Confederation Is the Only Viable Solution for Somalia
- Thread starter FBIsomalia
- Start date
yes,it will happen but we have problems of Eelays and jarersss joining Alshababab terror group and wreaking havoc on the ethnic somalis.
A confederation is a group of sovereign states. Usually it's either a first temporary step towards more centralization or the last step towards complete separation of the member states. What you are proposing is pretty much Puntland independence and the disgregation of Somalia as a country so just say it as it is. I'm not a strict centralist, I'd favour an equal federal system like Germany or a UAE type system. The main issue is that in our region federalism hardly works and often fuels division. Just look at Ethiopia's federal system, they are at each other's throats constantly
balanbalis
"Ignore" button warrior
The problem is Somalia is too large and the qabiils too antagonistic, confederation (Aka the United States of Somalia) is the only choice
Ashraf
ππ«π πππ π ππππππΈπ΄πͺ½
Social cohesion is decimated, if confederation was established youβd see almost all states seceded or use it as a bargaining chip whenever thereβs politic deadlock. Somalis back home home lack the intellectual capacity to establish it in good faith it would just legitimise and indigenise clan fiefdoms.+ IC isnβt gonna accept a bunch of Somali states at the UN. Federalism also hasnβt been implemented as it should thereβs not even a high court itβs been sabotaged from the start. Imo centralism is too detrimental, regardless of if the leader was a noble and honest one jahils back home will only see a foreign adversary. The only viable alternative is to end the 4.5 structure, and pursue real federalism. Under which 1)secessionism is banned under the constitution. 2) Curbing FMS powers is illegal. 3) Gov, roles are defined clearly. ( Foreign policy, defence, education) mainly. 4) Two term limit and 5) anti corruption court.
confederation is one of the worst systems of government and leads to secession over time anyway as one can see in the last days of the soviet union or yugoslavia, in fact what we have now is kind of a confederation and one can see how this is working. it has to be either partition so that one can hopefully built several functional states or one federal state akin to US or even switzerland.
The only earnest argument I could think of is that since Puntland formed decades before FGS, it shouldn't have to be shackled to Mogadishu and be allowed to remain autonomous. Sort of like Hong Kong. No one is seriously going to think Puntland will be a separate country but due to its unique circumstances it can't simply be labelled as a federal state either.
Regions get special treatment if there's if they have certain characteristics that male them very different from the rest of the country. Just having established a state in 1998 isn't enough. Hong Kong is autonomous because it was a British colony untill 1997 and the economy, politics and people's history was just too different to integrate with mainland china. If we allow PL to get special treatment then all other fms will ask the same
My question to PL folks is if they care about somali unity and what benefits Somalia or if they only care about PL. If you only care about PL and don't care about the rest of the country then why don't you explicitly adopt separatism just like isaaqland? I'm not even saying this to attack you , those who want PL independence should just say it
Puntlanders are pretty much the only ones who constantly push for greater autonomy, the rest of the FMS either don't care or aren't in a position to ask for special privilege given their instability. Its honestly better to give Puntland the degree of autonomy they desire, they will still be apart of Somalia at the end of the day but won't feel marginalized or held down by Mogadishu. The same deal can be given to Somaliland as well.
So how will this confederacy look like ?
how'd it go from federation to confederation? lmfaooo you guys are not slick
we should honestly look upon switzerland as an example of how to implement proper federalism in somalia
There's no federation or confederation.
Hawiye leadership has been circling the globe looking for support/money, weapons, mercenaries, etc to take down the rest of the country by force. Why do people even pretend there's some shared state building effort. Some people are building federal states and the FGS is trying to pick them apart.
First, do people understand what a confederacy is? You want a confederacy where the central government has both currency and defense control? That just seems like the loosest form of a federation. The confederation you've outlined would probably make the SFG stronger than it is now in its current form.
In a confederal government, the central government is weaker than its federal members. This leads to governmental gridlock. Moreover, confederal-style governments almost always become more centralized over time, as we've seen in both the United States and the European Union, because fragmented states struggle to deal with economic or defense threats. Alternatively, as history has shown, they fall apart violently.
One of the biggest problems with the federal government is precisely that it is so weak. Its budget is funded by donors, not taxes. Letβs not forget that the same people angry that the federal government doesnβt invest in their specific region are the same ones who would fight tooth and nail to avoid paying even a single cent in taxes to the FGS.
Thereβs something exhausting about all of this. The federal model was designed during a very different time without consulting 90% of the population, and it has caused pain across the country. Every clan wanted its own little federal state with its own president, and since then we've had these pseudo-4.5 systems, where clans subdivide power among themselves within these paper states. And while I donβt want to repeat myself, removing the courts was one of the biggest mistakes in modern Somali history. It created a system where there are losers and winners, where entire gobols are claimed by clans and presidency usurped aswell.
Honestly, advocating for outright balkanization is a more consistent and intellectually honest position. I donβt agree with it, but I can understand the arguments.
I believe in a unified Somalia because such a state has the best chance of challenging our neighboring countries and protecting the interests of the Somali people.
In a confederal government, the central government is weaker than its federal members. This leads to governmental gridlock. Moreover, confederal-style governments almost always become more centralized over time, as we've seen in both the United States and the European Union, because fragmented states struggle to deal with economic or defense threats. Alternatively, as history has shown, they fall apart violently.
One of the biggest problems with the federal government is precisely that it is so weak. Its budget is funded by donors, not taxes. Letβs not forget that the same people angry that the federal government doesnβt invest in their specific region are the same ones who would fight tooth and nail to avoid paying even a single cent in taxes to the FGS.
Thereβs something exhausting about all of this. The federal model was designed during a very different time without consulting 90% of the population, and it has caused pain across the country. Every clan wanted its own little federal state with its own president, and since then we've had these pseudo-4.5 systems, where clans subdivide power among themselves within these paper states. And while I donβt want to repeat myself, removing the courts was one of the biggest mistakes in modern Somali history. It created a system where there are losers and winners, where entire gobols are claimed by clans and presidency usurped aswell.
Honestly, advocating for outright balkanization is a more consistent and intellectually honest position. I donβt agree with it, but I can understand the arguments.
I believe in a unified Somalia because such a state has the best chance of challenging our neighboring countries and protecting the interests of the Somali people.
This would have actually led to more separatism and possibly independence. PL kicked extremists out of Bosaso, there is no world in which an Islamist led government in the south is accepted.
Trending
-
-
Finally The World Will Start Shaming Arabs For Cousin Marriages π€’π€’π€’
- Started by Hmohamed54
- Replies: 111
