Would ASWJ have defeated Al Shabab if they were armed instead of HAG clans to fight Al Shabab?

[World]

I’m against arming non state actors and don’t think it’s a viable policy for fighting Al Shabab.

But I think that if they were armed with tens of millions of dollars instead of HAG clans, they would have fared much better and probably defeated Al Shabab in Galmudug/Hiirshabelle.

ASWJ would be like the Somali version of Hezbollah.

 

[reer]

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[World]

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I was talking militarily tbh

I see al shabab as a guerrilla insurgent movement with pan-clan support, and ASWJ are the same. Except they would have the backing of the government, drone/air support, and tens of millions of dollars in arms.

 

[mudugnapalm]

I was talking militarily tbh

I see al shabab as a guerrilla insurgent movement with pan-clan support, and ASWJ are the same. Except they would have the backing of the government, drone/air support, and tens of millions of dollars in arms.

Not even remotely the same lol. ASWJ is literally just a sufi branded HG militia whereas AS is a fledgeling state at this point. AS has military, police, intelligence, media, education, financial, farming & livestock, tax collection, tribal relations, proactive recruiting, infrastructure, external & foreign operations departments all showing high levels of organization, cooperation, competence, reach, and no signs of slowing down. As long as you keep wanting to fight AS from one front, militarily (which 15+ governments and counting have failed at so far) you'll never overpower AS apart from the occasional remote tuulo "liberation" that AS will isolate until it's inhabitants starve then be recaptured 3 months later. Why do we never talk about this? Why do we keep accepting lies and mindless propaganda about "AS will be finished this year"? Why is it that everyone who calls out these blatant issues is attacked and called an AS sympathizer? When will we wake up?

 

[Nin123]

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So you are ok with former?

 

[Riftvalley]

Not even remotely the same lol. ASWJ is literally just a sufi branded HG militia whereas AS is a fledgeling state at this point. AS has military, police, intelligence, media, education, financial, farming & livestock, tax collection, tribal relations, proactive recruiting, infrastructure, external & foreign operations departments all showing high levels of organization, cooperation, competence, reach, and no signs of slowing down. As long as you keep wanting to fight AS from one front, militarily (which 15+ governments and counting have failed at so far) you'll never overpower AS apart from the occasional remote tuulo "liberation" that AS will isolate until it's inhabitants starve then be recaptured 3 months later. Why do we never talk about this? Why do we keep accepting lies and mindless propaganda about "AS will be finished this year"? Why is it that everyone who calls out these blatant issues is attacked and called an AS sympathizer? When will we wake up?

The truth is the populations of central Somalia were somewhat receptive to AS after the Ethio withdrawal. They just started going bezerk and that thought they were Ibn Saud 18th century Arabia, destroying tombs and trying to control every facet of life.

 

[Avalanche]

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ASWJ is a more moderate Muslim

 

[World]

Not even remotely the same lol. ASWJ is literally just a sufi branded HG militia whereas AS is a fledgeling state at this point. AS has military, police, intelligence, media, education, financial, farming & livestock, tax collection, tribal relations, proactive recruiting, infrastructure, external & foreign operations departments all showing high levels of organization, cooperation, competence, reach, and no signs of slowing down. As long as you keep wanting to fight AS from one front, militarily (which 15+ governments and counting have failed at so far) you'll never overpower AS apart from the occasional remote tuulo "liberation" that AS will isolate until it's inhabitants starve then be recaptured 3 months later. Why do we never talk about this? Why do we keep accepting lies and mindless propaganda about "AS will be finished this year"? Why is it that everyone who calls out these blatant issues is attacked and called an AS sympathizer? When will we wake up?

When Al Shabab were at the height of their strength, ASWJ alone was able to defeat them in Galgaduud, South Mudug and East Hiiraan and keep these regions Al Shabab-free. Somali governments just piggybacked on their success and then weakened/destroyed them.

Reality is, take away foreign forces then somali government will collapse, and ASWJ will rise again keeping central somalia free from Al shabab! Very low iq to give useless HAG clan militias tens of millions of dollars in weaponry, instead of ASWJ.

Don’t act like you aren’t an Al shabab supporter, u literally want to ban women education.

 

[Haragwaafi]

When Al Shabab were at the height of their strength, ASWJ alone was able to defeat them in Galgaduud, South Mudug and East Hiiraan and keep these regions Al Shabab-free. Somali governments just piggybacked on their success and then weakened/destroyed them.

Reality is, take away foreign forces then somali government will collapse, and ASWJ will rise again keeping central somalia free from Al shabab! Very low iq to give useless HAG clan militias tens of millions of dollars in weaponry, instead of ASWJ.

Don’t act like you aren’t an Al shabab supporter, u literally want to ban women education.

View attachment 335143

Taliban have the same aqeeda as ASWJ and they're also anti Salafiya

 

[Internet Nomad]

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Neo-Sufi all the way baby!

 

[mudugnapalm]

When Al Shabab were at the height of their strength, ASWJ alone was able to defeat them in Galgaduud, South Mudug and East Hiiraan and keep these regions Al Shabab-free. Somali governments just piggybacked on their success and then weakened/destroyed them.

Reality is, take away foreign forces then somali government will collapse, and ASWJ will rise again keeping central somalia free from Al shabab! Very low iq to give useless HAG clan militias tens of millions of dollars in weaponry, instead of ASWJ.

Don’t act like you aren’t an Al shabab supporter, u literally want to ban women education.

View attachment 335143

So I come to you with facts and your only response is "uhhh..uhhh.. YOU'RE AN AS SUPPORTER!!!" literally proving my point right

Why is it that everyone who calls out these blatant issues is attacked and called an AS sympathizer?

Now please enlighten us on ASWJ'S capabilities to tackle AS militarily and intelligence-wise, their ideological reach in a quickly transforming Somalia where sufis are slowly dying out and being replaced by salafis, their ability to govern a population outside of guriceel, and where they will get non-sufi, non-HG soldiers to fill the power vaccuum "after foreign forces leave".

 

[Dhiirane]

Only certain parts of central Somalia is where they had influence though but they also can't be governed or have certain intentions, seemed like people got tired of them . The Al kebab thing is a project ,some people got rich of it just look at the PSF group has been doing igu sawir for the past 15 years just to get western funding but they dont do nothing.

 

[AlteKartel]

No different to arming macawiisleey and tribal militias which was a terrible mistake. Even if you armed ASWJ and they somehow defeated AS what is to stop them from turning on the gov or other tribes near them? Only way to defeat AS is through the government and to improve the lives of the people you’ve liberated. This gov has no interest in securing military victory over the khawaarij because they want to keep western aid flowing for as long as possible and they will never win the hearts and souls of many people in the country as long as tribes feel that they’re being unfairly wronged by the government and that AS is a better alternative.

 

[World]

So I come to you with facts and your only response is "uhhh..uhhh.. YOU'RE AN AS SUPPORTER!!!" literally proving my point right

Now please enlighten us on ASWJ'S capabilities to tackle AS militarily and intelligence-wise, their ideological reach in a quickly transforming Somalia where sufis are slowly dying out and being replaced by salafis, their ability to govern a population outside of guriceel, and where they will get non-sufi, non-HG soldiers to fill the power vaccuum "after foreign forces leave".

Why are you acting like you’re not an al shabab when you supporting naming women education for “shariah reasons”.

Why don’t you live in Jilib and move there instead of the west? That way you can get drone striked.

 

[World]

Taliban have the same aqeeda as ASWJ and they're also anti Salafiya

But Taliban are following their Pashtun culture.

This guy is from a western country.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@World In order to defeat Alshabab, you need to foster a sense of ownership among the citizens of koonfur. People need to feel that their federal states and federal government are theirs and that Alshabab is a threat to their future development.

I don't think ASWJ has anything like the legitimacy that a functioning FMS can have. A functioning Galmudug or Jubaland is a better long term enemy of Alshabab than a chaotic organization like ASWJ.

The problem is that the federal government has no interest in allowing the federal states to develop the power to take on Alshabab. The FGS fears that the federal states would become too strong for it to control. The FGS, under Farmaajo and HSM, does not want Galmudug & Jubaland to become as strong as Puntland. It would mean the entrenchment of federalism if strong FMS develop.

Puntland wants a German outcome in Somalia, while all centralists want an Italian outcome.
They forget that you can't have an Italian outcome if the FGS is itself weak.
https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dziblatt/files/worldpolitics1.pdf

 

[AbdiFreedom]

No one can beat Al Shabab. The moment all foreign intervention exits Somalia, Al Shabab will take over the entire country, as far east as Puntland to as far west as Awdal. Al Shabab has a value system while others have no vision or any political strategy. They dont even belong to any established groups or political parties and are only in the scene to fill their bellies. Somalia from all corners is also a very destabilized country and even limited opposition can make it turn. The only thing that may help is a sophisticated online anti Al Shabab propaganda campaign for the next few years. The window is closing though and must happen pretty much now. I think it can work because Somalis are susceptible to being brainwashed and can be influenced. We see that in the west today. Otherwise, you should prepare yourself for Al Shabab rule. Las Anod will not be safe. Al Shabab is the strongest political entity in all Somali lands today

 

[mudugnapalm]

Why are you acting like you’re not an al shabab when you supporting naming women education for “shariah reasons”.

Why don’t you live in Jilib and move there instead of the west? That way you can get drone striked.

You still haven't responded to me and you're instead getting emotional using unrelated post history to personally attack me and wishing death upon me for being unable to respond to simple questions, yet again proving my point. Taliban /=/ Al Shabaab and believe it or not, AS has tons of women only schools completely invalidating your argument. I never once praised AS, you simply got insecure when I talked about their capabilities from a purely analytical basis compared to ASWJ, proving that you're not about finding solutions to the problems facing our country, instead resorting to attacks and intimidation if your opinion and narrow view of the world is challenged.