Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[Crow]

I just read that Foreign Policy article and wanted to highlight some interesting parts about the TPLF's military situation and Abiy's strategy.

Outline.com

outline.com

Although Tigray is small, it is well armed, and its forces are battle-hardened. Tigray’s regional special forces, which a senior Ethiopian diplomat estimates have grown to at least 20,000 commandos—led by senior Tigrayan officers forced into retirement by Abiy, plus a standing body of reserve special forces made up of military-trained militia and armed farmers—together have an estimated total of up to 250,000 armed fighters. Until recently, however, it lacked the heavy weaponry required to directly confront a fully-equipped division.

Since last week, the TPLF has taken control of half the soldiers from the five divisions of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) Northern Command that remain in Tigray—meaning it has gained 15,000 soldiers, according to three sources: a senior Ethiopian diplomat briefed on the latest developments, a senior retired intelligence officer in Tigray who continues to work for the TPLF, and a source in Tigray monitoring the situation. But the seizure of Ethiopian military hardware and equipment has heightened the importance of logistical supplies for the TPLF, which will inevitably depend on Sudan’s stance.

From the beginning, it was clear that Abiy was intent on provocation, but he did not anticipate the TPLF could supplant an entire military command. In late October, a week before the TPLF took control of the remaining Northern Command in Tigray, Abiy created a new regional command in Ethiopia’s Amhara state, with the two divisions of the Northern Command already stationed in Amhara slated to be transferred into its ranks.

The Northern Command comprises eight of the ENDF’s 32 divisions. Three of them have been stationed outside of Tigray for two years, since Abiy expanded the operational area of the Northern Command: a tank division in the north of Ethiopia’s Afar state and two divisions in Amhara. Military maneuvers against Tigray are now underway on three fronts: from Eritrea, Afar, and Amhara, with Eritrea and Amhara being used in an attempt to cut the TPLF off from Sudan.

On Nov. 1, a few days after Abiy created the new command, Burhan flew to see him in Addis Ababa with the director-general of Sudan’s intelligence service and the head of military intelligence. It was announced that they would strengthen control of the Ethiopia-Sudan border, suggesting that Abiy was trying to completely encircle Tigray before a premeditated confrontation with the TPLF.

According to sources in both Tigray and the Ethiopian government, soldiers in divisions of the ENDF Northern Command in Tigray have in the past week split into three groups: half aligned with the TPLF, one-quarter—Abiy loyalists and mostly ethnic Amhara officers—fled into Eritrea, and the rest refused to fight against the federal army and have been contained in barracks. The sources in Tigray were able to speak with us intermittently over satellite Internet, circumventing the telecommunications shutdown Abiy has imposed there.

 

[Crow]

The article also had an interesting part about the UAE that might be of interest.

On Nov. 6, the Emirati foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan noted the UAE’s “solidarity” with “friendly countries in their war against” terrorism—suggesting alignment with Abiy and Isaias against the TPLF.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

The article also had an interesting part about the UAE that might be of interest.

It makes it clear that Egypt and the UAE are on the opposing sides in this conflict. So far Sudan is taking Egypt's side as it has more to gain from close long-term military and economic cooperation with its immediate neighbor, Egypt. Besides, Sudan is tired of the marauding Amhara military bands on its side of the border.

Egypt-Sudan eye cross border railway network

Railway discussions follow increased engagement and coordination over Egyptian dispute with Ethiopia over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

www.al-monitor.com

 

[AbdiGeedi]

That changes everything

It also looks like Egypt told the UAE to f*ck off in Libya as there is an active political reconciliation process taking place in that country at the moment. They are even set to hold nationwide elections by the end of 2021. This wouldn't be possible without Egypt's blessing and it is done at the UAE's expense.

Libyans agree on plan to hold elections in 18 months, UN says

Acting UN envoy Stephanie Williams called the agreement a "breakthrough."

www.al-monitor.com

 

[Mehmet]

It also looks like Egypt told the UAE to f*ck off in Libya as there is an active political reconciliation process taking place in that country at the moment. They are even set to hold nationwide elections by the end of 2021. This wouldn't be possible without Egypt's blessing and it is done at the UAE's expense.

Libyans agree on plan to hold elections in 18 months, UN says

Acting UN envoy Stephanie Williams called the agreement a "breakthrough."

www.al-monitor.com

Yeah cause turkey won that battle there and cairo is changing their stance

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Yeah cause turkey won that battle there and cairo is changing their stance

As a matter of fact, Turkey and Egypt are in secret talks to improve and possibly normalize their relationship. I think the move was initiated by Turkey. I don't see it happening though until Sisi or Erdogan is gone.

Recently, however, signals of a possible reconciliation have come from both countries, particularly due to the changing dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Turkey-Greece crisis over the region’s energy resources.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu have both confirmed that intelligence units on both sides have recently met.

“It is not that we are not meeting with Egypt. There are meetings at the intelligence levels,” Çavuşoğlu said in a televised interview back in September.

“We have to be realistic. For us to have a deal with Egypt, we must maintain good relations with them.”

Confrontation to reconciliation: Can East Med energy talks thaw Turkey-Egypt ties? | Column

Diplomatic relations between Turkey and Egypt hit rock bottom in 2013 when Egypt’s first democratically elected president, Mohammad Morsi, was toppled by...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[Mehmet]

As a matter of fact, Turkey and Egypt are in secret talks to improve and possible normalize their relationship. I think the move was initiated by Turkey. I don't see it happening though until Sisi or Erdogan is gone.

Yeah this can go good or sour

 

[Prime Minister]

It's reached the point that western media is calling it a civil war so @Django and the rest were ahead in predicting it.

Ethiopia’s civil war becomes regional as missiles strike Eritrea’s capital

The missiles are suspected of having been launched by the leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region

www.telegraph.co.uk

Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War

As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed goes to war against Ethiopia’s former rulers—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—Khartoum’s moves will determine whether the conflict remains a local…

foreignpolicy.com

 

[kickz]

 

[xabashi]

Meanwhile foreigners are leaving Mekele putting their flags on trucks before the 24h deadline expires. Things are coming to the end very fast and the storm to Mekele is imminent.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Refugees who fled to Sudan from Tigray tell their witness accounts.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

The IC is slowly turning against the fascist, Abiy!

"Nobel Prize License to Kill

Civil war and a humanitarian crisis is raging in Ethiopia, but “luckily” for the country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year. That prize gives him a license to get away with murder.

Western media reports on the conflict which has flared up over the past week routinely refer to Abiy as a Nobel laureate. That gives his claims credibility even when he is telling lies. It gives his actions legitimacy even they are crimes against humanity."

Nobel Prize License to Kill

Civil war and a humanitarian crisis is raging in Ethiopia, but “luckily” for the country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year. That prize gives him a license to get away with murder.

sputniknews.com

 

[AbdiGeedi]

 

[SOULSEARCHING]

Eriteria has been attacked too.

 

[Karim]

 

[Ferrari]

@Ferrari @Django tell this mofo to pause his mad fictional fantasies of arming Liyuu Police and fighting the Ethiopian federal Army. What an imbecile.
Cagjar sides with Abiy and the Somali State is safe from all these intra Habesha wars in Tigray. The people of Ogadenia have suffered enough bloodshed and cruelty, now it's their time to prosper and move forward from darker past.

when I went back in the summer, i walked around region a lot. I found this one place in shiniile(ciise and dir gobol) where 600 MZ got killed in a single night, and only 90 men survived out a whole guuto numbering near the thousand. Doollo region is littered with makaahiil graves, qalbidhagax's family lost 16 people to the struggle, they have a family grave, the two former ugaases of makaahiil are buried in there as well. That's without mentioning the damages caused by Somalis inside somalia, so yea, ain't no fight left in OGs. Somali gableed will only be free when others join the cause, and it's going to take a lot more than 3000 niggas that this nigga @Galmudug-State proposed.

 

[Marsin]

Seems like Sudan has dispute with amharas about agricultural lands at the border, Abiy went to Sudan prime minister and asked for the disputed area to be handed to Amhara regional state and got a f*ck off response, he came back empty handed and it is believed that Abiy promised the amharas this agricultural land before they went to war with Tigray.
This might anger the amharas.

Sudan Will Decide the Outcome of the Ethiopian Civil War

As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed goes to war against Ethiopia’s former rulers—the Tigray People’s Liberation Front—Khartoum’s moves will determine whether the conflict remains a local…

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Libaax-Joore]

 

[Libaax-Joore]

 

[Apollo]

The absolute mad men Tigrayans are now aiming rockets at Eritrea. Provoking Africa's North Korea to join the conflict.

These guys are mad.