Do you think Shabab will take over the south and when? I believe the FGS will never win a fight with Shabab until they take it seriously. They are playing cat and mouse, and one of them needs to succeed.
Do you belive shabab will take the south?
- Thread starter Wild daisy ๐๐ป๐ฎ
- Start date
If they did that'd spell trouble. Unless the FGS weakens politically or ATMIS fully withdraws without a strong military, Al-Shabab could expand its influence, Though, Full Control, still remains Doubtful.
They control large chunks of the south and theyโre able to exert authority in FGS controlled areas. All of that wouldnโt be possible if they didnโt enjoy support amongst the local people there.
They govern efficiently compared to FGS. They got no tribalism. Even SL isnโt able to tune down tribalism. Whole Somalia is impossible. But if FGS continues on this corrupted ways that theyโve been for 19+ years. AS will takeover definetly. Shacab are getting tired of this useless government.
EritreanPost_
Inactive
FGS don't have a strong air force and artillery because they refuse to have good relations with Africa largest arms supplier like Russia and China.
Al Shabab is like cartel in Somalia, they have an underground network with spies and tax collectors.
The Somali army need to be strengthened, peace deal with AS shouldn't be avoided
or option to put a hard embargo on AS controlled territories like Ethiopia did to TPLF to prevent fuel, money and weapons to get in their territory
Al Shabab is like cartel in Somalia, they have an underground network with spies and tax collectors.
The Somali army need to be strengthened, peace deal with AS shouldn't be avoided
or option to put a hard embargo on AS controlled territories like Ethiopia did to TPLF to prevent fuel, money and weapons to get in their territory
Maybe. Its going to be very difficult for Shabab to take over all of the south since they number at 7000-12000 troops and are pretty much rejected by most Somalis. People forget that AS is very weak nowadays compared to how they were in the early 2010s.
Of course FGS can't do anything against AS either so we will likely continue seeing a stalemate and more tug of war stuff.
Of course FGS can't do anything against AS either so we will likely continue seeing a stalemate and more tug of war stuff.
Somalia should go from pro-west to pro-east. But then i guess they wouldnโt be getting free aid.
This all changes when FGS gets oil revenue. They should keep minimum stalemate. But very best keep the fronts open. Until they start drilling for oil. If HSM had any brain he would do what madobe wanted. To open up fronts everywhere. AS should be on the defensive constantly. Huge fronts should be opened. They should even try bombing some parts of Jilib. To make them stressed. Everything should be used on warfares
Just hope HSM doesn't try to extend. That is the worst thing that can happen.
