Deni is to go to Xamar for talks on completion of the constitution, confirmed by the UN’s new representative to Somalia

[Gaandheri]

Let me correct you, Deni is in Garowe and not in Bosaso. Secondly PL wants to negotiate separately with FGS on matters related to completing the constitution and separation of powers. Deni already appointed a committee, Nothing new; their position is: We can't accept what other states signed before and other framework agreement should be signed between PL & FGS. So if IC is praising that PL are ready to negotiate, they will also encourage FGS to enter negotiations with PL.
All I see is what I predicted before, there will be a different agreement between FGS & PL, which will give PL a different status than other states. But that's a nightmare scenario for you, you don't want to see PL having more powers than other states, but it will happen; those states gave most of their powers to FGS, PL on the other hand will not do that.

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What @bidenkulaha doesn’t get is puntland wants confederation not federalism. This NCC was doomed from the beginning shabab still controls much of the central/south.

 

[bidenkulaha]

O

Let me correct you, Deni is in Garowe and not in Bosaso. Secondly PL wants to negotiate separately with FGS on matters related to completing the constitution and separation of powers. Deni already appointed a committee, Nothing new; their position is: We can't accept what other states signed before and other framework agreement should be signed between PL & FGS. So if IC is praising that PL are ready to negotiate, they will also encourage FGS to enter negotiations with PL.
All I see is what I predicted before, there will be a different agreement between FGS & PL, which will give PL a different status than other states. But that's a nightmare scenario for you, you don't want to see PL having more powers than other states, but it will happen; those states gave most of their powers to FGS, PL on the other hand will not do that.

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I am not worried about this happening. HSM has said it’s a redline to treat PL on a different constitutional level. Any agreement reached with PL will affect all other states. Not as if there’s any option given other states will pull out and 4 is more important 1. Deni however isn’t in a strong position given constitution’s completion is going to happen, with or without him. Garowe 1 and 2 isn’t happening

The biggest thing however for HSM is to include Banadir as effectively a FMS by allowing it within the share of FMS aid, federalisation etc. Which is why I’m so supportive of this process.

 

[bidenkulaha]

What @bidenkulaha doesn’t get is puntland wants confederation not federalism. This NCC was doomed from the beginning shabab still controls much of the central/south.

IC doesn’t support con-federalism. There’d rather centralise Somalia and deal with PL and Somaliland later once FGS dominates financially and eventually brings them in.

Resources law, fisheries law, income tax law, federalisation of courts which PL oppose are written by the IMF which is part of the 10 ‘disagreements’ PL has with FGS constitution/NCC agreements

 

[bidenkulaha]

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@warside wariya forget my PL vs fgs takes, be honest do you not agree that the momentum for completing the constitution and debt relief is very strong for this year.

 

[Gaandheri]

IC doesn’t support con-federalism. There’d rather centralise Somalia and deal with PL and Somaliland later once FGS dominates financially and eventually brings them in.

Resources law, fisheries law, income tax law, federalisation of courts which PL oppose are written by the IMF which is part of the 10 ‘disagreements’ PL has with FGS constitution/NCC agreements

your wrong IC wishes to see a fragmented Somalia worse than confederation.

 

[warside]

@warside wariya forget my PL vs fgs takes, be honest do you not agree that the momentum for completing the constitution and debt relief is very strong for this year.

I don't think the constitution will be completed without PL, but you think that HSM can go ahead and complete it without PL. Dept relief is possible since most of conditions were met, one of the remaining conditions is they want all ports to take the same taxes, PL is not against that and agreed to it with the previous administration, but now FGS wants that all ports should be in their hands, JL said yes, PL is against it.

 

[TekNiKo]

Welcome back @bidenkulaha

 

[bidenkulaha]

I don't think the constitution will be completed without PL, but you think that HSM can go ahead and complete it without PL. Dept relief is possible since most of conditions were met, one of the remaining conditions is they want all ports to take the same taxes, PL is not against that and agreed to it with the previous administration, but now FGS wants that all ports should be in their hands, JL said yes, PL is against it.

Well completing debt relief does also affect PL’s willingness to come to the table. We’re talking access to a lot of money over the next few years. If PL does a SL, then the FGS will push ahead with investment in the South ignoring them. Financially that is potentially disastrous for PL.

regardless like I said ignore my take on whether FGS completes it without PL. There’s ofc potential FGS move on some points to get PL to accept but we can’t rule out that even if FGS moves, PL will still be against the fundamentals like Banadir effectively becoming a FMS and sharing revenue with others, as well as the equalising of all FMS despite their size till a census is completed etc.

From what I can see there’s a push from IC for PL rejoin NCC and start talks with FGS on constitution. Endless talks with no conclusion isn’t in the point for that pressure, it’s so we can complete it as it’s what the US, EU themselves want.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

I don't think the constitution will be completed without PL, but you think that HSM can go ahead and complete it without PL. Dept relief is possible since most of conditions were met, one of the remaining conditions is they want all ports to take the same taxes, PL is not against that and agreed to it with the previous administration, but now FGS wants that all ports should be in their hands, JL said yes, PL is against it.

Why even agree on the same taxes on the ports? Competition is good for the consumer. Handing of ports to these thugs is laughable.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Why even agree on the same taxes on the ports? Competition is good for the consumer. Handing of ports to these thugs is laughable.

To stop illicit goods coming into Somalia, FGS needs to control ports.

Also for foreign states not to take advantage of us, we also need the same taxes across Somalia otherwise you’ll have a competition to the bottom when it comes to taxes

 

[warside]

Well completing debt relief does also affect PL’s willingness to come to the table. We’re talking access to a lot of money over the next few years. If PL does a SL, then the FGS will push ahead with investment in the South ignoring them. Financially that is potentially disastrous for PL.

regardless like I said ignore my take on whether FGS completes it without PL. There’s ofc potential FGS move on some points to get PL to accept but we can’t rule out that even if FGS moves, PL will still be against the fundamentals like Banadir effectively becoming a FMS and sharing revenue with others, as well as the equalising of all FMS despite their size till a census is completed etc.

From what I can see there’s a push from IC for PL rejoin NCC and start talks with FGS on constitution. Endless talks with no conclusion isn’t in the point for that pressure, it’s so we can complete it as it’s what the US, EU themselves want.

PL wants negotiations on the constitution, Deni named a committee for that, and he wants negotiations to be outside of NCC, he met with the committee today. NCC is a council where leaders meet and not suitable for technical negotiations. Will FGS name a similar committee for negotiations? probably IC will pressure them to do that.

Garoowe: 11 June 2023: Madaxweynaha Dowladda Puntland Mudane Siciid Cabdullaahi Deni, ayaa kulan la qaatay Guddiga Diyaarinta Wada xaajoodka Arrimaha Federaaleynta Dalka, oo ka kooban Goleyaasha Dowladda, Siyaasiyiin hore, Aqoonyahan iyo xubno ka mid ah Ururada Bulshada .

 

[warside]

Why even agree on the same taxes on the ports? Competition is good for the consumer. Handing of ports to these thugs is laughable.

They want us to behave as one country, for example if we signed a trade agreement with other countries it should not matter which port is which.

 

[bidenkulaha]

PL wants negotiations on the constitution, Deni named a committee for that, and he wants negotiations to be outside of NCC, he met with the committee today. NCC is a council where leaders meet and not suitable for technical negotiations. Will FGS name a similar committee for negotiations? probably IC will pressure them to do that.

There’s nothing technical left to negotiate over. I was listening to an interview with one of the previous members of the constitutional team and they said there’s 9 outstanding political agreements needed of which each has 3 distinct options for the constitution to be completed. 90% of the constitution was done before these NCC agreements and the ‘technical’ part has been completed over the past few parliaments and the IC have invested hundreds of millions into it.

Also there’s rumours of another IC delegation is heading to Garowe tomorrow to pressure Deni. HSM seems to have the stronger hand among the IC which isn’t a surprise as he is the President and can leverage the Villa seat which has far more importance to them.

 

[FBIsomalia]

There’s not going to be elections in Nugaal till Deni announces he’s stepping down in January or going to allow for 66 MP election.

AraanJaan have Nugaal on lock. Hence why Deni has fled Garowe and is operating in Bosaso PMPF base.

Regardless the elections will happen even if they only happen in Baydhabo, Marka, Xudur and Barawe for KGS. And Kismayo, Afmadow for JL. PL proved IC will welcome partial 1m1v elections where a whole region is missing and there’s whole militias shooting up ballot boxes and security forces meant to guard elections.

 

[warside]

There’s nothing technical left to negotiate over. I was listening to an interview with one of the previous members of the constitutional team and they said there’s 9 outstanding political agreements needed of which each has 3 distinct options for the constitution to be completed. 90% of the constitution was done before these NCC agreements and the ‘technical’ part has been completed over the past few parliaments and the IC have invested hundreds of millions into it.

Also there’s rumours of another IC delegation is heading to Garowe tomorrow to pressure Deni. HSM seems to have the stronger hand among the IC which isn’t a surprise as he is the President and can leverage the Villa seat which has far more importance to them.

Deni is ready for negotiations and is meeting with the committee he named for that purpose, FGS on the other hand wants to wait until his term is over. IC wants negotiations to happen now, and Deni said I'm ready, he doesn't need more pressure. IC has more leverage on FGS, since they bankroll it, so they will tell FGS to name a similar committee for negotiations.

 

[warside]

regardless like I said ignore my take on whether FGS completes it without PL. There’s ofc potential FGS move on some points to get PL to accept but we can’t rule out that even if FGS moves, PL will still be against the fundamentals like Banadir effectively becoming a FMS and sharing revenue with others, as well as the equalising of all FMS despite their size till a census is completed etc.

Banadir will share revenue with others if Khaatumo also shares the revenue, Banadir status for you = Khaatumo status for us.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Banadir will share revenue with others if Khaatumo also shares the revenue, Banadir status for you = Khaatumo status for us.

We have too many states. Adding Banadir was enough. Y’all can absorb Khaatumo tho

 

[FBIsomalia]

Deni is ready for negotiations and is meeting with the committee he named for that purpose, FGS on the other hand wants to wait until his term is over. IC wants negotiations to happen now, and Deni said I'm ready, he doesn't need more pressure. IC has more leverage on FGS, since they bankroll it, so they will tell FGS to name a similar committee for negotiations.

Your points were mention by UN representer in Somalia start from 3:05

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I don't think the constitution will be completed without PL, but you think that HSM can go ahead and complete it without PL. Dept relief is possible since most of conditions were met, one of the remaining conditions is they want all ports to take the same taxes, PL is not against that and agreed to it with the previous administration, but now FGS wants that all ports should be in their hands, JL said yes, PL is against it.

The international community can pressure Puntland into negotiating with the FGS, but there is no way of having Puntland accept the constitutional changes Culusow would like to make. Puntland has no objection to fiscal federalism as long as there is no cross state transfers. Puntland sends $1 to FGS, FGS send back $1.

What does it matter if he comes to a meeting before or after, he’ll capitulate eventually or the FGS will move on. I’d rather Deni didn’t even go to Xamar and we moved on like we have from Somaliland and pick y’all’s MPs for you. But unfortunately Deni has realised given we’re moving on anyway, he only has two options declare independence and have no political future in Somalia (as well as anyone from PL) or quickly get to Xamar and sign the papers.

It’s funny how y’all are effectively celebrating a consolation goal

Somalia can move forward in finalizing the constitution without Somaliland, as there is a parallel negotiation taking place. This is what happened in 2012. Somalia cannot move forward with finalizing the constitution without Puntland as Puntland is too large a state to be bypassed. It is also a FMS that is not seeking secession and that is arguing in good faith.

If you think Puntland will agree to having an election commission based in Xamar conduct its state and local elections, you have been eating too much cambuulo.