A Rational Solution to SL?

[Helios]

The funny thing is that the Warsangeli and Dhulbahante are actually growing faster than the Isaaq in Somaliland. They remain more rural and have higher fertility. The demographic predominance of the Isaaq is being eroded by about 1% per year. In 2005 Warsangeli and Dhulbahante were about 1/4 the size of Isaaq and by 2014 they were about 1/3 of Isaaq.

If the Isaaq continue to urbanize in Hargeisa and Burco, already 66% of all Isaaq live in one of these two districts, and the Harti population continues to grow, the Isaaq may lose their majority in former British Somaliland. If the Isaaq fall from their 60% today to under 50%, Somaliland as a political project becomes nonviable.

Kkkkk

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No one is worried about some hidden Harti population boom in wastelands especially when your coveted 2014 census already overestimated sparse districts

isaaqs would never let maakhir,cyan or khatumo do their own self-determination. If every country listens to its minorities then we will have more then 500+ small countries around the globe.

We Hawiyes don't broader isaaqs so we care less. But SL is the new eritrea in the making. The cuqded ridden id**rs cant differentiate between Darod/MJ and the rest of Somalia.
I don't mind them cosplaying as sovereignty state for now. The min the south gets back on its feet they will either cut a deal or suffer the Western Sahara treatment.

f*ck off H.utu this thread doesn't concern you, take your insults somewhere else

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I look at the number and you still making wild assumptions of thinking that Isaaq are less then 70% of the population and Also majority of these clans are happy to be part of Somaliland and support the independence. I say that I see the facts o ground and they are all waving the flag.

The last time Isaaq was above 70% was in the 1980s before MSB began his campaign. Isaaq were 67% in 2005, 60% in 2014 and are now 55% if you extend the 2005-2014 trend line to 2020. Urbanization is not good for fertility.

The Gadabursi lack sufficient land for further population growth. Most of Awdal is desert. Their growth is coming mostly from Ethiopian rural Gadabursi urbanizing in Borama.

The Harti have 2/3 of the land Isaaq have and much lower population density. They could double or triple their population without reaching the limits of their land’s grazing capacity.

The secession project looks less and less tenable as the years roll by. There is still a chance but the window is fast closing. Probably an 8 year window left.

@Helios thank you for proving my point that Harti remain nomadic and have not urbanized.

 

[repo]

SSC serves no value for Puntland except 1) stopping Somaliland's secession 2) possible oil and gas deposits 3) a tool to use against Puntland. I've always believed it is inevitable that the FGS will take control of those regions in a post-war Somalia if Somaliland refuses reintegration.

Awdal is a completely different situation given its geography, unless they actively fought the majority Isaaq it's impossible to stay part of Somalia. Somaliland also keeps all periphery regions dependent on Berbera and makes sure all business comes through there so Awdal has no chance to become economically independent.

 

[Dharbash]

Spoiler

Complete and utter rubbish, worry about gadabursi and jiidwaaq who are slowly encroaching on your lands and sandwiching you.

 

[Helios]

Complete and utter rubbish, worry about gadabursi and jiidwaaq who are slowly encroaching on your lands and sandwiching you.

Haye Mr Dblock 1 mil are they both moving one farm at a time? Someone got butt hurt seeing how empty his districts are

There's no geeljires where our tripoint border is in Fafan Zone. The Dir/Isaaq border in the western waaqooyi galbeed is again farmlands. I'd assume you would know that considering you randomly mentioned the handful of your people in Gabiley.

Should've downplayed us in Hargeisa/Berbera if you wanted to throw a better diss instead of mentioning one of the most stable borders in the north.

 

[Dharbash]

Haye Mr Dblock 1 mil are they both moving one farm at a time? Someone got butt hurt seeing how empty his districts are

There's no geeljires where our tripoint border is in Fafan Zone. The Dir/Isaaq border in the western waaqooyi galbeed is again farmlands. I'd assume you would know that considering you randomly mentioned the handful of your people in Gabiley.

Should've downplayed us in Hargeisa/Berbera if you wanted to throw a better diss instead of mentioning one of the most stable borders in the north.

We’re much more than a million but stay guessing

 

[Teflon]

We’re much more than a million but stay guessing

Okay buddy

 

[Hayfever]

Geopolitics isn't my forte so I won't be chiming in.
I sparingly discuss two things on SSPot 1) FKD and 2) Tribal History.

But you’ll delete my post calling samaroon langaab?

 

[Sophisticate]

But you’ll delete my post calling samaroon langaab?

Certainly, it makes you 1) demographically ignorant 2) I might be forced to add you to my empty ignore list.

 

[Sophisticate]

It really ain’t that deep, either refute me or ignore my statement but deleting it on the sly is weak... the type of tactic a langaab would employ

I'll do all of the above and courteously respond simply because I can. Bye for now.

 

[Libaax-Joore]

We’re much more than a million but stay guessing

Are u sure? according to this barely 400k

 

[Cabdi]

I support Somalilands independence, I'm more wadani than most Isaaqs here

 

[Cigaal Timacadde]

There is no rational solution to the Somaliland question, imo. Either Somaliland is recognised as an independent state or Somalia brings it back into the union by force. Those are the only realistic options I think.

 

[Farjano-Walad]

The funny thing is that the Warsangeli and Dhulbahante are actually growing faster than the Isaaq in Somaliland. They remain more rural and have higher fertility. The demographic predominance of the Isaaq is being eroded by about 1% per year. In 2005 Warsangeli and Dhulbahante were about 1/4 the size of Isaaq and by 2014 they were about 1/3 of Isaaq.

If the Isaaq continue to urbanize in Hargeisa and Burco, already 66% of all Isaaq live in one of these two districts, and the Harti population continues to grow, the Isaaq may lose their majority in former British Somaliland. If the Isaaq fall from their 60% today to under 50%, Somaliland as a political project becomes nonviable.

well in that case let darood give warsengali and dhulbahante many wives, i suggest we give them 4 wives each man so he multiple, population is power and voting block so in another 30 years they can take over the entire so called somaliland

 

[Farjano-Walad]

The funny thing is that the Warsangeli and Dhulbahante are actually growing faster than the Isaaq in Somaliland. They remain more rural and have higher fertility. The demographic predominance of the Isaaq is being eroded by about 1% per year. In 2005 Warsangeli and Dhulbahante were about 1/4 the size of Isaaq and by 2014 they were about 1/3 of Isaaq.

If the Isaaq continue to urbanize in Hargeisa and Burco, already 66% of all Isaaq live in one of these two districts, and the Harti population continues to grow, the Isaaq may lose their majority in former British Somaliland. If the Isaaq fall from their 60% today to under 50%, Somaliland as a political project becomes nonviable.

This is what somalsi fail to understand bro, population is truly power no matter what, langabs can never rule,

the seevral aggretaed dir and isaaq partiesd were at each others throat and could not unite let alone agree how to rule the capital and share the organs of the state and ONLF took advantage of this by uniting all 3 Ogaden parties as one and gave them one mission: take back power through Parliament Mps votes and dictate to the president through the Constitution if zinawi can appoint his own dog

example, zinawi and co supported every Dir/isaaq and all the lanagbs like shekhaal in DDS in the 90s against ONLF and Ogaden

in the end, all the dir and i-door support for cabdulmajid could not help him in power to the point Dir controlled somali party had to elect khadar macalin, an ONLF party member as president because ONLF won 87.6% of the votes and thus controlled almost 90% of Parliament MPs, in the end the entire Dir/isaaq langab supported groups and all the money in the world could not take out Ogaden

Ogaden had 3 parties, they simply aggregated all 3 parties, the other two joined ONLF and worked together as one - little did Dir and isaaq and habashi relise that ONLF controlled DDS from 1990 till 1995 precisely because they won 85% in 1990 and ironically their votes increased by 2.6%

all the isaaq from somaliland and dir from God knows where could not do shyt as the 3 Ogaden parties united and got out the Ogadens from deep inside the country side and made voting ID cards for them because the knew they had massively untapped population power straddled through out the hinterland of Ogaden as Ogaden camel milk is sold by OG traders all the way to nazareth - all the fake sharci they gave to dir and isaaq from somaliland and djibouti could not help them kkkkkkkkk

Ogaden went to an old Maalingure (reer cabdulle sub clan) 80 year man who was the defence minister for haile selasi in the 60s and asked him for advise, he said to Ogaden why are you in 3 party split, unite as one and get the massive population of reer miiyi OG from deep inside the interior

cabdul majiod tried everything, i dont know if yall are aware but his Dir/isaaq party even got rid of 13 Ogaden counties/degmos just to make sure Ogaden loses the election, he wanted to wage war and poke Ogaden to start a war against him and the habashi so he can have an excuse,

when Ogaden crushed them in the elections, since it was one man one vote in the regional elections, Ogaden demanded from zinawi to get rid of cabdulmajid if he wanted peace with Ogaden,

cabdulmjaid was called to the private residence of zinawi in 2000 and was told warya you made me start a war with Ogaden, you pissed them off by encourage me to cut of 13 counties,

the langab was shot outside zinawi's house and zinaw added in the constitution due to Ogaden demands that only an Ogaden can become president of DDS

immediately ONLF restored the original 52 counties they created in 1990 and added in the constitution of DDS that only an Ogaden can become president after they showed how much influence and population power they had in the region

so yes, population is key, no matter what, its why Tigra were kicked out in a matter of days, despite Tigra controlling 995 of the officer corp they did not have enough people in the soldier rank and the country over all

zinaw was so impressed with the Ogaden political coup he remarked DDS is Ogaden owned and lead

no matter what population power matters end of the day, i hope harti over populate somaliland in the coming 30 years and take back what is rightfully theirs,

an independent i-door state is extremely dangerous to Ogadeniya no matter what anyone says, what if they bring/allow a foreign military base? its a danger to Harti as well as to Absame, i-door has 300 years of cuqdad for Kablalax,

 

[Farjano-Walad]

isaaqs would never let maakhir,cyan or khatumo do their own self-determination. If every country listens to its minorities then we will have more then 500+ small countries around the globe.

We Hawiyes don't broader isaaqs so we care less. But SL is the new eritrea in the making. The cuqded ridden id**rs cant differentiate between Darod/MJ and the rest of Somalia.
I don't mind them cosplaying as sovereignty state for now. The min the south gets back on its feet they will either cut a deal or suffer the Western Sahara treatment.

as if isaaq has a choice, once Harti is united and they sort out they issues, Harti can karbash i-door and have done so for centuries warya,

all it takes is for the bribes somaliland pays to them to stop and they can do 180 over night,

and hawiye uniting is like jews and Palestinians uniting, it will not happen, they do not have that cultural traits and hawiye has never done anything for somalinimo for centuries they were sleeping and have not left their tiny little land, they never Fought invaders and white colonisers,

hawiye is his own worst enemy,

 

[Dharbash]

well in that case let darood give warsengali and dhulbahante many wives, i suggest we give them 4 wives each man so he multiple, population is power and voting block so in another 30 years they can take over the entire so called somaliland

Dhulbahante culture already actively promotes polygamy. I was surprised to find dblock men having many many wives and a lot of sons and daughters when I traveled back home. I’ve even seen a video on YouTube that one of my cousins sent to me on WhatsApp of a reer Hagar man having 37 wives in the span of his long life, bismillahi rahmaani raheem, yaab.

 

[Yonis]

The last time Isaaq was above 70% was in the 1980s before MSB began his campaign. Isaaq were 67% in 2005, 60% in 2014 and are now 55% if you extend the 2005-2014 trend line to 2020. Urbanization is not good for fertility.

The Gadabursi lack sufficient land for further population growth. Most of Awdal is desert. Their growth is coming mostly from Ethiopian rural Gadabursi urbanizing in Borama.

The Harti have 2/3 of the land Isaaq have and much lower population density. They could double or triple their population without reaching the limits of their land’s grazing capacity.

The secession project looks less and less tenable as the years roll by. There is still a chance but the window is fast closing. Probably an 8 year window left.

@Helios thank you for proving my point that Harti remain nomadic and have not urbanized.

Very Interesting.

That means Puntland could expand naturally into SSC in the future without much force as more Hartis (fuelled by their population boom) will be absorbed into Puntland

I'm actually optimistic about the future of PL now

May reer SSC have many children inshallah

 

[Dharbash]

Very Interesting.

That means Puntland could expand naturally into SSC in the future without much force as more Hartis (fuelled by their population boom) will be absorbed into Puntland

I'm actually optimistic about the future of PL now

May reer SSC have many children inshallah

How would Puntland absorb the dblocks in SSC? Elaborate on this. Most Harti have also given up on Puntland long long ago so I’m confused, that ship sailed a long time ago.

 

[Yonis]

How would Puntland absorb the dblocks in SSC? Elaborate on this. Most Harti have also given up on Puntland long long ago so I’m confused, that ship sailed a long time ago.

I strongly disagree.

1. Warsangelis

Puntland has the support of the entire Warsangeli clan (except for 1 subclan) on our side. This is true even after parliment speaker incident last year and we control most of their land and towns from Dhahar to Badhan and more

2. Dhulbahante

Even after the baharsame vs cumar mahamoud beef, the Jamac Siyaad under SL payroll, We still enjoy a unusually high level of recruitment for Dhulbahante mostly from the ugadhyahaan. Naleeye and Nur axmed tribes in particular. (Taleex was also part of the recent Puntland examinations),

If you extrapolate this current support into the future, you're looking at a rebirth of Hartis, I see potentially 100,000s of new Puntlanders from this region into the future.

But thats my opinion looking at the data.