitution will be finished this term.

 

[SPMLegend]

So basically The Midlands wants Federal troops to have free passage in our region with limited control from Jubbaland state.

What happens if these troops have their own separate base & airfield? What if JL & the FGS do not see eye to eye in the near future.

The Somali Troops in Eritrea will only operate in Jubbaland once they come under the state system. PM Hamza seems to Agree.

We don’t want these foreign troops becoming the next PSF that takes orders from America and not Puntland or “Badbaado Qaran”

It’s either my way or the highway sir

 

[SPMLegend]

Your suggestion will f*ck up the liberation wich is the reason why you are stuck in lower jubba for 11 years. Al Shabaab will use these marginalised clans again so they must lead the operation in freeing them.

If you can free it by your own go free it!

Al-Shabab will re-emerge in Gobollada Dhexe if no efforts are taken to remove them from the Deep South. Koonfur Galbeed can not be liberated without a joint operation between Jubbaland & SWS administrations.

Al-Shabab is massacring Hawiye tribe especially Hawadle. Hormuud owned by the 2 biggest terrorist supporting tribes (Duduble+Murusade) provide your network & information to Mahad Karataay’s Amniyaat.

@Themidlands I don’t want my region to become a playground for different clan militas. Even if you accept Hiiraan being a base camp for Jacfar’s milita,Saneey’s milita, Gaaljecl liberation front, and HG forces in Maxaas. My region already seen civil war & destruction. We will not welcome clan militas that chew Khat all day.

Jubbaland will eventually free itself but we don’t need outsiders telling us how we should be doing just that

 

[The Midlands]

So basically The Midlands wants Federal troops to have free passage in our region with limited control from Jubbaland state.

What happens if these troops have their own separate base & airfield? What if JL & the FGS do not see eye to eye in the near future.

The Somali Troops in Eritrea will only operate in Jubbaland once they come under the state system. PM Hamza seems to Agree.
We don’t want these troops becoming the next PSF that takes orders from America or “Badbaado Qaran”

It’s either my way or the highway sir

SNA belongs to the SFG not FMS who are responsible for the police. Darvish forces are not SNA. SNA is responsiple for all republic. Ahmed Madobe will sign the the last constitutional draft that will fully state it it will be released wihin this year. IC was told to you have to support where the majority goes. 4 FMS vs 1 FMS they told the IC PL wants to be like SL we will go without her we need to fix the South central Somalia first then these two will rejoin us automatically once the south gets estabilized

Xamse is a disciple of Hassan Sheikh you know that

SNA will enter Saakow and Jilib From Gedo and bakool and coastal lower Shabelle before you!

 

[Bowda-dheer]

it will be like Gobolada dhexe for clan sensitivity. JILIB AND SAAKOW WILL BE LIBERATED FROM DIINSOOR, BAARDHEERE AND BARAAWE SAME LIKE CEELDHEERE AND XARARDHEERE BUAALE FROM AFMADOW!
Your suggestion will f*ck up the liberation wich is the reason why you are stuck in lower jubba for 11 years. Al Shabaab will use these marginalised clans again so they must lead the operation in freeing them.

If you can free it by your own go free it!

There’s over 800 gelidle and macalinweyne soldiers currently in reserve under jubaland. They’re represented by a wasiir ku xigeen in jubaland. And saakow is next to salagle only the river divides the two towns 15 miles from each other. Gelidle are not your usual marginalized clan they rule over the northern saakow part of the river all the way to baydhabo outskirts. I don’t know why you think Hawiye are saviors for the southern DM and Madow clans when hawiye practically run afgoye to barawe eating all the taxes and holding most important jagooyin. You want the DM in middle juba powerless like the ones in lower Shabeele? Wlh I want no Hawiye armed in jubooyinka am actually for the idea of arming tuni from jilib all the way to barawe.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

Al-Shabab will re-emerge in Gobollada Dhexe if no efforts are taken to remove them from the Deep South. Koonfur Galbeed can not be liberated without a joint operation between Jubbaland & SWS administrations.

Al-Shabab is massacring Hawiye tribe especially Hawadle. Hormuud owned by the 2 biggest terrorist supporting tribes (Duduble+Murusade) provide your network & information to Mahad Karataay’s Amniyaat.

@Themidlands I don’t want my region to become a playground for different clan militas. Even if you accept Hiiraan being a base camp for Jacfar’s milita,Saneey’s milita, Gaaljecl liberation front, and HG forces in Maxaas. My region already seen civil war & destruction. We will not welcome clan militas that chew Khat all day.

Jubbaland will eventually free itself but we don’t need outsiders telling us how we should be doing just that

Ustaadka wants a Hawiye vs kuumade battlefield in jilib

 

[Jungle]

SNA belongs to the SFG not FMS who are responsible for the police. Darvish forces are not SNA. SNA is responsiple for all republic. Ahmed Madobe will sign the the last constitutional draft that will fully state it it will be released wihin this year. IC was told to you have to support where the majority goes. 4 FMS vs 1 FMS they told the IC PL wants to be like SL we will go without her we need to fix the South central Somalia first then these two will rejoin us automatically once the south gets estabilized

Xamse is a disciple of Hassan Sheikh you know that

SNA will enter Saakow and Jilib From Gedo and bakool and coastal lower Shabelle before you!

The first time I think I've agreed with you on here.

There’s thousands of Jubbaland forces manning the border and there is no need for any forces to be deployed there. We’ve seen what Farmaajo did in Beledxaawo when he lied about “defending” the borders. It’s best to assume otherwise.


The likely scenario is that the newly trained forces will work alongside with JL state forces in dislodging AS from Jilib & Jamaame Districts.

View attachment 249744

The Head Commander of the Eritrean trained forces Taliye Abdirisaaq is Jidle but his Reer Abti’s from his mother side are Reer Isaaq Ogaaden

Jidle have close relationship with Ogaden in DDs it’s why many famous figures claim Ogaden like Abdi Dhaanto for example

View attachment 249745
View attachment 249746

Abdirisaq doesn't work for you and cagdheer didn't get him his job. Abdi dhaanto has never claimed ogaden in his life. If he did he wouldn't of lasted in Xamar this long you joker. Maanta reer abtigeey aa soo gashay be. Isku xishood umadda ha sheeg sheegan.

 

[Bowda-dheer]

The first time I think I've agreed with you on here.

Abdirisaq doesn't work for you and cagdheer didn't get him his job. Abdi dhaanto has never claimed ogaden in his life. If he did he wouldn't of lasted in Xamar this long you joker. Maanta reer abtigeey aa soo gashay be. Isku xishood umadda ha sheeg sheegan.

Anybody can last in xamar as long ast they stay away from kaaraan and abgaal xaafado.

 

[SPMLegend]

SNA belongs to the SFG not FMS who are responsible for the police. Darvish forces are not SNA. SNA is responsiple for all republic. Ahmed Madobe will sign the the last constitutional draft that will fully state it it will be released wihin this year. IC was told to you have to support where the majority goes. 4 FMS vs 1 FMS they told the IC PL wants to be like SL we will go without her we need to fix the South central Somalia first then these two will rejoin us automatically once the south gets estabilized

SNA is not just your Hawiye militas in Xamar. Just know we are SNA too
Is it wrong for me to say that I want my native sons from Sarinley & Hargeeysa Yareey to guard over me vs a stranger from Wabxo or Goof Gaduud?

secondly why are you so trustful & needing of the IC? I know they help pay your rent bill & fix your
Monthly budget but let’s not get too carried away.

Xamse is a disciple of Hassan Sheikh you know that

He is Ogaden first & foremost that’s all that matters. We support him when does good and criticize him when it’s the opposite. Do you think we would give a flying F*ck about the DamulJadiid administration if Hamze was not PM

We are not buddy buddies here mate. We have common interests but let’s not override that right now

SNA will enter Saakow and Jilib From Gedo and bakool and coastal lower Shabelle before you!

Good luck with the one sided offensive imaginations

In Bakool you have to free multiple villages and lift many towns from sieges before moving onto Bay region. Xudur is a self example of Go’doon.
Diinsoor,Baardheere, Buurdhuubo etc…

only the Ogaden parts of Bakool can be counted for as entirely liberated. Getting pro Shabab clans to switch allegiances plus hold down towns such as Tiyeeglow will take months of planning and operation.

Moving onto Gedo region there is not 1 town past Luuq that you can freely travel on a vehicle without coming across AS. From Beledxaawo to Caracase to Garbahareey = Shabaab. From Garbahareey to buurdhuubo which is only 40 kms = Shabab. Luuq & Doolow route is where NISA commander Bakaal Kooke was struck by an IED and killed inside his vehicle.

Lower Shabelle region let’s not even talk about that place