This nigga is really threatening sanctions against Puntland because one guy asked a question on a forum.
Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia
- Thread starter Sheikh Kulkuli
- Start date
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
@xabashi
How can the world know what is going on in the Tigray Region if the Amharas cut power and internet for people over there? And how can the Tigrayan hospitals and delivery/nurseries work without electricity? Are Amharas trying to kill Tigray civilians? Given your people's record on human rights and addiction to atrocities, I suspect a lot of abuses of the Tigrayans are taking place right now.
How can the world know what is going on in the Tigray Region if the Amharas cut power and internet for people over there? And how can the Tigrayan hospitals and delivery/nurseries work without electricity? Are Amharas trying to kill Tigray civilians? Given your people's record on human rights and addiction to atrocities, I suspect a lot of abuses of the Tigrayans are taking place right now.
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
Explainer: What is happening in Ethiopia’s Tigray region?
Ethiopia’s federal government has declared an “unexpected war” on its northern Tigray state, threatening the stability of one of the world’s most strategic regions, the Horn of Africa.
But the crisis in Ethiopia, one of Africa’s most populous countries, has been building for months, and “it has been like watching a train crash in slow motion”, Dino Mahtani with the International Crisis Group said this week.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for sweeping political reforms, faces the sharpest consequences yet of the country’s recent shifts in power.
Abiy on Friday said the federal military operations in the north have “clear, limited and achievable objectives”, while the head of the United Nations said he was deeply alarmed.
Here is why the international community is alarmed:
What happened in Tigray?
Two things occurred early Wednesday morning: Communications were cut in Ethiopia’s heavily armed northern Tigray region, and Abiy announced he had ordered troops to respond to an alleged deadly attack by Tigray’s forces on a military base there.
Both sides have accused each other of initiating the fighting. And both stepped up the pressure late on Thursday.
Sporadic sounds of shelling could be heard from Aburafi town, near the Tigray-Amhara border, at 3am local time (00:00 GMT) on Friday, a humanitarian worker in the area told the Reuters news agency.
Ethiopia’s army said it was deploying troops from around the country to Tigray, and the Tigray leader alleged fighter jets had bombed parts of the regional capital. “We are ready to be martyrs,” he said. Casualties have been reported on both sides.
Some experts have compared the confrontation with an inter-state war, with two large and well-trained forces showing little sign of backing down.
Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most well-armed nations, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) dominated the country’s military and government before Abiy took office in 2018.
It has plenty of conflict experience from Ethiopia’s years-long border war with Eritrea, next door to the Tigray region, and the International Crisis Group estimates the TPLF’s paramilitary force and local militia have some 250,000 troops.
With communications still out, it is difficult to verify either side’s account of events on the ground.
How did we get here?
Ethiopia’s governing coalition appointed Abiy as prime minister in 2018 to help calm months of anti-government protests. He quickly won praise – and the Nobel – for opening political space and curbing repressive measures in the country of some 110 million people and many ethnic groups.
But the TPLF felt increasingly marginalised and withdrew last year from the governing coalition.
The TPLF objects to Ethiopia’s delayed election, blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic, and Abiy’s extended time in office.
In September, the Tigray region voted in a local election that Ethiopia’s federal government called illegal. The federal government later moved to divert funding from the TPLF executive to local governments, angering the regional leadership.
On Monday, Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael warned a bloody conflict could erupt.
What could happen now?
The conflict could spread to other parts of Ethiopia, where some regions have been calling for more autonomy, and deadly ethnic violence has led the federal government to restore measures including arresting critics.
Addressing those fears, Ethiopia’s deputy army chief Birhanu Jula late on Thursday said of Tigray: “The war will end there.”
Some governments and experts are urgently calling for dialogue over Tigray. A Western diplomat in the capital, Addis Ababa, said: “The message from the Ethiopians is if you talk about a dialogue you equate the two parties, but ‘this is a legitimate government, that’s a renegade group’.”
The objective as put forward by Ethiopia is to crush the TPLF, the diplomat said on condition of anonymity, and “if I say I am going to crush you, then is there really scope for any negotiation?”
The TPLF before the fighting said it is not interested in negotiating with the federal government and has sought the release of detained leaders as a precondition to talks.
An inclusive dialogue must occur, observers say, but a statement late on Thursday by a panel of former US diplomats and military experts for the United States Institute of Peace warned it will not go far “while many of the country’s most prominent political leaders remain in prison”.
What does this mean beyond Ethiopia?
Few regions are more vulnerable than the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s neighbours include Somalia – Ethiopian forces have reportedly begun withdrawing from that country to return home – and Sudan, facing its own huge political transition.
Neighbouring Eritrea has shown little sign of opening up after making peace with Ethiopia in 2018, and its government and the one in Tigray do not get along.
A region in which Abiy has played high-profile peacemaker is now at risk.
Observers warn a conflict could suck in these countries and others not far from the most strategic military outpost in Africa, tiny Djibouti, where several global powers including the US and China have their only bases.
The Horn of Africa is also a short water crossing away from Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula.
“The stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region. I call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a message on Twitter on Friday.
Ethiopia already was drawing concern over a dispute with downstream Egypt over a huge dam Ethiopia is nearing completion on the Blue Nile.
While there have been worries about military action, “I would like to think Egypt is a responsible enough actor to realise that fragmentation of Ethiopia is fundamentally so damaging to regional security,” former US diplomat Payton Knopf, a senior adviser with the United States Institute of Peace, said this week.
Ethiopia’s federal government has declared an “unexpected war” on its northern Tigray state, threatening the stability of one of the world’s most strategic regions, the Horn of Africa.
But the crisis in Ethiopia, one of Africa’s most populous countries, has been building for months, and “it has been like watching a train crash in slow motion”, Dino Mahtani with the International Crisis Group said this week.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for sweeping political reforms, faces the sharpest consequences yet of the country’s recent shifts in power.
Abiy on Friday said the federal military operations in the north have “clear, limited and achievable objectives”, while the head of the United Nations said he was deeply alarmed.
Here is why the international community is alarmed:
What happened in Tigray?
Two things occurred early Wednesday morning: Communications were cut in Ethiopia’s heavily armed northern Tigray region, and Abiy announced he had ordered troops to respond to an alleged deadly attack by Tigray’s forces on a military base there.
Both sides have accused each other of initiating the fighting. And both stepped up the pressure late on Thursday.
Sporadic sounds of shelling could be heard from Aburafi town, near the Tigray-Amhara border, at 3am local time (00:00 GMT) on Friday, a humanitarian worker in the area told the Reuters news agency.
Ethiopia’s army said it was deploying troops from around the country to Tigray, and the Tigray leader alleged fighter jets had bombed parts of the regional capital. “We are ready to be martyrs,” he said. Casualties have been reported on both sides.
Some experts have compared the confrontation with an inter-state war, with two large and well-trained forces showing little sign of backing down.
Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most well-armed nations, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) dominated the country’s military and government before Abiy took office in 2018.
It has plenty of conflict experience from Ethiopia’s years-long border war with Eritrea, next door to the Tigray region, and the International Crisis Group estimates the TPLF’s paramilitary force and local militia have some 250,000 troops.
With communications still out, it is difficult to verify either side’s account of events on the ground.
How did we get here?
Ethiopia’s governing coalition appointed Abiy as prime minister in 2018 to help calm months of anti-government protests. He quickly won praise – and the Nobel – for opening political space and curbing repressive measures in the country of some 110 million people and many ethnic groups.
But the TPLF felt increasingly marginalised and withdrew last year from the governing coalition.
The TPLF objects to Ethiopia’s delayed election, blamed on the COVID-19 pandemic, and Abiy’s extended time in office.
In September, the Tigray region voted in a local election that Ethiopia’s federal government called illegal. The federal government later moved to divert funding from the TPLF executive to local governments, angering the regional leadership.
On Monday, Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael warned a bloody conflict could erupt.
What could happen now?
The conflict could spread to other parts of Ethiopia, where some regions have been calling for more autonomy, and deadly ethnic violence has led the federal government to restore measures including arresting critics.
Addressing those fears, Ethiopia’s deputy army chief Birhanu Jula late on Thursday said of Tigray: “The war will end there.”
Some governments and experts are urgently calling for dialogue over Tigray. A Western diplomat in the capital, Addis Ababa, said: “The message from the Ethiopians is if you talk about a dialogue you equate the two parties, but ‘this is a legitimate government, that’s a renegade group’.”
The objective as put forward by Ethiopia is to crush the TPLF, the diplomat said on condition of anonymity, and “if I say I am going to crush you, then is there really scope for any negotiation?”
The TPLF before the fighting said it is not interested in negotiating with the federal government and has sought the release of detained leaders as a precondition to talks.
An inclusive dialogue must occur, observers say, but a statement late on Thursday by a panel of former US diplomats and military experts for the United States Institute of Peace warned it will not go far “while many of the country’s most prominent political leaders remain in prison”.
What does this mean beyond Ethiopia?
Few regions are more vulnerable than the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s neighbours include Somalia – Ethiopian forces have reportedly begun withdrawing from that country to return home – and Sudan, facing its own huge political transition.
Neighbouring Eritrea has shown little sign of opening up after making peace with Ethiopia in 2018, and its government and the one in Tigray do not get along.
A region in which Abiy has played high-profile peacemaker is now at risk.
Observers warn a conflict could suck in these countries and others not far from the most strategic military outpost in Africa, tiny Djibouti, where several global powers including the US and China have their only bases.
The Horn of Africa is also a short water crossing away from Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula.
“The stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region. I call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a message on Twitter on Friday.
Ethiopia already was drawing concern over a dispute with downstream Egypt over a huge dam Ethiopia is nearing completion on the Blue Nile.
While there have been worries about military action, “I would like to think Egypt is a responsible enough actor to realise that fragmentation of Ethiopia is fundamentally so damaging to regional security,” former US diplomat Payton Knopf, a senior adviser with the United States Institute of Peace, said this week.
"Making matters worse, tensions are building around the control of federal military units stationed in Tigray. On 24 October, Tigray’s government rejected a federal decision to reshuffle the leadership of the military’s Northern Command. According to former Tigrayan officers who spoke to Crisis Group, because the command was at the forefront of the struggle with neighbouring Eritrea since the 1998-2000 war, it still comprises more than half of the armed forces’ total personnel and mechanised divisions."
www.crisisgroup.org
No wonder the TPLF want to keep the status quo and conflict going, the power is centered around them.
Steering Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis Away from Conflict
A clash over budget transfers is the latest flashpoint in the bitter dispute between Ethiopian federal authorities and their rivals in Tigray. To avoid the standoff triggering a damaging conflict, both sides should back down and embrace comprehensive dialogue.
www.crisisgroup.org
No wonder the TPLF want to keep the status quo and conflict going, the power is centered around them.
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
What I understood, the Tigrayan army (TPLF’s paramilitary force and local militia) is 250,000 strong. It has combat experience and well armed.
Initially Amhara @xabashi was telling us that the war would end in few days, then few weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the conflict lasts few months or even longer now.
The TPLF command should establish a contact with Egypt for arms supply if they are serious about defending their homeland for months on.
The West is not thrilled by Abiy's decision to lock up the political/military opponents. I don't think the International Community (IC) will agree to the prolonged electricity/internet cuts of the Tigray Region either. I believe Abiy has overstepped and might end up regretting his actions.
Eventually there will be negotiations between the two sides. The subject of them will depend on the outcome of the war.
Afwerki and his fiefdom, Eritrea, should be exposed to the IC for his involvement in the war. As I said before, Egypt should capitalize on it and use the war to its own advantage. From the article it is clear the US expects some level of Egyptian engagement:
"I would like to think Egypt is a responsible enough actor to realize that fragmentation of Ethiopia is fundamentally so damaging to regional security,” former US diplomat Payton Knopf, a senior adviser with the United States Institute of Peace, said this week.
Initially Amhara @xabashi was telling us that the war would end in few days, then few weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the conflict lasts few months or even longer now.
The TPLF command should establish a contact with Egypt for arms supply if they are serious about defending their homeland for months on.
The West is not thrilled by Abiy's decision to lock up the political/military opponents. I don't think the International Community (IC) will agree to the prolonged electricity/internet cuts of the Tigray Region either. I believe Abiy has overstepped and might end up regretting his actions.
Eventually there will be negotiations between the two sides. The subject of them will depend on the outcome of the war.
Afwerki and his fiefdom, Eritrea, should be exposed to the IC for his involvement in the war. As I said before, Egypt should capitalize on it and use the war to its own advantage. From the article it is clear the US expects some level of Egyptian engagement:
"I would like to think Egypt is a responsible enough actor to realize that fragmentation of Ethiopia is fundamentally so damaging to regional security,” former US diplomat Payton Knopf, a senior adviser with the United States Institute of Peace, said this week.
STOP THE LIES
you have been insulting Django for months calling him terrorist and Islamic fundamentalist for stating his opinion, you have been insulting him and his religion Islam, you have used the terrorist card so any times
and you have called him stupid, idiot, and other insulting terms,
cry me a river, you ahmara throw rocks then cry foul, typical amhara tactic, insult others the accuse them of insulting you,
what gave you the right to call Muslims in a Somali Muslim forum terrorist just because they disagree with you?
if someone disagrees with you, disagree back, but no need to come to our forum and call us terrorist, a over used tired card,
Just because your Christian and hate Muslims, does not mean you have the right to throw cheap insults at us like terrorist
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TPLF attacked the northern command army depot. If you attack the federal army, you are declaring war. Abiy has no other option than to go full scale. He tolerated them when last week TPLF blocked a general in Mekele Airport from going to his new office. That was already very severe and now they have attacked and controlled some of the northern command hardware while the army was sleeping at night. What they did was one of the most extreme forms of treason of the highest order. Abiy has no other option than to go full blown war. They did this as a bargaining cheap for a possible negotiation but honestly I see no negotiation coming. I would even be surprised if the army will allow them to surrender. That was suicidal!
Lmaoo you been reading too much tigraionline
Tigray is fucked, a barren land-locked state with no regional allies. Sudan, Eritrean, Ethiopian governments are all on friendly terms which means a logistical nightmare for TPLF, no supply lines and no means to means to conduct prolonged warfare.
Cucks. There is no democratic transformation. I never expected the ONLF to support a man who is trying to dismantle ethnic federalism.
I get excited everytime someone posts a new tweet. this is like watching a movie
According to who? Abiy? Convenient how he shut off the internet in Tigray before they could tell their side of the story. Your Abiy propaganda won't convince anyone here.
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
The TPLF ALLEGEDLY attacked the northern command army depot. Remember the fight is going on inside the Tigray Region. The TPLF is saying that it were Abiy/Amharas who attacked first. In any case, the main aggressor here is the Amharas. What Tigrayans did to deserve being attacked and murdered? Answer: Elections inside their own Tigray Region.
Re-read that article. It clearly says before being cornered, the TPLF was ready to negotiate if its detained leaders released.
Admit it. The Amhara leadership's actions are evil at its core.
"The objective as put forward by Ethiopia is to crush the TPLF, the diplomat said on condition of anonymity, and “if I say I am going to crush you, then is there really scope for any negotiation?”
The TPLF before the fighting said it is not interested in negotiating with the federal government and has sought the release of detained leaders as a precondition to talks."
According to who? Abiy? Convenient how he shut off the internet in Tigray before they could tell their side of the story. Your Abiy propaganda won't convince anyone here.
Multiple sources have confirmed that this happened and indirectly DW (Deutsche Welle) in Mekele saw that federal hardware and military posts are now being patrolled by Tigray Liyu and no more by federal army as used to be. Even TPLF confirmed that they have now controlled the hardware from northern command. They just said that the army "cooperated". So every evidence confirms the worst treason TPLF committed. The anger among Ethiopians I know even among those who were very critical against PM Abiy is unbelievable. The TPLF mafia committed the worst sin! The best what they can do is openly apologize to the army and hope for a jail sentence otherwise in few days they may not be able to surrender.
Is Ethiopia Headed for Civil War?
Abiy Ahmed’s military move against the Tigray region could spark a conflict with the party that once dominated Ethiopian politics—and tear the country apart.
foreignpolicy.com
It is plausible, as Abiy claims, that the TPLF tried to seize assets belonging to the command. But it is not certain whether this took place before or after federal troops were deployed. A former Tigrayan general in Mekelle, the region’s capital, told me last week that taking such equipment “out of the equation” might be necessary should tensions boil over. A politburo meeting this weekend resulted in “historic decisions” taken to bolster the region’s preparedness, said Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official, on Twitter. On Sunday the regional president, Debretsion Gebremichael, declared that “if war is imminent, we are prepared not just to resist but to win.”
But it is also apparent that there were significant movements of federal troops in the days preceding Nov. 4. According to a United Nations diplomat, units had been withdrawn from several parts of southern Ethiopia, including the areas of Hararghe and Somali in the southeast, and from the Welega zone in western Oromia region. “[The federal government] will have difficulty convincing anyone worth their salt that this wasn’t pre-planned,” the source said."
AbdiGeedi
To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
I have never read tigraionline. Tigray is not as barren as you claim. It only needs one ally right now and that country is Egypt. Sudan is definitely not rooting for Ethiopia, but concerned about possible spill-over of the fighting to its side. Don't underestimate people's resistance. Just look at landlocked Afghanistan and years of war it endured against Russia.
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"It was not immediately clear who really fired the first gunshots. According to the federal government, the TPLF attempted to “loot” equipment from the federal military’s Northern Command, which is stationed in Tigray near the border with Eritrea and is said to comprise most of Ethiopia’s armed personnel and mechanized divisions. The TPLF has long believed this command’s officer corps—many of whom, insiders say, are Tigrayan—will not obey Abiy’s orders. Last month, it said it would not accept any changes to the regiment’s leadership or structure, and then it refused to allow new commanders appointed by Abiy to take up their postings.Is Ethiopia Headed for Civil War?
Abiy Ahmed’s military move against the Tigray region could spark a conflict with the party that once dominated Ethiopian politics—and tear the country apart.
It is plausible, as Abiy claims, that the TPLF tried to seize assets belonging to the command. But it is not certain whether this took place before or after federal troops were deployed. A former Tigrayan general in Mekelle, the region’s capital, told me last week that taking such equipment “out of the equation” might be necessary should tensions boil over. A politburo meeting this weekend resulted in “historic decisions” taken to bolster the region’s preparedness, said Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF official, on Twitter. On Sunday the regional president, Debretsion Gebremichael, declared that “if war is imminent, we are prepared not just to resist but to win.”
But it is also apparent that there were significant movements of federal troops in the days preceding Nov. 4. According to a United Nations diplomat, units had been withdrawn from several parts of southern Ethiopia, including the areas of Hararghe and Somali in the southeast, and from the Welega zone in western Oromia region. “[The federal government] will have difficulty convincing anyone worth their salt that this wasn’t pre-planned,” the source said."
The attack on the federal army happened on Nov. 3. So where is the problem? TPLF itself confirms that they have now the hardware of the northern front.
ONLF is on the ground but you are consuming TPLF propaganda. That is the difference.
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