In a post-AMISOM world, Al Shabab would face the same challenges the FGS is facing today. Somalia’s landmass is nearly twice the size of Germany’s, making it impossible to control with only 7,000 to 12,000 troops. Also, they lack overwhelming numbers compared to clan militias. SSC had around 7,000 to 8,000 troops in the Las Anod conflict. Other clans would be able to field even larger numbers, for comparison the Taliban had 75,000 members when it took over. How could Al Shabab possibly conquer all of southern Somalia, hold Mogadishu, and attempt to seize Puntland?
Al Shabab: Not a Legitimate Threat to All of Somalia
- Thread starter Marsh
- Start date
Bari
Garabsare
Weird arguement, they had way more soldiers when the south was theirs in the late 2000s, if Xamar falls they'll get huge tax revenue and they'll get recruits. Even if peoples views dont align with AS they'll join purely based upon the financial incentives. Wadankeenu baahi baa ka jidha and AS are likely to captilise on that to get further soldiers and attempt further conquests. Things happen in stages, it starts slow and then starts to snowball.
Yes, they either recruit poor people or they will indoctrinate youths and in matter of 10-15 years they will have tens of thousands of sympathizers willing to join their cause.
This is genuine not true. There is the possibility of governing the whole country, but it is through strict laws and iron fist. There is a reason the ICU managed to rule all of southern Somalia before its fall. If it weren't for the American overthrow, the ICU would likely control most of the country.
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AS will not rule anywhere north of Guriceel and west Galkayo in GM. There are territories where they will always be AS free, namely eastern Galgaduud and North Mudug as well as all of PL, SL, SSC. Maybe the areas around Kismayo and Af Madow and the Daawa region in Gedo and perhaps Baydhabo and it's environs however the rest of SWS would most likely fall in the event of a massive AS counter offensive
Nobody is scared of AS themselves it’s the weapons/intel that will be in their hands if they take over xamar that is the issue.
It’s not enough to take over the entire country but they’ll sweep through the whole of the south in less than a month. Nobody else stands a chance without foreign intervention
It’s not enough to take over the entire country but they’ll sweep through the whole of the south in less than a month. Nobody else stands a chance without foreign intervention
The north will be conquered aswell. If US doesn’t intervene. Some of you think PL is safe. But it will be matter of when. If South gets conquered first. It will take time but it will happen theoritically
The answer is quite simple. Al kebab is more unified than the FGS and will keep benefiting from internal divisions within Somalia. If government soldiers and regional forces aren't motivated or fight amongst themselves Al kebab can easily exploit this and gain territory.
AS also acts like Mafia, their level of organization is pretty much better than the FGS, they collect taxes through extortion, have tons of spies all over the country including PL and SL , they infiltrate the government on all levels from local to probably even villa somalia etc etc. Somalia should never underestimate AS . Just look at countries who had more resources, better training than the FGS like Syria (big time military tradition) and Afghanistan, they capitulated within a few weeks after losing foreign support. At this moment FGS , federal states etc don't seem willing to work together for the greater good. Everyone is focused on their tuulo , if Somalia was united form PL till JL Al kebab would be finished tomorrow morning at quraac time
AS also acts like Mafia, their level of organization is pretty much better than the FGS, they collect taxes through extortion, have tons of spies all over the country including PL and SL , they infiltrate the government on all levels from local to probably even villa somalia etc etc. Somalia should never underestimate AS . Just look at countries who had more resources, better training than the FGS like Syria (big time military tradition) and Afghanistan, they capitulated within a few weeks after losing foreign support. At this moment FGS , federal states etc don't seem willing to work together for the greater good. Everyone is focused on their tuulo , if Somalia was united form PL till JL Al kebab would be finished tomorrow morning at quraac time
Bad math.
TB ≈ 80k
Afghan National Army ≈ 300K
AS ≈ 12k
SNA ≈ 30k
Nobody measures the distance between the SNA and the Afghan Army. Afghans also had advance american weapons at its disposal and funding.
PL will not be able to counter the south if its fully absorbed. Too much manpower and domestic revenue in the south. AS can afford significantly more losses then a clan admin because it can recruit anywhere it holds.
TB ≈ 80k
Afghan National Army ≈ 300K
AS ≈ 12k
SNA ≈ 30k
Nobody measures the distance between the SNA and the Afghan Army. Afghans also had advance american weapons at its disposal and funding.
PL will not be able to counter the south if its fully absorbed. Too much manpower and domestic revenue in the south. AS can afford significantly more losses then a clan admin because it can recruit anywhere it holds.
TheLand
VIP
It’s one thing to fight urban combat style in Xamar, it’s another thing for them to come out into the open like a conventional army while trying to grab land. In that even they will be struck with drones and mowed down with Apache helicopters which they don’t have the equipment to shoot down. They will be decimated.
Look, the whole argument assumes Al Shabaab would try to govern Somalia like the FGS does, which is just flat-out wrong. The government is trying to function like a centralized state, holding territory, running institutions, paying soldiers, all things that require money, loyalty, and actual control. It has none of those things. Al Shabaab doesn’t need to play by those rules. They don’t have to physically occupy every inch of land to control it. They already tax businesses inside government-held areas, they run courts that people actually trust, and they enforce their own laws whether the state likes it or not. They don’t need to win conventionally. They just need to make sure the government keeps failing, and right now, that’s exactly what’s happening.
And let’s be honest, this war isn’t about patriotism or loyalty to the FGS. It’s about money, always has been. When Trump cut aid to Somalia and scaled back support for Danab, it wasn’t just some policy shift, it was a straight-up death sentence for the only real fighting force the country had. Most of the Somali National Army? They’re in it for the paycheck. That’s just reality. When the salaries stop coming, they put down their guns and go home. Or worse, they flip sides. This isn’t a government with a strong, disciplined army, it’s a collection of men with guns who are only as loyal as their next payday.
Al Shabaab doesn’t have that problem. Their fighters don’t expect salaries. They fight for ideology, and their economy is built to sustain itself. They tax people, they smuggle, they extort, whether you live in government territory or not, you probably owe them money. They’re self-sufficient. The government, on the other hand, is like a man holding an umbrella in a storm, hoping someone else will keep it from flipping inside out. Foreign aid dries up, and suddenly, the state isn’t just weak, it’s nonexistent.
And people love bringing up numbers, like troop count is what matters. “Oh, Al Shabaab only has 7,000 to 12,000 fighters, how could they take over the whole country?” as if insurgencies work like conventional armies. They don’t need to outnumber their enemies, they just need to outlast them. The clans? They aren’t unified. They fight each other more than they fight Al Shabaab. Loyalties shift, alliances come and go, and everyone is looking out for their own interests. Al Shabaab understands that better than anyone. They’ve spent years infiltrating clans, flipping key leaders, eliminating threats before they even become threats. The Taliban didn’t win in Afghanistan because they had overwhelming numbers. They won because the Afghan government collapsed from the inside. And Somalia is heading down that exact same road.
I realized it firsthand in 2021, out in the outskirts of Kismayo, at a waterhole called Dhibaayo. It was one of those brutally hot mornings, the kind that makes you feel like your skin is sizzling under the sun. I was with my cousins, taking the camels to drink. Hundreds of camels, different Sumads , mostly Majeerteen and Coormale, with a sprinkle of OG. But something felt off, it wasn’t the way I remembered it. The way the camels came in, first come, first served, no yelling, no chaos, it was too quiet. Too orderly. That’s not how it usually went.
I asked my cousin if I was tripping. He just gave me a look and said, “Al Shabaab’s been here for months.” I didn’t get it at first. It used to be, people fighting over water, someone getting stabbed, someone getting shot, a girl getting trampled in the chaos. But not anymore. They put a stop to it. No one dared step out of line.
And that’s when it hit me. It was over. The independent states, the FGS, none of them really had jurisdiction. They could send out press releases, they could hold conferences in Nairobi, but out there, where the real country exists, they had no control. And I knew, deep down, if Al Shabaab could impose order at a simple waterhole, if they could do something the Somali government had never been able to do, then what else had they already won?
That’s why they’ll take over. Not because they have the biggest army, not because they need to march into Mogadishu waving a black flag, but because they’re already governing where it actually matters. They don’t need to take the country. The country is already theirs.
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