5 reasons why Abyi's/Ethiopia's attempt to reach the red sea will end up in failure and will be political/economic sabotage

[Idilinaa]

1- Egypt will strongly reject, simply because Ethiopia presence in the Red Sea will touch Cairo national security

2- Eritrea too will not allow as it see Ethiopia as a threat to it’s sovereignty and national security and any attempt to have Ethiopia boots on the Red Sea water will boost it’s distress

3- Djibouti GDP and domestic revenue significantly relays on EThiopia usage of its port infrastructure as it has heavily invested on that and any Addis aim to get red sea will not be welcomed and that will be national security threat.

4- UAE whom we understand support Abiy economically will also reject his dream unless they are part of that destructive agenda, since it has invested on Berbera purely for Ethiopia market and any attempt to derail their outlay will not work

5- Houthis will confront Ethiopia as it could sense Israel presence in the event Abiy manage to acquire sea. It will also encourage Houthis to support and provide missiles to the arm groups like Al-Shabab, ISIS, and any other nationalist movements to fight off Addis’s attempt to access the Red Sea.

 

[Idilinaa]

I see Somalis all over foaming at the mouth, talking about HSM and Erdogan/Turkey colluding with Ethiopia.

Neither of them can actually do much to aid it to bring it about, because it doesn't just go against the wishes of Somalis but also 4 other regional actors.

All Abyi Ahmed is doing in reality is aid in his destruction. Because Ethiopia cannot fight a multi front war and the same time fighting a civil war and they don't have the economic or military funds do it. The Tigray war crippled their economy and military.

So he is peddling empty threats and unrealistic ambitions. Yall can't see that.

 

[Midas]

I see Somalis all over foaming at the mouth, talking about HSM and Erdogan/Turkey colluding with Ethiopia.

Neither of them can actually do much to aid it to bring it about, because it doesn't just go against the wishes of Somalis but also 4 other regional actors.

All Abyi Ahmed is doing in reality is aid in his destruction. Because Ethiopia cannot fight a multi front war and the same time fighting a civil war and they don't have the economic or military funds do it. The Tigray war crippled their economy and military.

So he is peddling empty threats and unrealistic ambitions. Yall can't see that.

One of the reasons im not too worriews abkut the 2 biggest potenial crisies of thiopia getting sea acess and somaliland getting recognition. Is that it's not dependent on our incompetent government. But strong regional actors who have stopping these crisis from happening as one of the largest priorities on their agenda because it harms their self-interest .

 

[Idilinaa]

One of the reasons im not too worriews abkut the 2 biggest potenial crisies of thiopia getting sea acess and somaliland getting recognition. Is that it's not dependent on our incompetent government. But strong regional actors who have stopping these crisis from happening as one of the largest priorities on their agenda because it harms their self-interest .

To me it's all a distraction.

What people should be focused on is the 2026 election and building the circumstances for a political transformation, it will be great opportunity for us to rid ourselves of the incompetent government

PROSPECTS FOR SOMALIA’S TRANSITION FROM CLAN-BASED POLITICS TO MULTIPARTYISM IN THE 2026 ELECTION – Rift Valley Institute

riftvalley.net

This coming year they will hold local elections.

Somalia initiates government move toward direct elections

‘Job starts now and it is the responsibility of the current regime to fulfill their promises to ensure that the next election will be direct,’ political analyst tells Anadolu - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[Mutombo]

The big boys (EU/US/NATO/GCC) want the Red Sea to open back up. Its is a simple matter for them, you cannot have a crucial oil choke point in the hands of the houthis. The Houthis have shut down two oil choke points-Bab el Mandeb and curtailed the Suez Canal/ Sumed pipeline. A third oil transit chock point, the strait of Hormuz is controlled by a BRICS nation member Iran. Not having control of oil transit routes equals a death sentence for a nation, and I believe the Europeans are affected the most right now. This is why I also believe Ethiopia is being propped up by them so they can do the dirty work of US/EU/NATO.

 

[Idilinaa]

The big boys (EU/US/NATO/GCC) want the Red Sea to open back up. Its is a simple matter for them, you cannot have a crucial oil choke point in the hands of the houthis. The Houthis have shut down two oil choke points-Bab el Mandeb and curtailed the Suez Canal/ Sumed pipeline. A third oil transit chock point, the strait of Hormuz is controlled by a BRICS nation member Iran. Not having control of oil transit routes equals a death sentence for a nation, and I believe the Europeans are affected the most right now. This is why I also believe Ethiopia is being propped up by them so they can do the dirty work of US/EU/NATO.


View attachment 351214

You are right, this is part of the reason why France is backing Ethiopia and helping it build a navy.

 

[Mutombo]

I see Somalis all over foaming at the mouth, talking about HSM and Erdogan/Turkey colluding with Ethiopia.

Neither of them can actually do much to aid it to bring it about, because it doesn't just go against the wishes of Somalis but also 4 other regional actors.

All Abyi Ahmed is doing in reality is aid in his destruction. Because Ethiopia cannot fight a multi front war and the same time fighting a civil war and they don't have the economic or military funds do it. The Tigray war crippled their economy and military.

So he is peddling empty threats and unrealistic ambitions. Yall can't see that.

You are right, this is part of the reason why France is backing Ethiopia and helping it build a navy.

Check this article out. . https://apnews.com/article/mideast-wars-yemen-us-navy-pilots-houthi-95a792daae3b0120186bfc6c66e1b6fe

People that can put can two and two together can tell this aircraft was shot down by the Houthis. The aircraft was shot down last week btw

 

[Hilmaam]

Egypt threatened GERD dam for years and now its completed and virtually indestructible with weapons they have.Egypt is all talk no action since 2011. Dam was built and their lifeline nile river is controlled by ethiopia this is real threat to them not some port in red sea to broke african country who will never be naval power. red sea is full of world powers like china america and france all who have bases in djibouti. Only country can prevent ethiopia port is somalia in my opinoin everything else wishful thinking nobody coming to save somalia

 

[Zak12]

Egypt threatened GERD dam for years and now its completed and virtually indestructible with weapons they have.Egypt is all talk no action since 2011. Dam was built and their lifeline nile river is controlled by ethiopia this is real threat to them not some port in red sea to broke african country who will never be naval power. red sea is full of world powers like china america and france all who have bases in djibouti. Only country can prevent ethiopia port is somalia in my opinoin everything else wishful thinking nobody coming to save somalia

View attachment 351227

Egypt never had a problem with Ethiopia building a dam, they were only concerned with the speed at which it was being filled since it could impact the water amount in the Nile. IIRC, they wanted it to be filled in 8-9 years while Ethiopia wanted it done in a much shorter time.

That said, its no longer an issue and the flood seasons in those years for Egypt was particularly wet so they didnt see any major flow reduction.

 

[Hilmaam]

Egypt never had a problem with Ethiopia building a dam, they were only concerned with the speed at which it was being filled since it could impact the water amount in the Nile. IIRC, they wanted it to be filled in 8-9 years while Ethiopia wanted it done in a much shorter time.

That said, its no longer an issue and the flood seasons in those years for Egypt was particularly wet so they didnt see any major flow reduction.

Water is not consistent bro . Can be 5 year drought never know. In this scenario now Ethiopia can hog remaining water for themselves Egypt is at another country mercy nobody wants this. Egypt can also afford any interruption on flow there country barren desert and relies on Nile for silt and water

 

[Zak12]

Water is not consistent bro . Can be 5 year drought never know. In this scenario now Ethiopia can hog remaining water for themselves Egypt is at another country mercy nobody wants this. Egypt can also afford any interruption on flow there country barren desert and relies on Nile for silt and water

It would be illegal for Ethiopia to tamper with the Nile in a way that negatively impacts Egypt. Egypt and Ethiopia aren't the only countries that share rivers, water laws exist for a reason.

Anyways, Egypt is the main and closest African ally to America and Israel, gaajo irrelevant Ethiopia can't touch them.

 

[Hilmaam]

It would be illegal for Ethiopia to tamper with the Nile in a way that negatively impacts Egypt. Egypt and Ethiopia aren't the only countries that share rivers, water laws exist for a reason.

Anyways, Egypt is the main and closest African ally to America and Israel, gaajo irrelevant Ethiopia can't touch them.

They don’t have water sharing agreement so can’t be illegal. The old colonial agreement was voided by Ethiopia when they built dam which prohibited dam and gave all the water to Egypt’s

 

[Zak12]

They don’t have water sharing agreement so can’t be illegal. The old colonial agreement was voided by Ethiopia when they built dam which prohibited dam and gave all the water to Egypt’s

In International law, they can't do anything too distuptive. It would fall under "significant harm" in article 7.

Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses - Main Page

United Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law

legal.un.org

 

[Hilmaam]

In International law, they can't do anything too distuptive. It would fall under "significant harm" in article 7.

Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses - Main Page

United Nations Audiovisual Library of International Law

legal.un.org

This boils down to Ethiopia controls Egypt water. they can do as they please. They did it when building dam and same when fillling it . There is also no water agreement so Ethiopia and Egypt when drough strikes don’t have release agreement. Egypt scared shitless about dam and not being in control of biggest resource deal or no deal. They at mercy of Ethiopia how can u not be worried lol

 

[The Oponian Guild]

To me it's all a distraction.

What people should be focused on is the 2026 election and building the circumstances for a political transformation, it will be great opportunity for us to rid ourselves of the incompetent government

PROSPECTS FOR SOMALIA’S TRANSITION FROM CLAN-BASED POLITICS TO MULTIPARTYISM IN THE 2026 ELECTION – Rift Valley Institute

riftvalley.net

This coming year they will hold local elections.

Somalia initiates government move toward direct elections

‘Job starts now and it is the responsibility of the current regime to fulfill their promises to ensure that the next election will be direct,’ political analyst tells Anadolu - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

Where? Xalane? Aden Adde?

 

[Zak12]

There is also no water agreement

Then one will be made if they feel that threatened. Uncle Sam isn't going to allow Ethiopia to do anything drastic lol.

 

[Hilmaam]

Then one will be made if they feel that threatened. Uncle Sam isn't going to allow Ethiopia to do anything drastic lol.

I agree with that America controls both . Eventually will come to deal and Somalia will be left in the cold

 

[Zak12]

I agree with that America controls both . Eventually will come to deal and Somalia will be left in the cold

Egypt is vastly richer, more powerful and significantly more influential on the global stage than Ethiopia. They don't have much to worry about.

If anything, we should be more concerned with the Juba and Shabelle rivers as both sources are in Ethiopia. They already dammed up both rivers.