EritreanPost_
Inactive
This doesn’t work like you think.Somewhat yes Ethiopia would just have to blitzkrieg through middle jubba and lower shabelle, Gedo, Bakool, Bay is basically part of Ethiopia it’s controlled by even non ATMIS ENDF.
If Ethiopia starts a war with Somalia and uses its alleged military presence and military upperhand to attack Somalia.
Ethiopia would get a lot of problems. Ethiopia would get international condemnation and Ethiopia would be seen as the aggressor.
Especially the Muslim world would side with Somalia. This would harm Ethiopia‘s image through the out the world.
Somalia could not only invite Egypt and Turkey to intervene. Imagine if Somalia would support pirates or militias attacking Ethiopian cargos. Somalia could itself could missile Ethiopian cargos or block them from entering Somalias sea coast.
Even if Somalia itself doesn’t have a strong navy.
Somalia is also too large for Ethiopia to invade. Ethiopia already invaded Somalia in 2006 and this was very risky. The only reason why the had success is because of the transitional government that cooperated with the Ethiopian invaders.
Ethiopia couldn’t do the same if they have 100% resistance from the Somali people.
and the Ogaden Somalis wouldn’t support such war.