Demographic divergence in Somalia began 15 years ago

[Thegoodshepherd]

As early as 15 years ago, UNICEF was noting the same pattern that appeared in their 2020 health and demographic survey. It was small with NorthWest, i.e Somaliland, at a TFR of 5.9 while Somalia as a whole was at 6.7. Already in 2006, Somaliland's fertility rate was falling behind that of Somalia as whole. Somalia's overall TFR has stayed the same over the past 21 years going from 6.8 in 1999 to 6.9 in 2020.

I would have not guessed that you would be able to see a 12% divergence in fertility between Somaliland and the rest of Somalia as early as 2006. I did guess that their demographic transition started sometime around 2005, but I now think it must have been earlier probably around 2000. This process is already 20 years old. Very surprised to see the same pattern so early in the game.

12% is a significant figure, considering that Somaliland now has a TFR 25% lower than the Somalia average, meaning that half of the present day's differential fertility was already present as early as 2006!

https://mics-surveys-prod.s3.amazon...alia/2006/Final/Somalia 2006 MICS_English.pdf

 

[Odayga_Jabuuti]

The higher the birth rate the higher the economic growth has to be.
If your country has a birth rate of 7 like Somalia, you need 6% gdp growth rate (like Niger), but Somalia is barely making 3.
Plus, there are 2 crisis now. Covid-19 and Political crisis, let's not forget that the government only controls the capital.
With all the global warming changes that are happening, the country won't be able to sustain itself. 7 kids per woman is tooo much.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The higher the birth rate the higher the economic growth has to be.
If your country has a birth rate of 7 like Somalia, you need 6% gdp growth rate (like Niger), but Somalia is barely making 3.
Plus, there are 2 crisis now. Covid-19 and Political crisis, let's not forget that the government only controls the capital.
With all the global warming changes that are happening, the country won't be able to sustain itself. 7 kids per woman is tooo much.

Quite right. You want to have your TFR decline in order to get more per capita income growth. In a place like Djibouti, a fairly stable country without any enemies, you can afford to reduce fertility. Djibouti today has a fertility rate only 1/3 that of Somalia.

In dog-eat-dog Somalia, you cannot afford to reduce fertility before your enemy has because it would lead to a divergence that can then give your enemy a huge advantage in manpower.

You need political stability or fertility transition in one group will weaken that group’s power vs its enemies.

 

[Odayga_Jabuuti]

Quite right. You want to have your TFR decline in order to get more per capita income growth. In a place like Djibouti, a fairly stable country without any enemies, you can afford to reduce fertility. Djibouti today has a fertility rate only 1/3 that of Somalia.

In dog-eat-dog Somalia, you cannot afford to reduce fertility before your enemy has because it would lead to a divergence that can then give your enemy a huge advantage in manpower.

You need political stability or fertility transition in one group will weaken that group’s power vs its enemies.

Djibouti birth rate is at 2.71 and its decreasing, so Djibouti do not need to worry about demographics.
However, you cannot minimize birth rates by telling people to stop having kids. The best way to do it is to give people a better standard of living, which needs a high gdp growth rate. If you don't get a high gdp growth rate, then your citizens will keep on having kids, its a vicious cycle.

Today, high population doesn't mean anything. A small country with a small population can produce more money than big countries. Look at Singapore it's just a city, but it produces more money than Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti combined (almost 200 million people) with only 5.7 million people.
What matters is the state of your economy.

 

[Gadhwayne]

Different fertility rates but nothing that shows clan fertility rates. The only thing we can surmise is that Haawiye are growing much faster than both Isaaq and MJ

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[Apollo]

We need to give free scholarships all the way to university education to Somali Bantu and Benadiri women.

While ethnic Somali women should not be allowed to go past elementary school.

Kkkkkkkkkk.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Djibouti birth rate is at 2.71 and its decreasing, so Djibouti do not need to worry about demographics.
However, you cannot minimize birth rates by telling people to stop having kids. The best way to do it is to give people a better standard of living, which needs a high gdp growth rate. If you don't get a high gdp growth rate, then your citizens will keep on having kids, its a vicious cycle.

Today, high population doesn't mean anything. A small country with a small population can produce more money than big countries. Look at Singapore it's just a city, but it produces more money than Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti combined (almost 200 million people) with only 5.7 million people.
What matters is the state of your economy.

In tribal conflict, such as in Somalia, the size of the contesting tribes matters quite a lot. How many technicals can a tribe field depends on how many people it can collect qaraan from and how whether it controls a port. The number of technicals a clan state can field is proportional the the number of people such a clan encompasses. Somalia is a preindustrial society, numbers matter there more than anywhere else in the world.

 

[Odayga_Jabuuti]

In tribal conflict, such as in Somalia, the size of the contesting tribes matters quite a lot. How many technicals can a tribe field depends on how many people it can collect qaraan from and how whether it controls a port. The number of technicals a clan state can field is proportional the the number of people such a clan encompasses. Somalia is a preindustrial society, numbers matter there more than anywhere else in the world.

Yes Somalia is not a country, a nation is an idea and it doesn't work if people do not believe in it.
Modern nation states have been imposed on somalis by the europeans.
Somalis do not know what a country is, they still want to live in tribal societies.

 

[convincation]

Central south at 7.1 seems understandable. I have an uncle with 17 kids, originally 23 but 5 unfortunately passed away.

 

[Nes]

Different fertility rates but nothing that shows clan fertility rates. The only thing we can surmise is that Haawiye are growing much faster than both Isaaq and MJ

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Dhulbahante have the highest fertility rate in Somalia at 7.9 most hawiye are now living in Mogadishu that comes with a price urbanization decreases fertility darood will soon become larger than isaaq and hawiye put together.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

@El Nino reer GM mass migrating to xamar will have massive effects in the coming decades

 

[Tiyeglow]

@El Nino reer GM mass migrating to xamar will have massive effects in the coming decades

Is this actually a thing (mass migration of GM/HS to Xamar)? So these states are essentially flyovers similar to the Midwest in US.

What about their reer Baadiye, those who are from smaller towns, those who have a stake in Dhusamareeb, Jowhar, Galkayo? Surely it cannot be that much abandonment for Xamar.

If they actually dilapidate their place of origin, then that is such a foolish and asinine strategy. Reer Baadiye (population growth) and xool dhaqato (livestock) is the bread and basket of our economy. The irony being that those in Xamar, Hargeisa often joke that PL is a desert without any significant population - we will see who gets the last laugh, to put your eggs into the basket of urbanisation or to balance our livestock economy + urban economy

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Is this actually a thing (mass migration of GM/HS to Xamar)? So these states are essentially flyovers similar to the Midwest in US.

What about their reer Baadiye, those who are from smaller towns, those who have a stake in Dhusamareeb, Jowhar, Galkayo? Surely it cannot be that much abandonment for Xamar.

If they actually dilapidate their place of origin, then that is such a foolish and asinine strategy. Reer Baadiye (population growth) and xool dhaqato (livestock) is the bread and basket of our economy. The irony being that those in Xamar, Hargeisa often joke that PL is a desert without any significant population - we will see who gets the last laugh, to put your eggs into the basket of urbanisation or to balance our livestock economy + urban economy

It’s a real phenomenon I thought it was well known that xamar population is booming due to migration from GM HS and KGS especially lower shabelle

if you look at it it makes sense people would urbanize where there is the most opportunity

 

[El Nino]

@El Nino reer GM mass migrating to xamar will have massive effects in the coming decades

100%. Hopefully in the future things change, atm things are stable (TFR) wise.

Dhulbahante have the highest fertility rate in Somalia at 7.9 most hawiye are now living in Mogadishu that comes with a price urbanization decreases fertility darood will soon become larger than isaaq and hawiye put together.

Urbanisation will affect all somalis, not just specific clans. Only clans who inhabit relatively good land (rain, soil etc) will be less affected. In practice, this means clans that can farm on their land which is not that many. Drought is increasing urbanisation as nomads can’t longer support themselves.

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

100%. Hopefully in the future things change, atm things are stable (TFR) wise.




Urbanisation will affect all somalis, not just specific clans. Only clans who inhabit relatively good land (rain, soil etc) will be less affected. In practice, this means clans that can farm on their land which is not that many. Drought is increasing urbanisation as nomads can’t longer support themselves.

Nobody is safe tbh although urbanization and it’s effects are happening faster in some regions then other for example xamar hargeisa and bosaso etc