America Won’t Survive Trump’s Second Term—Here's Why

[Idilinaa]

@The truth seeker watch this , it sums up basically everything i said. You wont hold onto your faith in America's future after this

Yall can read the discussion we had in this thread for context : China is the Future and America is a collapsing Empire

China furious over Panama deal

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/how-a-renowned-hong-kong-tycoon-ended-up-on-beijings-bad-side-over-panama-canal-deal-4bc947b5 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/business/trump-panama-canal-china-hong-kong.html...

www.somalispot.com

 

[Idilinaa]

The unsustainability of the U.S. economic system mirrors the economic fragility of the Gulf Arab nations. America is undergoing rapid deindustrialization, outsourcing its manufacturing base, accumulating massive debt, and relying on foreign labor for nearly one-third of its workforce (70% of farmworkers, 27% of physicians and 16% of registered nurses, 25% of construction workers, Stem H1B foreign expertise, and large parts of the service & hospitality sector). These factors signal a weakening foundation, much like the Gulf states' dependence on oil wealth and external expertise.

You can check that out discussion:

Is she right about Dubai?

https://archive.ph/CLJbt

www.somalispot.com

@Shimbiris @NidarNidar @Hurder @NordicSomali @Taintedlove

The Gulf Economies (UAE, Kuwait, Qatar , Saudi etc) are doomed in the long run.

Oil is running out and at the same time fossil fuel is becoming less in demand.

The attempts diversify is not even working, they try to move away from it by building tourism, finance, and tech sectors but all rely on foreign labor and expertise.

Most of their "new industries" are still funded by oil money, meaning they are not self-sustaining.

They lack local human capital, most citizens are not involved in economic productivity.

You cannot "diversify" an economy that is 80% dependent on foreign workers. Local Gulf citizens lack the work ethic, technical skills, and industrial base to sustain these economies without oil.

Their extreme dependence on foreign labour & capital is their achilees heel. The Gulf economies rely almost entirely on migrant labor from construction to service industries.

For example 90% of Dubai’s workforce is foreign, what this means is that if the expats leave, the economy collapses.

Investors are already pulling out due to political instability, corruption, and declining oil revenues. Once oil revenues drop, these economies will no longer be attractive to investors or expats.

They also are losing influence and are weak innovators. Gulf nations have little technological innovation, they mostly import expertise from the West and Asia. China and India are developing their own energy independence, meaning they will not rely on Gulf oil forever. Western countries are diversifying their energy sources, weakening the Gulf’s geopolitical leverage.

They drive massive government spending into unrealistic mega projects , that don't create real economic growth. End up in-debt. Kuwait and Bahrain for example are struggling with rising debt.
Dubai and other Gulf cities are built on real estate bubbles, not sustainable industries.

Unlike countries like Japan, Singapore, or Norway, they did not build strong local industries.

I am also pretty sure they bit their own tail by entangling themselves into regional geo-politicial conflicts and threats, by playing manipulators and infighting. So it will all just converge into them once they don't have the wealth and influence defend against it.

Also Internal dissatisfaction will rise, since the native citizens are used to easy wealth but are now being forced to work harder. The elite ruling families will not survive and economic hardship will spread, they will all fall like domino.

Both cases point to major global shifts. America’s imminent decline signals a restructuring of the world’s financial power, while the Gulf nations face an inevitable downturn in oil production, accelerating the transition toward greener alternatives. These shifts are reshaping global economic dynamics, potentially leading to a new balance of power in the coming decades.

 

[Idilinaa]

Another thing i also find funny , they've been the ones pushing the story of China's imminent collapse for decades. For 40 years straight they been publishing media news stories, books etc predicting it's economic collapse in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years etc and it never happen . You even see it today in youtube titles. Alongside the BS narrative of a "China Threat".

The Fallacy of the “China Collapse” and “China Threat” Theories

All the Western dire predictions for the Chinese economy have come to naught so far. Since the 1990s, there have been voices prophesying the doom of China’s economy and every five to 10 years, all kinds of “China collapse” theories resurface,...

link.springer.com

The only constant about the Chinese economy is its adaptability. If you are adaptable, not bound by rigid economic theories, then it’s impossible to predict failure.

Rather than a threat China is more a friend to the rest of the world because it approaches them through diplomacy and trade. It can even be a financial stabilizer for the world and provide growth. Unlike the US, they don't force you to follow their ways or invade your country or economically weaken a country through sanctions etc. That study goes deeper into it the fallacy.

 

[The truth seeker]

The only people who have been pushing “Chinese collapse ”are fake Finance gurus on the internet and so called “experts ”who lost all credibility after the financial crisis under Hu Jinato and jiang zemin China was growing at 14% and industrialized in the span of only 15 years and built the worlds largest high speed rail network from scratch

Currently xi has been struggling to get to 5% is facing a housing bubble and rampant youth unemployment there GDP won’t surpass the US anytime soon unlike what people were saying in the 2010s

What de industrialization are you talking about ? decline in manufacturing happens in the 70s and is slowly being brought back to life Biden has been the most pro manufacturing and pro union president in modern history

H1B visas and TN visas are how the US gets educated immigrants a system that’s been in place for years and years unlike gulf countries there is no native ethnicity and the “labour shortages ”are really a shortage of cheap labor they said the same thing when Florida tightened its immigration the Us is still the largest expert they can easily be replaced with legal migrants do you really what to be the next Canada

Gonna need you to provide more reasoning for why the us economy which compared to other major economies isn’t very globalized id “unsustainable ”or is not “adaptive ”

 

[angelplan]

America is declining empire no doubt about that but there will never ever be a godless on the throne of earth like China. Say what you want about the west and they in decline no doubt about it but still they are believers in One single creator. The jews and christians despite their shortcomings held the throne for all believers. We should be thankful for that. Earth will have been in much worse place with godless of the throne.

Only Islam in the name of the caliphate will replace and retake its rightfull throne. I never believe Godless China will rule earth. Its all made up boogeyman scary tactics the west fools you with. But the good thing about China is China is never imperialistic they tend to focus on their own and give you benefit win win situation when they deal with foreigners.

Look how China is winning hearts and minds in africa and building much needed infrastructure like railways, highways, ports, airports, hospitals...etc. While US, EU and the west only interested in military bases that only benefit them. So yes America as declining empire is losing its soft power and retracting USAID. While China is gaining in soft power.

America is the evil empire muslim will fight to replace it. Caliphate will replace America as the ruling empire. But America will no doubt go out in a bang as they will refuse to be replaced by muslims. Future is not good for uncle sam however you look at it be it the muslims, china, russia ... or others coming for the top place.

What america should do is learn from history and not repeat the mistakes of empires before them. No empire is forever that is rule number one in history. Number two learn to become an impartial and artificial empire that adapts to situation or else you fight the waves and become irrelevant like UK once you have been outmatched in manpower and that is a disgraceful exit road to take. You rule by force of the gun you will be replaced by force of the gun. What america needs to do is show true leadership, pass the baton, save face and help show the way for the coming islamic Caliphate.

America should learn from history and become the only empire that never fought its successor and instead passed the throne in democratic manner based on their inherent human values. America has chance to lead. But faced with adversities they are already showing signs of cracks and disgrace with the way they are behaving with Trump. Empires on their last legs retracts before they explode. Trump is taking america back internally while destroying its external duties. And that my friend will explode uncle sam internally.

Shockwaves from outside will have atomic reaction to shockwaves of the internal. And big bang you go out.

 

[Idilinaa]

Came across this video of a guy explaining it in plain language.

He is right , trump assumes that people will always deal with America. He took American exceptionalism onto another level, it not longer will hold weight when you turn against your own allies. You took them for granted.

When your own allies start to move away, America will no longer be the global reserve currency and when it seizes to be that , it cannot print it's way out of debt inflation because people have lost confidence in the American currency so it is not longer strongg. So inflation will sky rocket onto unprecedented levels.

It will be brutal. Despite the wage stagnation, the higher housing, educational prices and the increasing wealth gap. One thing Americans could always count on was the cheap consumer prices, this will not longer be the case when prices sky rocket.



Trump specialty ain't nothing like engaging in a stupid trade war with your two biggest allies to align them with your competitor. This is his idea of winning btw. So much winning.

This next news will be disastrous for the American economy. I have never seen a self-sabotage so strong in my life. @The truth seeker was bragging about America being the world biggest importer. Not anymore soon enough.

America will not recover from this because your allies will have lost trust in you. They will look elsewhere for trade and stability.

The tariffs also make no sense. There is nothing wrong with a targeted tariff, like tariffing a specific company or a specific export product, to make them buy cheaper domestic goods. But this is across the board, not even targeted, all it will do is raise prices for consumers and Trump assumes this will bring back American manufacturing jobs this way. Like rich capitalist owners will decide out of their own free will build factories and industrial facilities in America and move them out of foreign countries. That's not how it works.

It wont bring back manufacturing. If you want to bring back manufacturing and industry then what you need to do is socialism. You need industrial policies lead by the state that for example take the tax money or the revenue reinvest it and/or prop up the industry you want to see thrive. That's how you do it.

 

[Idilinaa]

The average American is cooked. Through DOGE they gutted every social safety net that is meant to protect American's from abject poverty and homelessness. Everything from medicare, medicaid, social security etc the whole welfare system.

On top of that there is mass lay offs left and right in the public sector, the private sector is headed towards the same job loss soon. The stock market is crashing so they will fire even more people.

You will have no support from the government( They took your tax money and gave it to rich elites or the military, or use it to deport people , border etc) and your ability to make or earn money to support yourself will be reduced. Even if you earn you wont have enough to pay for basic stuff because of inflation and prices being increased due to tariffs.

Somalis in America need to prepare now and not count on American economic stability and build up alternative revenue streams, strengthen the informal channels that we have already and create a large community/collectively owned fund to put the money into. Don't wait for the worse comes to show.

 

[Ashraf]

The unsustainability of the U.S. economic system mirrors the economic fragility of the Gulf Arab nations. America is undergoing rapid deindustrialization, outsourcing its manufacturing base, accumulating massive debt, and relying on foreign labor for nearly one-third of its workforce (70% of farmworkers, 27% of physicians and 16% of registered nurses, 25% of construction workers, Stem H1B foreign expertise, and large parts of the service & hospitality sector). These factors signal a weakening foundation, much like the Gulf states' dependence on oil wealth and external expertise.

You can check that out discussion:

Is she right about Dubai?

https://archive.ph/CLJbt

www.somalispot.com

Both cases point to major global shifts. America’s imminent decline signals a restructuring of the world’s financial power, while the Gulf nations face an inevitable downturn in oil production, accelerating the transition toward greener alternatives. These shifts are reshaping global economic dynamics, potentially leading to a new balance of power in the coming decades.

Outsourcing your manufacturing base isn’t actually a bad thing, it’s something that happens when you transition into a high income service economy. Sectors like mining and others are just too degrading environmentally and you can outsource them as they did multiple times. The Us has a massive internal economy and doesn’t rely on foreign trade like Europe. The rise of china doesnt = the fall of America. The have the highest gdp growth in the g7 and yes while they are becoming more unequal in the long run it can be reversed if a strong democrat candidate comes you know the cycle already.+ almost all developed economies are struggling with low birth rates immigration isn’t necessarily a bad thing and as chinas population collapses cuz of their one child policy they’ll be doing the same thing. Plus the dollar is still the world’s largest reserve currency and contrary to public fear mongering it’s not dropping. People had this same rhetoric about the US during the Cold War. They really thought the soviets would win for a time with the rise of Sputnik, space endeavours and socialism rapidly expanding throughout the world. The US is still the worlds biggest economy and will still be for the foreseeable future

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

The average American is cooked. Through DOGE they gutted every social safety net that is meant to protect American's from abject poverty and homelessness. Everything from medicare, medicaid, social security etc the whole welfare system.

On top of that there is mass lay offs left and right in the public sector, the private sector is headed towards the same job loss soon. The stock market is crashing so they will fire even more people.

You will have no support from the government( They took your tax money and gave it to rich elites or the military, or use it to deport people , border etc) and your ability to make or earn money to support yourself will be reduced. Even if you earn you wont have enough to pay for basic stuff because of inflation and prices being increased due to tariffs.

Somalis in America need to prepare now and not count on American economic stability and build up alternative revenue streams, strengthen the informal channels that we have already and create a large community/collectively owned fund to put the money into. Don't wait for the worse comes to show.

In reality, America, the empire, is in a panic mode having realised it is losing its global influence, and instead of being reflective, its current infantile leader and his advisors are tossing out everything within reach in the trolley.

I agree the biggest benefactor is China where economies of developing nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh etc will be wrecked eventually becoming beholden to China, which will come to the rescue by subterfuge, therein deluging their markets.

Postscript:
You are not in the US, are you? Outsiders tend to observe the decline much earlier than we do.

I pay attention to the writings of the likes of P Krugman, J Stiglitz, Y Varoufakis etc, and whilst they are astounded as to the end game, they are not, as of yet, panicking.

According to Y Varoufakis, the intent behind the tariffs is to devalue the US $ relative to say €, £, JPY etc to open up markets, thereby narrowing trade imbalance. Perhaps rationale to the madness?

In a recent article, J Stiglitz suggested the EU form G-1 trade partnership with China arguing EU and China are more in sync on major issues.

In my view, whilst there will be definite wobbles, tremors, and losses in some sectors, the US economy will re-calibrate as it usually does granted cost of living along with goods will rise in the interim.​

​

The difference will be what Trump does with the taxes (from tariffs windfall: 100bn expected from auto alone in round one): reward the rich, or invest in growth sectors. I suspect his advisors will attempt both, which might stretch the purse causing it to burst at the seams.​

​

In a nutshell, Trump will get his taxes, reward his rich financiers, ignore the poor, who will feel the pinch, cause mayhem elsewhere, and in the end, there will be a new normalcy. Walmart will rein supreme. The hell with the rest. That is the new mantra.

 

[Keep it a boqol]

Asias Population is slowly dying while america will continue to grow for the foreseeable future if they keep importing skilled workers and some low skilled workers.

Imo china will burn itself out. The pro for liberalism is that they’re not as ethnocentric and always encourages immigration and labour

 

[TheLand]

In reality, America, the empire, is in a panic mode having realised it is losing its global influence, and instead of being reflective, its current infantile leader and his advisors are tossing out everything within reach in the trolley.

I agree the biggest benefactor is China where economies of developing nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh etc will be wrecked eventually becoming beholden to China, which will come to the rescue by subterfuge, therein deluging their markets.

Postscript:
You are not in the US, are you? Outsiders tend to observe the decline much earlier than we do.

I pay attention to the writings of the likes of P Krugman, J Stiglitz, Y Varoufakis etc, and whilst they are astounded as to the end game, they are not, as of yet, panicking.

According to Y Varoufakis, the intent behind the tariffs is to devalue the US $ relative to say €, £, JPY etc to open up markets, thereby narrowing trade imbalance. Perhaps rationale to the madness?

In a recent article, J Stiglitz suggested the EU form G-1 trade partnership with China arguing EU and China are more in sync on major issues.

In my view, whilst there will be definite wobbles, tremors, and losses in some sectors, the US economy will re-calibrate as it usually does granted cost of living along with goods will rise in the interim.​

​

The difference will be what Trump does with the taxes (from tariffs windfall: 100bn expected from auto alone in round one): reward the rich, or invest in growth sectors. I suspect his advisors will attempt both, which might stretch the purse causing it to burst at the seams.​

​

In a nutshell, Trump will get his taxes, reward his rich financiers, ignore the poor, who will feel the pinch, cause mayhem elsewhere, and in the end, there will be a new normalcy. Walmart will rein supreme. The hell with the rest. That is the new mantra.

1. The tariff money goes into the treasury and he can’t take it out so not going to happen without congress approving it.
2. I think he’s doing all this to isolate America and create an us against the world mindset which he thinks will help the gop. Typical extremist playbook. Kinda similar to what kebab does.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

1. The tariff money goes into the treasury and he can’t take it out so not going to happen without congress approving it.

Yes, the intent is to justify tax-cuts to the oligarchs, and with both Chambers under Republican control, approval is granted.

 

[Ashraf]

Yes, the intent is to justify tax-cuts to the oligarchs, and with both Chambers under Republican control, approval is granted.

this is something reminiscent of 1970/80s Britain. When they discovered a massive oil field and used the revenue to justify tax cuts under thatcher instead of following the Norwegian model and investing into a sovereign wealth fund and heavily taxing oil profits using it to fund public infrastructure education etc. Britain could’ve been like Norway but they have some retarded ass politicians, what’s crazy is that Norway extracted the exact same amount of oil as Britain. It wasn’t a supply issue, they just privatised their oil corp and sold the shares they had left

 

[The truth seeker]

this is something reminiscent of 1970/80s Britain. When they discovered a massive oil field and used the revenue to justify tax cuts under thatcher instead of following the Norwegian model and investing into a sovereign wealth fund and heavily taxing oil profits using it to fund public infrastructure education etc. Britain could’ve been like Norway but they have some retarded ass politicians, what’s crazy is that Norway extracted the exact same amount of oil as Britain. It wasn’t a supply issue, they just privatised their oil corp and sold the shares they had left

Thatcher was short sighted trump wants to create a sovereign wealth fund but America has a huge population it’s most after Indian or China i believe wealth redistribution is not possible

North Sea oil could have been a game changer wallahi shame they squandered it sounds like what Canada is doing now

 

[Ashraf]

Thatcher was short sighted trump wants to create a sovereign wealth fund but America has a huge population it’s most after Indian or China i believe wealth redistribution is not possible

North Sea oil could have been a game changer wallahi shame they squandered it sounds like what Canada is doing now

These niggas wasted North Sea so bad, uk economy would’ve been over $400 billion dollars bigger if they followed the Norwegian model according to economists. Fucking waste. Reer Anglo leaders are inherently evil. Why can’t they have European type leaders like the French German Dutch Norwegian. Dumbass noggas who don’t care about the welfare of their own citizens. Most unequal country in Europe and I’m not surprised

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

this is something reminiscent of 1970/80s Britain. When they discovered a massive oil field and used the revenue to justify tax cuts under thatcher instead of following the Norwegian model and investing into a sovereign wealth fund and heavily taxing oil profits using it to fund public infrastructure education etc. Britain could’ve been like Norway but they have some retarded ass politicians, what’s crazy is that Norway extracted the exact same amount of oil as Britain. It wasn’t a supply issue, they just privatised their oil corp and sold the shares they had left

Thatchernomics was an extension of Reagonomics, which handed everything to corporations, and extended by NeoLibs under B Clinton, and now Trumpnomics is on steroids to further push the proverbial wagon over the cliff. His economic advisor are Ayn Rand acolytes, and students of Reagonomics: economic growth through exuberant tax-cuts to the wealth.

 

[The truth seeker]

Thatchernomics was an extension of Reagonomics, which handed everything to corporations, and extended by NeoLibs under B Clinton, and now Trumpnomics is on steroids to further push the proverbial wagon over the cliff. His economic advisor are Ayn Rand acolytes, and students of Reagonomics: economic growth through exuberant tax-cuts to the wealth.

What are you talking about the ground work for all this was laid out by jimmy carter who privatized and deregulated everything

The only mistake bill Clinton did was moving manufacturing to Mexico otherwise he was a solid president he balanced the budget and is responsible the most job growth is US history 4% annual GDP growth is impressive


Trump is protectionist and is pro manufacturing this is literally the opposite of neoliberalism

 

[The truth seeker]

Asias Population is slowly dying while america will continue to grow for the foreseeable future if they keep importing skilled workers and some low skilled workers.

Imo china will burn itself out. The pro for liberalism is that they’re not as ethnocentric and always encourages immigration and labour

The US has among the highest on average income in the OCED and the most in the G7 while gas prices are like 3$ due to Texan shale oil yet I keep hearing about “much inequality ”don’t know how good they have it

Chinese economic miracle of the 2000s and early 2010s is over there growing at a much slower pace now and face a crisis in housing and rampant deflation Asian countries are absolutely a demographic time bomb aging population means more government spending and rampant labour shortages

 

[Juke]

Chinese economic miracle of the 2000s and early 2010s is over there growing at a much slower pace now and face a crisis in housing and rampant deflation Asian countries are absolutely a demographic time bomb aging population means more government spending and rampant labour shortages

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[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

The only mistake bill Clinton did was moving manufacturing to Mexico otherwise he was a solid president he balanced the budget and is responsible the most job growth is US history 4% annual GDP growth is impressive

B Clinton did more than just balance the budget, but left surplus in the billions, which is not disputed. It is his becoming a champion for neoliberalism, and actually admitted to as much later in life. Corporations taking over the economy was a large part of his legacy.

This is a good book to read.

A Fabulous Failure

How the Clinton administration betrayed its progressive principles and capitulated to the right

press.princeton.edu