Do you ever see Ethiopia going into full blown civil war or will the TLPF contain these protests?I been following the developments lately in our neighboring country but the lack of organized armed groups means it can still be contained.
The hardest thing is going to be getting arms into the hands of the rebels especially when Ethiopia has tight control over its borders. The reason Syria and Libya fell in to chaos so easily is because arms were being supplied by outside nations like the west and gulf states so the Amhara and Oromos need outside sponsors if they want to pull this off.
As for the Somalis, I honestly don't see a unified movement that will protect our interest there, Abdi Iley and his liyu will probably stay loyal to the tigray and even if he defects nobody will respect his authority thanks to his years of abuse of local communities. The ONLF (doesn't it even exitst anymore?) has a tribal tone to it which might prevent people from working with it. I see each clan controlling it's turf like in Somali today bickering until the the dust settles.
So in an essence we are fucked, we should pray our next overlords are more compassionate than the current ones.
The hardest thing is going to be getting arms into the hands of the rebels especially when Ethiopia has tight control over its borders. The reason Syria and Libya fell in to chaos so easily is because arms were being supplied by outside nations like the west and gulf states so the Amhara and Oromos need outside sponsors if they want to pull this off.
As for the Somalis, I honestly don't see a unified movement that will protect our interest there, Abdi Iley and his liyu will probably stay loyal to the tigray and even if he defects nobody will respect his authority thanks to his years of abuse of local communities. The ONLF (doesn't it even exitst anymore?) has a tribal tone to it which might prevent people from working with it. I see each clan controlling it's turf like in Somali today bickering until the the dust settles.
So in an essence we are fucked, we should pray our next overlords are more compassionate than the current ones.