Big welcome for mudane madaxweyne ee mamuulka

[Bohol]

It is strange how people love him compared to Siilanyo. Security stops the supporters getting too close
since it is overcrowded.

I predict around 70% of the votes in Togdheer will go to WADANI. Two reasons why.

1. Thousands crossed over the border from Gashaamo and Daror districts in Ethiopia (both combined have over 200,000 in population).

2. There is no UCID in Togdheer this time to divide votes.

@Rooble @Hemaal @iNutEasily

 

[Foreman]

They crossed the border last time and it didn't help UDUB and UCID either. Hargiesa and Burco are Kulmiyi's power house I expect a landslide victory.

 

[Bohol]

They crossed the border last time and it didn't help UDUB and UCID either. Hargiesa and Burco are Kulmiyi's power house I expect a landslide victory.

UDUB beat Kulmiye in 2003 and that was many Hargeisa clans voting for Kulmiye such as Arap
and the Cidagale wasted their votes on UCID. Both groups are largely part of WADANI now. In
2010 UDUB supporters did not vote as much as back in 2003. Kulmiye coalition is much weaker
now easier to beat in the elections.

 

[Foreman]

In 2003 people didn't cross the borders and there was huge corruption allegations, they also didn't have the new IRIS registration sytsem.


In Hargeysa, Kulmiye came out on top and increased its support in comparison to the presidential election. The main factor behind Kulmiye’s success was the fact that its list of candidates more fairly represented the region’s indigenous clans – thereby giving the party substantial votes from most of Hargeysa’s sub-clans (see Table 5). According to some observers, were it not for UDUB and UCID supporters crossing the border to vote in Hargeysa, the margin of Kulmiye’s victory could have been even greater.



Kulmiye had to perform extremely well in the eastern regions of Togdheer, Sanaag and Sool if it was to have any chance of beating the ruling party. However, in the event, the party won more seats than UDUB only in Togdheer

 

[Bohol]

So. There was corruption and double voting in 2010 elections as well. This election might be the first with transparency though.

 

[Foreman]

So. There was corruption and double voting in 2010 elections as well. This election might be the first with transparency though.

Than why are you counting on votes from Ethiopia, unless they got IRIS scan and obtain a card their votes are useless. UCID is finished and no body knows where the support base of that party would vote to.

 

[Bohol]

Than why are you counting on votes from Ethiopia, unless they got IRIS scan and obtain a card their votes are useless. UCID is finished and no body knows where the vote base of that party would go to.

The people already registered however many went to cross the border due to the abaar
but are coming back now to get their cards. All of UCID votes in Sanaag, Sahil and
Togdheer will go to WADANI because only HY use to vote for that party in those areas
in the past. Hargeisa area UCID votes is up to the Cidagales where it goes.

 

[Bohol]

Check this article for example. Kulmiye are complaining 30,000 of their supporters are stranded in Ethiopia due to the abaar since they crossed over there and Ethiopia closed the borders.

http://somalilandtoday.com/xisbiga-...i-iyo-maxamed-kaahin-oo-dhallinyarada-beesha/

 

[Foreman]

The people already registered however many went to cross the border due to the abaar
but are coming back now to get their cards. All of UCID votes in Sanaag and Togdheer
will go to WADANI because only HY use to vote for that party in those areas in the past.
Hargeisa area UCID votes is up to the Cidagales where it goes.

UCID has broken down, Harvard graduate has joined Kulmiyi and Mr Trump is going for the presidency no body knows how the party's vote base will unfold but it will most likely split between Warabe, Kulmiyi and Wadani.

As far as Sanaag is concerned in the last district elections proved UCID had no support in the region they got only 3 (1 form Ceel Afweyn and 2 from Ceerigabo) they are a minor player. In comparison Kulmiyi and it's junior party Rays has won the majority of seats in Sanaag with whooping 29 seats where as Wadani and Umada lagged behind with 16

 

[Bohol]

View attachment 22572

UCID has broken down, Harvard graduate has joined Kulmiyi and Mr Trump is going for the presidency no body knows how the party's vote base will unfold but it will mostly likely split between Warabe, Kulmiyi and Wadani.

As far as Sanaag is concerned in the last district elections proved UCID had no support in the region they got only 3 (1 form Ceel Afweyn and 2 from Ceerigabo) they are a minor player. In comparison Kulmiyi and it's junior party Rays has won the majority of seats in Sanaag with whooping 29 seats where as Wadani and Umada lagged behind with 16

View attachment 22572

You just prove my point. Because of creation of WADANI UCID is wiped out from the east,
it use to feed on us like a parasite. Back in 2003, 2005 and 2010 UCID got some good votes
in Togdheer, Sanaag and Sahil with many MPs in the parliament such as Salebaan Cawad Ali
Bukhaari and Abdiqadir Askar. In this election UCID will be completely wiped out from the east
and central areas since all HY will vote for WADANI. In 2005 parliamentary elections UCID got
around 60,000 votes from HY. Local election is different to general. In general election it is more
clan linked, for example in 2012 local elections around 7 of the Kulmiye MPs in Sanaag weren't
even HJ but Dhulos and 1 Gadhweyn. That is why HJ has only 2 MPs in Ceerigaabo district.

 

[Foreman]

Check this article for example. Kulmiye are complaining 30,000 of their supporters are stranded in Ethiopia due to the abaar since they crossed over there and Ethiopia closed the borders.

http://somalilandtoday.com/xisbiga-...i-iyo-maxamed-kaahin-oo-dhallinyarada-beesha/

I expect you better than to follow Somali media. They are grossly deceitful and lack professionalism. I rather something solid with citation from APD. I can't wait for 2018 report after Kulmiyi win that is :siilaanyosmile:

 

[Bohol]

I expect you better than to follow Somali media. They are grossly deceitful and lack professionalism. I rather something solid with citation from APD. I can't wait for 2018 report after Kulmiyi win that is :siilaanyosmile:

Somali media provide a lot of insight on what happens on the ground. That is why Kulmiye hates the press in Somaliland Lol.

 

[Foreman]

You just prove my point. Because of creation of WADANI UCID is wiped out from the east,
it use to feed on us like a parasite. Back in 2003, 2005 and 2010 UCID got some good votes
in Togdheer, Sanaag and Sahil with many MPs in the parliament such as Salebaan Cawad Ali
Bukhaari and Abdiqadir Askar. In this election UCID will be completely wiped out from the east
and central areas since all HY will vote for WADANI. In 2005 parliamentary elections UCID got
around 60,000 votes from HY. Local election is different to general. In general election it is more
clan linked, for example in 2012 local elections around 7 of the Kulmiye MPs in Sanaag weren't
even HJ but Dhulos and 1 Gadhweyn. That is why HJ has only 2 MPs in Ceerigaabo district.

All parties have nominate candidates from local communities to win seats, it would be a mistake to attribute all votes received by a party
to a single clan.

 

[Foreman]

. In 2005 parliamentary elections UCID got
around 60,000 votes from HY. Local election is different to general. In general election it is more
clan linked, for example in 2012 local elections around 7 of the Kulmiye MPs in Sanaag weren't
even HJ but Dhulos and 1 Gadhweyn. That is why HJ has only 2 MPs in Ceerigaabo district.

Dolbahante got 6 seats overall 3 with Kulmiyi, 2 with UDUB and 1 with UCID.

 

[Bohol]

Dolbahante got 6 seats overall 3 with Kulmiyi, 2 with UDUB and 1 with UCID.

There was no UDUB in 2012 local elections. You properly mean back in 2005.

 

[Foreman]

Yes 2005 election. They will properly join Kulmiyi again and deliver Sool on plate of gold. LA has been allocated 21 seat when Xudun, Taleex and Caynaba got 13 each. Wadani has no chance am telling ya

 

[Bohol]

Yes 2005 election. They will properly join Kulmiyi again and deliver Sool on plate of gold. LA has been allocated 21 seat when Xudun, Taleex and Caynaba got 13 each. Wadani ha no chance am telling ya

Xudun is WADANI stronghold. All 6 local MPs there were chosen from
WADANI (4) and 2 (UMADDA) and of course they are from the blessed
clan of Sacad Yoonis. Taleex and Las Anod won't vote much as usual.
Don't make the same mistake as Xaqsoor party thinking they have your back.

:siilaanyosmile:

 

[Foreman]

Xudun is WADANI stronghold. All 6 local MPS there were chosen from WADANI (4) and 2 (UMADDA) and of course they are from the blessed clan of Sacad Yoonis.

Taleex and Laascanood combined have 34k votes with Caynaba 31k you are running Xudun district of 5k against rest of Sool's 65k

We will witness 300 in Nov :siilaanyolaugh:

 

[Bohol]

Taleex and Laascanood combined have 34k votes with Caynaba 31k you are running Xudun district of 5k against rest of Sool's 65k

We will witness 300 in Nov :siilaanyolaugh:

Taleex and Las Anod are Dhulbahante districts. I don't care what happens in those areas. As-long as there is no single Kulmiye (Qudhmiye) MP in Xudun district it is all good.

 

[The Cushitic One]

They crossed the border last time and it didn't help UDUB and UCID either. Hargiesa and Burco are Kulmiyi's power house I expect a landslide victory.

Insha'Allah ..... I already know
We will win!