Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Tigray also has no anti tanks, anti aircraft etc. That is why the federal special helicopters and planes are landing without any problem in Mekele right now. Tigray militia is not much different from other Liyu forces except for few automatic weapons. They have also only pick ups. The main difference is TPLF's propaganda to score political bargain points. In fact Tigray Liyu has less combat experience than that of Somali Liyu. Somali Liyu has been in combat with ONLF for many years. But no Liyu militia can come close to the fire power and experience of the federal army.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

So its ENDF+Eritrean forces Vs TPLF

The best thing is for TPLF to withdraw and not fight inside cities and towns but regroup as Guerrilla warfare.

This will make the intruding forces be bogged down.
Isayas has to finish TPLF or else they will organise rebels to topple him.

Also Abye has to finish Tigray to stay relevant in Ethiopia.
But whether Abye wins or not is that he will end up being a puppet of Afaworki.

Ethiopia will be treated by Eritrea just like Ethiopia has been treating Somalia.

This was my prediction in Nov 2020.

TDF took my advice

 

[Calaf]

This was my prediction in Nov 2020.

TDF took my advice

But yet Afawerki is in the same hole as Abiy, a mexican standoff.

 

[Gadhwayne]

@xabashi come back remember even if we disagree I never blame you or any Xabashi for the mistakes of Mengistu I never blame anyone for the mistakes of a dictator from their tribe

@Abba Sadacha or anyone who can give us a different perspective join the discussion

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[reer]

My predictions were right from the start of the war.
That is they would change from conventional warfare to Guarille warfare.

TDF have my respect.

ENDF is destroyed and sending peasants to the front lines will not help.

Amhara ego have been destroyed to the level that their men will be a luaghing stock in entire Ethiopia.

Amhara ysed to laugh at Gurage for being cowards but amhara officially hold it now.

lets be real amxaaro ma iyagaa dagaalyahan ah? this is the 1st time white man officially abandoned them and they are getting a legendary karbash.

 

[digaagjecel]

 

[Kanan]

Tides have turned in short notice. Yesterday we were all very assured TPLF was over and getting ran through in Tigray. I really thought they're over and all this Tigray Genocide trend is out of desperation from an eminent onslaught by ENDF.


I guess Abiye should have killed Deberistion when he had him on sight with the drones following capture of Mekelle

 

[Craftman10]

The next couple of weeks are going to be interesting and decisive in this war, either TDF will push their lines up to main road to Addis Abeba or to one of the major Amhara town ( Gonder maybe Debre Tabor) then shit will hit the fan or the ENDF and all other liyu police forces will repel the TDF to the limit of the Tigray province and then this war may drags on for months, with its consequence of massacres and other atrocities.
Abiy's position will become untenable, all major powers will push him to negotiate.

 

[Kanan]

TPLF are not stupid they're aware any attack on major Amhara city will end the international sympathy to their case and put an end to Genocide narrative. They'll most likely lay a siege on main route to Djibouti.




In no way they're going to push towards Addis Ababa they want to force Abiye into negotiating.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

 

[IbnuAli]

Omg they're slaughtering the f*ck outta each other, this is great, they need to step up the death tolls, 100s of deaths per day is nothing I'm expecting 2k per day by September hopefully, either way their heading in the right direction

 

[mrlog]

he just kept on repeating himself
Nothing substantial
Wouldn’t TDF be weary of an attack on their flank by Eritrea ?

Something fishy is going on, ENDF forces took Mekele previously with ease
How can they all of a sudden catapult

Only explanation is that ENDF previously had external help which was then taken away
And now TDF are getting external help which begs the question why Abiye is not calling this out

 

[ZodiaK]

 

[convincation]

The next couple of weeks are going to be interesting and decisive in this war, either TDF will push their lines up to main road to Addis Abeba or to one of the major Amhara town ( Gonder maybe Debre Tabor) then shit will hit the fan or the ENDF and all other liyu police forces will repel the TDF to the limit of the Tigray province and then this war may drags on for months, with its consequence of massacres and other atrocities.
Abiy's position will become untenable, all major powers will push him to negotiate.

Considering the TDFs aim is capturing Addis Ababa I doubt they would go through gonder but rather through weldiya and dessie

 

[Abba Sadacha]

Abiy's fate is linked with Isayas's fate-both are aware of this, hence why Isayas is mobilizing troops once again to fight the TPLF.
He knows what's at stake here- he cannot afford to have his historical enemies get power in Ethiopia, which is highly unlikely, what they can do is force abiy to negotiate and thus maintain their power in tigray. Which means Isayas will forever have a strong enemy to the south of Eritrea, who he cannot trust and will have to be concerned about.

*There is tension and signs of inter-ethnic violence in the ENDF: Amhara's killed some Oromo generals/colonels, recently, accusing them of giving intelligence to the TPLF, or being ''traitors.''

*OLA is over running bases of the army in the south, such as this one in Guji recently:





Injifanno Ummata Oromo!!

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

@Abba Sadacha why didyou folks give power to Abye without background check?
You guys just trust any one that claims to be oromo and speaks afan oromo?

Abye is straight up naftanya a very dangerous guy thatbwould have committed genocide on oromos had they been successful in Tigray.

Tigray being alive and kicking is a blessing in disguise.

How did amhara kill oromo generals and colonels what were oromos doing for them to be killed by amhara?
I also belive Abye is amhara and his mom was single mother when she married the oromo dude.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

@Abba Sadacha why didyou folks give power to Abye without background check?
You guys just trust any one that claims to be oromo and speaks afan oromo?

Abye is straight up naftanya a very dangerous guy thatbwould have committed genocide on oromos had they been successful in Tigray.

Tigray being alive and kicking is a blessing in disguise.

How did amhara kill oromo generals and colonels what were oromos doing for them to be killed by amhara?
I also belive Abye is amhara and his mom was single mother when she married the oromo dude.

TO BE FAIR, we didn't pick him, the central committee of the EPRDF did.
Many of us backed him, at first, because he was freeing political prisoners, welcoming the OLF back, and so on and so forth. We were fooled, for sure, but many Oromo's weren't, like Jaal Marroo commander of the OLA.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

TO BE FAIR, we didn't pick him, the central committee of the EPRDF did.
Many of us backed him, at first, because he was freeing political prisoners, welcoming the OLF back, and so on and so forth. We were fooled, for sure, but many Oromo's weren't, like Jaal Marroo commander of the OLA.

Dont you learn from hostory like how Mengistu turned on you folks and killed your leaders?

How did you just trust someone that claims to be oromo and was working for TPLF as spy agent for 2 decades.

I dont think anyone who.served TPLF for years have right to talk about and criticise TPLF.funny is when you speak about Abye losing they call you TPLF supporter.

Do you know mustafa omer used to work for the intelligence too.

His latest attachment was Ethiopian embassy in Nairobi.

In 2014 I met his brother and he used to tell me that mustfa used to chill with Shamsudeen who was Ethiopias ambasador.At that time he used to write articles criticising Iley but not TPLF.

 

[World]

The Tigray have a smaller population than Somalis yet they were the ones that destroyed Mengistu’s government and yet again they are destroying Abiy Ahmed’s government. Shame on us. Why are we so weak?

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

The Tigray have a smaller population than Somalis yet they were the ones that destroyed Mengistu’s government and yet again they are destroying Abiy Ahmed’s government. Shame on us. Why are we so weak?

Because the west helped them.
Just look at how coward amhara are running from battle field do you think these guys ruled Ethiopia for 70 years?