America Won’t Survive Trump’s Second Term—Here's Why

The truth seeker

Get Rich or Die Tryin'
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Is that why Shanghai has failed to become a major global financial center ?


Playing with real estate bubbles is dangerously you risk destroying the wealth of the middle class
 
Outsourcing your manufacturing base isn’t actually a bad thing, it’s something that happens when you transition into a high income service economy. Sectors like mining and others are just too degrading environmentally and you can outsource them as they did multiple times.
Outsourcing manufacturing is not inherently bad, but the issue is ''scale'' and ''dependency''. Unlike Germany or Japan, which maintained critical industries while shifting toward services, the U.S. has gutted entire manufacturing sectors, leaving it heavily reliant on foreign supply chains. The 2020 pandemic revealed just how vulnerable this made the country, shortages of medical supplies, semiconductors, and other essential goods were direct consequences of over-reliance on external production.


Moreover, industries like mining and heavy manufacturing have been key to economic self-sufficiency for high income nations. While environmental concerns are valid, responsible domestic production is preferable to outsourcing pollution and strategic industries to geopolitical rivals like China.

The Us has a massive internal economy and doesn’t rely on foreign trade like Europe.
While the U.S. does have a large internal market, it still heavily depends on global supply chains. The trade deficit has consistently widened, with China alone accounting for hundreds of billions in deficits annually. America’s manufacturing dependency is evident in sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare earth metals, many of which are sourced from Asia.


Unlike Europe, which has structured regional trade blocs to ensure stability, the U.S. is losing industrial competitiveness while depending on imports. A self-sustaining economy must be able to produce core goods domestically rather than relying on adversaries.


The rise of china doesnt = the fall of America. The have the highest gdp growth in the g7 and yes while they are becoming more unequal in the long run it can be reversed if a strong democrat candidate comes you know the cycle already.

China’s rise does not automatically mean America’s fall, but it does erode U.S. global dominance. China is building parallel economic institutions (BRICS, Belt and Road, alternative payment systems) that directly challenge U.S. financial and trade supremacy.


As for GDP growth, nominal numbers can be misleading. Much of U.S. growth is fueled by financial speculation, stock buybacks, and debt expansion rather than tangible production. Wealth inequality continues to rise, and simply electing a different political leader won’t reverse systemic economic decay.


+ almost all developed economies are struggling with low birth rates immigration isn’t necessarily a bad thing and as chinas population collapses cuz of their one child policy they’ll be doing the same thing.
While birth rate decline is a problem in developed nations, mass immigration is not a ''sustainable'' solution. Importing millions of low-skilled workers does not guarantee economic growth, Europe has already faced economic stagnation despite mass migration. The U.S. is now experiencing social fragmentation due to uncontrolled immigration.


China’s demographic issues are real, but they have a fundamentally different approach. Rather than importing cheap labor, China is investing in automation and technology to offset population decline. The U.S., by contrast, is filling its labor shortages with migrants, which creates long term economic and social challenges.

Plus the dollar is still the world’s largest reserve currency and contrary to public fear mongering it’s not dropping. People had this same rhetoric about the US during the Cold War. They really thought the soviets would win for a time with the rise of Sputnik, space endeavours and socialism rapidly expanding throughout the world.

While the U.S. dollar remains dominant, de-dollarization efforts are accelerating. BRICS nations, the Gulf states, and even U.S. allies like France have begun shifting to alternative payment systems. The dollar’s share in global reserves has dropped from over 70% in 2000 to around 58% today.

The issue is not that the dollar will vanish overnight but that its relative dominance is declining. The more countries move away from the dollar, the weaker America's economic leverage becomes.


The US is still the worlds biggest economy and will still be for the foreseeable future

The U.S. is the biggest economy by nominal GDP, but China has already surpassed it in purchasing power parity (PPP). China leads in global trade, infrastructure development, and industrial output.


If trends continue, the U.S. risks becoming a financialized, consumer driven economy while China controls the backbone of global production. Remaining the biggest economy is meaningless if the core industries, supply chains, and innovation hubs are moving elsewhere.

America in someways is already a consumer driven society and financialized, it's all going to collapse as you can imagine due to the tariffs, inflation that's going to spike up consumer prices and the global de-dollarization that's going to destroy it's financial strength.
 

The truth seeker

Get Rich or Die Tryin'
@Idilinaa Bill clintion had his own DOGE moment he fired 400,000 government employees and eliminated the deficit

Government bureaucracy is out of control and it’s why Bidens build back better failed

 

Shimbiris

بىَر غىَل إيؤ عآنؤ لؤ
VIP
Thatchernomics was an extension of Reagonomics, which handed everything to corporations, and extended by NeoLibs under B Clinton, and now Trumpnomics is on steroids to further push the proverbial wagon over the cliff. His economic advisor are Ayn Rand acolytes, and students of Reagonomics: economic growth through exuberant tax-cuts to the wealth.

It's funny how Thatcher began regretting some of her decisions later in her life when she saw some of the results. "Oh, maybe it wasn't a good idea to sell England to corporations and rich people. Maybe that won't actually benefit the English people as a whole..." what a dumb heifer.
 

The truth seeker

Get Rich or Die Tryin'
Outsourcing manufacturing is not inherently bad, but the issue is ''scale'' and ''dependency''. Unlike Germany or Japan, which maintained critical industries while shifting toward services, the U.S. has gutted entire manufacturing sectors, leaving it heavily reliant on foreign supply chains. The 2020 pandemic revealed just how vulnerable this made the country, shortages of medical supplies, semiconductors, and other essential goods were direct consequences of over-reliance on external production.


Moreover, industries like mining and heavy manufacturing have been key to economic self-sufficiency for high income nations. While environmental concerns are valid, responsible domestic production is preferable to outsourcing pollution and strategic industries to geopolitical rivals like China.


While the U.S. does have a large internal market, it still heavily depends on global supply chains. The trade deficit has consistently widened, with China alone accounting for hundreds of billions in deficits annually. America’s manufacturing dependency is evident in sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare earth metals, many of which are sourced from Asia.


Unlike Europe, which has structured regional trade blocs to ensure stability, the U.S. is losing industrial competitiveness while depending on imports. A self-sustaining economy must be able to produce core goods domestically rather than relying on adversaries.




China’s rise does not automatically mean America’s fall, but it does erode U.S. global dominance. China is building parallel economic institutions (BRICS, Belt and Road, alternative payment systems) that directly challenge U.S. financial and trade supremacy.


As for GDP growth, nominal numbers can be misleading. Much of U.S. growth is fueled by financial speculation, stock buybacks, and debt expansion rather than tangible production. Wealth inequality continues to rise, and simply electing a different political leader won’t reverse systemic economic decay.



While birth rate decline is a problem in developed nations, mass immigration is not a ''sustainable'' solution. Importing millions of low-skilled workers does not guarantee economic growth, Europe has already faced economic stagnation despite mass migration. The U.S. is now experiencing social fragmentation due to uncontrolled immigration.


China’s demographic issues are real, but they have a fundamentally different approach. Rather than importing cheap labor, China is investing in automation and technology to offset population decline. The U.S., by contrast, is filling its labor shortages with migrants, which creates long term economic and social challenges.



While the U.S. dollar remains dominant, de-dollarization efforts are accelerating. BRICS nations, the Gulf states, and even U.S. allies like France have begun shifting to alternative payment systems. The dollar’s share in global reserves has dropped from over 70% in 2000 to around 58% today.

The issue is not that the dollar will vanish overnight but that its relative dominance is declining. The more countries move away from the dollar, the weaker America's economic leverage becomes.




The U.S. is the biggest economy by nominal GDP, but China has already surpassed it in purchasing power parity (PPP). China leads in global trade, infrastructure development, and industrial output.


If trends continue, the U.S. risks becoming a financialized, consumer driven economy while China controls the backbone of global production. Remaining the biggest economy is meaningless if the core industries, supply chains, and innovation hubs are moving elsewhere.

America in someways is already a consumer driven society and financialized, it's all going to collapse as you can imagine due to the tariffs, inflation that's going to spike up consumer prices and the global de-dollarization that's going to destroy it's financial strength
The EU shots themselves in the foot with austerity , excessive regulation , lack of Tech investment , and importation of millions unskilled people form MENA

What “social fragmentation ”are you talking about I grew up in san Diego and everybody has assimilated into American culture which is now really the global culture

The us economy is among the least globalized in major economies only relying on trade for 24% of GDP consumer based economy is good for a high income economy that has a huge population


Main non USDcurrency gains since 2000 have been the Euro and the Yen the yuan is a joke
 

Ashraf

🌊🐫𐒅𐒔𐒖𐒂 𐒅𐒘𐒐𐒐𐒗𐒇🇸🇴🪽
Outsourcing manufacturing is not inherently bad, but the issue is ''scale'' and ''dependency''. Unlike Germany or Japan, which maintained critical industries while shifting toward services, the U.S. has gutted entire manufacturing sectors, leaving it heavily reliant on foreign supply chains. The 2020 pandemic revealed just how vulnerable this made the country, shortages of medical supplies, semiconductors, and other essential goods were direct consequences of over-reliance on external production.


Moreover, industries like mining and heavy manufacturing have been key to economic self-sufficiency for high income nations. While environmental concerns are valid, responsible domestic production is preferable to outsourcing pollution and strategic industries to geopolitical rivals like China.


While the U.S. does have a large internal market, it still heavily depends on global supply chains. The trade deficit has consistently widened, with China alone accounting for hundreds of billions in deficits annually. America’s manufacturing dependency is evident in sectors like semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare earth metals, many of which are sourced from Asia.


Unlike Europe, which has structured regional trade blocs to ensure stability, the U.S. is losing industrial competitiveness while depending on imports. A self-sustaining economy must be able to produce core goods domestically rather than relying on adversaries.




China’s rise does not automatically mean America’s fall, but it does erode U.S. global dominance. China is building parallel economic institutions (BRICS, Belt and Road, alternative payment systems) that directly challenge U.S. financial and trade supremacy.


As for GDP growth, nominal numbers can be misleading. Much of U.S. growth is fueled by financial speculation, stock buybacks, and debt expansion rather than tangible production. Wealth inequality continues to rise, and simply electing a different political leader won’t reverse systemic economic decay.



While birth rate decline is a problem in developed nations, mass immigration is not a ''sustainable'' solution. Importing millions of low-skilled workers does not guarantee economic growth, Europe has already faced economic stagnation despite mass migration. The U.S. is now experiencing social fragmentation due to uncontrolled immigration.


China’s demographic issues are real, but they have a fundamentally different approach. Rather than importing cheap labor, China is investing in automation and technology to offset population decline. The U.S., by contrast, is filling its labor shortages with migrants, which creates long term economic and social challenges.



While the U.S. dollar remains dominant, de-dollarization efforts are accelerating. BRICS nations, the Gulf states, and even U.S. allies like France have begun shifting to alternative payment systems. The dollar’s share in global reserves has dropped from over 70% in 2000 to around 58% today.

The issue is not that the dollar will vanish overnight but that its relative dominance is declining. The more countries move away from the dollar, the weaker America's economic leverage becomes.




The U.S. is the biggest economy by nominal GDP, but China has already surpassed it in purchasing power parity (PPP). China leads in global trade, infrastructure development, and industrial output.


If trends continue, the U.S. risks becoming a financialized, consumer driven economy while China controls the backbone of global production. Remaining the biggest economy is meaningless if the core industries, supply chains, and innovation hubs are moving elsewhere.

America in someways is already a consumer driven society and financialized, it's all going to collapse as you can imagine due to the tariffs, inflation that's going to spike up consumer prices and the global de-dollarization that's going to destroy it's financial strength.
Virtually every country, including china is dependant on semiconductors from Taiwan it’s not a domestic US issue. Europe, Japan, China all depend on Taiwan for semiconductors they literally monopolised the industry. Check out this vid
Apart form that you have some good insights. The next decade is critical to understanding who will dominate the remainder of the 21st century. If the EU recalibrates towards china the US is fucked. Trumps successor has a Herculean task to overcome if trump dismantles the EU relationship. The fact is the eu and the us won’t split up. As an economic block against china if you add the US+EU+japan+South Korea. Purchasing power parity far overcomes that of China and Russia. I wouldn’t include Brazil as their way too close economically with the US their membership in BRICs is more of a token. Like South Africa( doomed economy ) and India( Chinese rival which recently had a major defence deal with the Us)
The fact is a EU US split even during the trump term is highly unlikely. You’ve seen the relationship endure historically and not only that the rhetoric of EU leaders is still overwhelmingly pro us apart from France. The UK Germany Netherlands etc. Us still holds massive economic and military leverage over Europe and it’s better they just get a long than FAFO. Europe will turn to china disingenuously if trump fucks around too much to send him a message. And it’s clear since he released the tariffs yesterday they don’t seem too harsh or unfair
Also chinas regional inequality is way worse than the US. While they do have financial hubs like Shanghai and Beijing etc this came at the cost of a lot of rural areas a lot of which still are over polluted and poverty stricken. Actually china only recently alleviated a lot of its population out of absolute poverty. The US is 300 million and has massive potential still. So does china. As we saw what happened with the last Cold War when shit hits the fan the US knows too actually implement policy changes. Soviet Union gave rise to a lot of domestic changes within the US as socialist/communist ideology was challenging laissez faire capitalism. It brought workers rights, minimum wage social safety nets etc. you’ll probably see an improved version this time round.
 
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Juke

Asagu/Asaga
VIP
Is that why Shanghai has failed to become a major global financial center ?


Playing with real estate bubbles is dangerously you risk destroying the wealth of the middle class
You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
 

The truth seeker

Get Rich or Die Tryin'
Virtually every country, including china is dependant on semiconductors from Taiwan it’s not a domestic US issue. Europe, Japan, China all depend on Taiwan for semiconductors they literally monopolised the industry. Check out this vid
Apart form that you have some good insights. The next decade is critical to understanding who will dominate the remainder of the 21st century. If the EU recalibrates towards china the US is fucked. Trumps successor has a Herculean task to overcome if trump dismantles the EU relationship. The fact is the eu and the us won’t split up. As an economic block against china if you add the US+EU+japan+South Korea. Purchasing power parity far overcomes that of China and Russia. I wouldn’t include Brazil as their way too close economically with the US their membership in BRICs is more of a token. Like South Africa( doomed economy ) and India( Chinese rival which recently had a major defence deal with the Us)
The fact is a EU US split even during the trump term is highly unlikely. You’ve seen the relationship endure historically and not only that the rhetoric of EU leaders is still overwhelmingly pro us apart from France. The UK Germany Netherlands etc. Us still holds massive economic and military leverage over Europe and it’s better they just get a long than FAFO. Europe will turn to china disingenuously if trump fucks around too much to send him a message. And it’s clear since he released the tariffs yesterday they don’t seem too harsh or unfair
EU is anti Russia trans Atlantic alliance will continue if it survived Iraq it will survive trumps demand for more European defense spending which ultimately will make NATO stronger

BRICS is just china and India the rest is total joke Brazil has had a lost decade and Russia is in a quagmire with Ukraine and lost all of its money that was in the sovereign wealth fund

The arctic is gonna be a gold mine the next Suez as the global south runs out of fresh water and icecaps melt to the point where cargo ships can pass countries like Canada , US , and Russian will get rich of the minerals and oil alone

Alaska is a short cut getting cargo and passengers from Europe to Asia will be much easier and quicker anchorage id already the third largest cargo airport in the world

Chinas ban on crypto will hurt there attempts to be a major financial center and there attempts to influence the western Hemisphere countries won’t have a major impact until Brazil or Argentina develop an alternative to Miami then it’s game over for the US
 

The truth seeker

Get Rich or Die Tryin'
It's funny how Thatcher began regretting some of her decisions later in her life when she saw some of the results. "Oh, maybe it wasn't a good idea to sell England to corporations and rich people. Maybe that won't actually benefit the English people as a whole..." what a dumb heifer.
She sold the country to foreign corporations and gutted everything outside of London what’s ironic is right now after 14 years of Tory Mis management millionaires are fleeing the UK despite its taxes on wealthy being low

UK is becoming about as economically relevant as Spain soon austerity is really a nation killer
 
Virtually every country, including china is dependant on semiconductors from Taiwan it’s not a domestic US issue. Europe, Japan, China all depend on Taiwan for semiconductors they literally monopolised the industry. Check out this vid
Apart form that you have some good insights. The next decade is critical to understanding who will dominate the remainder of the 21st century. If the EU recalibrates towards china the US is fucked. Trumps successor has a Herculean task to overcome if trump dismantles the EU relationship. The fact is the eu and the us won’t split up. As an economic block against china if you add the US+EU+japan+South Korea. Purchasing power parity far overcomes that of China and Russia. I wouldn’t include Brazil as their way too close economically with the US their membership in BRICs is more of a token. Like South Africa( doomed economy ) and India( Chinese rival which recently had a major defence deal with the Us)
The fact is a EU US split even during the trump term is highly unlikely. You’ve seen the relationship endure historically and not only that the rhetoric of EU leaders is still overwhelmingly pro us apart from France. The UK Germany Netherlands etc. Us still holds massive economic and military leverage over Europe and it’s better they just get a long than FAFO. Europe will turn to china disingenuously if trump fucks around too much to send him a message. And it’s clear since he released the tariffs yesterday they don’t seem too harsh or unfair

You are correct that Taiwan dominates semiconductor production, but the issue isn’t just about dependency. It’s about Who is doing something about it. The U.S., EU, and China all recognize their over-reliance on Taiwan and are trying to establish domestic semiconductor production.

The CHIPS Act was a step in the right direction, but Trump’s opposition to it contradicts his "America First" stance.

I have actually covered it in another thread how he gutted the successful CHIPS Act that Biden enacted: Have a read , it was a response to @The truth seeker and it would have created tons of jobs and pull in large amounts of revenue. The only reason he gutted the whole initiative , i can think of was to snub Biden. What a bafoon.
If he wants to bring back manufacturing why did he axe Joe Bidens bill of creating chip manufacturing jobs? he killed 115.000 factory jobs just to snub Biden.

This was meant to make America less reliant on Taiwan for import of chips and build their own manufacturing base domestically while creating jobs and boosting the economy.

It was a success even



And why did more manufacturing jobs leave abroad in his first term, this is when he also put out non-targeted tariffs.

During Trump Presidency, 200,000 Jobs Offshored and Corporations Involved Awarded $425 Billion in Federal Contracts​


All he did was award the companies with billions of dollars while they shipped jobs abroad to avoid tariffs.

There is a way to punish them by cutting off their federal funding unless they create jobs domestically but he didn't even do that.

Another example he gave them tax money to keep the jobs, but still outsourced the jobs anyway and he didn't say or do anything about it.

Carrier factory where Trump touted saved jobs is laying off hundreds​


Trump is a complete imbecile , he has no understanding of economics and job creation. He doesn't even do targeted tariffs(which can help certain industries) and also do at the same time build manufacturing jobs and factory facilities, create investment/subsidizing schemes that incentivize local job creation. He doesn't do any of that.

Brace yourself for a big wave of unemployement and many jobs leaving the country.

Another thing you say the U.S + EU + Japan + South Korea form a powerful economic block against China is true in theory. However, the key question is whether these countries will remain aligned.

This rests on an assumption that things remained as they are. When the evidence points in another direction. The EU is increasingly diversifying it's economic ties, including with China. Japan and South Korea both have deep trade relationships with China.

Even U.S. allies are looking for alternatives due to the unpredictability of American policies. How can they even trust them after the stunt Trump has pulled, what bafoon. That trust is broken.

If the U.S. continues erratic trade policies under Trump, it risks alienating allies, pushing them closer to China. Even if he decides to not go through with some of them in the end, things are set in motion, they are not going to stay on their toes to find out what happens later.

What i pointed out earlier was correct that while the dollar is still dominant, its share of global reserves is declining. This is critical because the U.S. relies heavily on financial leverage to maintain its global economic position. If more countries shift away from the dollar, the U.S. will struggle to finance its massive deficits.

The biggest flaw in your argument is the assumption that simply being a part of a large economic block (U.S.-EU-Japan-Korea) ensures dominance. China has aggressively invested in manufacturing, infrastructure, and domestic supply chains, whereas the U.S. has prioritized financialization. Without serious industrial policies, the U.S risks further decline in its productive capabilities.


The EU shots themselves in the foot with austerity , excessive regulation , lack of Tech investment , and importation of millions unskilled people form MENA

Yes, EU has problems with austerity and lack of tech investment, but that doesn't negate America's deindustrialization and financialization issues.

The EU still has strong industrial bases in Germany, France, and Italy, whereas the U.S. has outsourced most of its heavy manufacturing.

What “social fragmentation ”are you talking about I grew up in san Diego and everybody has assimilated into American culture which is now really the global culture
San Diego is not representative of the entire country. Many cities and states ( Chicago, New York, Texas, and California itself) have seen increasing tensions over immigration, crime, and economic disparities.

A consumer driven economy propped up by constant immigration to maintain GDP growth is not the same as a self sufficient industrial economy.

Also the whole American culture is widely adopted argument is irrelevant, because the dominance of culture doesn't equate to economic stability.

Countries can consume American media while still operating under economic and political models that rival or surpass the U.S (like China, Russia, BRICS nations).
 
She sold the country to foreign corporations and gutted everything outside of London what’s ironic is right now after 14 years of Tory Mis management millionaires are fleeing the UK despite its taxes on wealthy being low

UK is becoming about as economically relevant as Spain soon austerity is really a nation killer
To trully see her legacy, visit the Black Country (Midlands i.e. Birmingham and surrounding counties), complete destruction of North England, and later Wales. Generational loss is unimaginable, I have got mates whose families never recovered. Damage is closer to him than one might think.

But forget not, we got the Yuppie culture. Damn!
 
@Idilinaa Bill clintion had his own DOGE moment he fired 400,000 government employees and eliminated the deficit

Government bureaucracy is out of control and it’s why Bidens build back better failed


Such a false equivalence. Not only did Clinton reduce the federal workforce as part of a deficit reduction strategy during a period of economic expansion.

The U.S. economy was booming in the late 1990s, with job creation in the private sector outpacing government layoffs.

In contrast, today’s concerns revolve around mass layoffs in both the public and private sectors, rising inflation, and a declining stock market, all happening simultaneously.

The biggest problem with DOGE is the total lack of transparency, they are claiming there is ''Waste'' and that's why they are laying the off but they don't explain how. They are claiming ''Fraud", no one is being prosecuted for it. How is their fraud if not a single person is held to account?

It's just a slash and burn exercise. They are just firing people at random and not even assessing what they do. Burning down entire sections of the public sector whilst doing it.



You can tell it's a slash and burn excercise, because they have to re-hire people back after firing and mass laying them off. They don't even look to see who they are firing, as they later find out these are important positions

When Clinton did shrink the government everything was out in the open and it was at the dawn of the internet age, where they reduced the work force to make it more tech savy and modern. It was done carefully, gradually and systematically. They had it flow through congress, to have it voted and approved on.

Also , Biden’s ''Build Back Better'' failing is unrelated . The failure of Biden’s economic bill was due to political opposition and corporate lobbying, not because of government bureaucracy

Clinton’s policies were enacted in a different political and economic climate where bipartisanship was still functional.

Today’s gridlock is fueled by partisan obstructionism and the interests of wealthy elites, which make passing large scale reforms difficult.

Next you are going to tell me that the CHIPS ACT failed because of Biden not because Trump prevent it.
 
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Virtually every country, including china is dependant on semiconductors from Taiwan it’s not a domestic US issue. Europe, Japan, China all depend on Taiwan for semiconductors they literally monopolised the industry.

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Top-10-Semiconductor-Companies-Grabbed-67-Market-Share-in-2024-1.png
 
Some intresting responses. One thing i will say is that America is declining in absolute and relative terms. People should understand that there is no chance of a collapse and the u.s will be the number 2 power even after china surpasses it in the next decade or two . For another several decades.
I would also never beg against America. If there's anybody who can solve their problems it's america.

There's a reason otto von Bismarck the guy who unified Germany and one of the greatest european leaders in history said " God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America"
 

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