Ethiopia to get new deliveries of SU-35s soon

[Zak12]

Its funny seeing Abiy think he's the African Putin. He invades, gets Ethiopia caught in yet another costly war which leads to international condemnation and sanctions and Ethiopia's economy goes further down the toilet. He is a basket case.

 

[Zak12]

its that this dude is really bad at managing an economy.

This is very much the case, Abiy is too incompetent to utilize Ethiopias's natural resources and massive population. Other landlocked countries like Hungary and Kazakhstan have GDPs much bigger than Ethiopia so there isn't any excuse for Abiy. Having a port only matters if you are trying to be a regional power, otherwise you can still theoretically have a strong economy even while being landlocked.

 

[Midas]

Yeah theres that also, ironically he managed to make that a bigger problem than sea access, ethiopia will remain in huge debt for the next half century at least, but it was worth it tho look at Addis Ababa today, wlhi niyada iga jabta markan waxaan arko

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Yh I think that makes it even worse in a sense . Espcially since its not like the entire city is like that. I just cant see this ending well when you got this level of inequality shoved in people's faces.

Plus once you factor in that the imf reforms are likley gonna fail since the success rate of such reforms has always been low. You might see this stuff decay quickly.

 

[Midas]

This is very much the case, Abiy is too incompetent to utilize Ethiopias's natural resources and massive population. Other landlocked countries like Hungary and Kazakhstan have GDPs much bigger than Ethiopia so there isn't any excuse for Abiy. Having a port only matters if you are trying to be a regional power, otherwise you can still theoretically have a strong economy even while being landlocked.

I wouldn't necessarily put all the blame on him. Ethiopia's biggest probelm isnt being landlocked its that its a mountainous country. Mountainous countries are generally speaking incredibly poor and development is very hard.

When you combine this with a massive pouplation of 100 million + and no nearby large economies to trade with. Then you begin to grasp the scale of the challenge Ethiopia faces. Especially now that were entering an era of low global economic growth.

 

[Zak12]

I wouldn't necessarily put all the blame on him. Ethiopia's biggest probelm isnt being landlocked its that its a mountainous country. Mountainous countries are generally speaking incredibly poor and development is very hard.

When you combine this with a massive pouplation of 100 million + and no nearby large economies to trade with. Then you begin to grasp the scale of the challenge Ethiopia faces. Especially now that were entering an era of low global economic growth.

You are right, Abiy's predecessors also failed to properly stimulate economic growth and develop the nation. Ethiopia has geographic challenges but there was still plenty of opportunities and chances, especially when it had the unconditional support of the west (and briefly the USSR) from the 1950s-2010s

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Yh I think that makes it even worse in a sense . Espcially since its not like the entire city is like that. I just cant see this ending well when you got this level of inequality shoved in people's faces.

Plus once you factor in that the imf reforms are likley gonna fail since the success rate of such reforms has always been low. You might see this stuff decay quickly.

The point of IMF 'reform' is actually to 'smash' the public sector and 'grab' the private sector (including newly privatized things). We saw this happen in Somalia, for example.

Basically it's blind robbery that only really benefits the comprador-bourgeoise of 3rd world countries and the bourgeoise in the 1st world. my prediction is that this will be a bad thing for Ethiopia, especially for quality of life. Exports and imports probably will rise due to IMF sponsored 'free' trade, which is again the main byproduct of smashing and grabbing across and entire economy.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Its funny seeing Abiy think he's the African Putin. He invades, gets Ethiopia caught in yet another costly war which leads to international condemnation and sanctions and Ethiopia's economy goes further down the toilet. He is a basket case.

I think Eritrea will lose at least a small part of Southern Eritrea

 

[Barkhadle1520]

You are right, Abiy's predecessors also failed to properly stimulate economic growth and develop the nation. Ethiopia has geographic challenges but there was still plenty of opportunities and chances, especially when it had the unconditional support of the west (and briefly the USSR) from the 1950s-2010s

No actually TPLF were the best thing that happened to Ethiopia, before them Ethiopia was as poor as South Sudan their GDP per capita was around 500 usd and Addis really looked like any other under developed sub saharan city

Derg was only good at making war and killing people, they were the worst thing that happened to the Ethiopian economy

 

[Zak12]

I think Eritrea will lose at least a small part of Southern Eritrea

At best I could see Ethiopia occupying a part of Eritrea but I doubt its going to last long.

No actually TPLF were the best thing that happened to Ethiopia, before them Ethiopia was as poor as South Sudan their GDP per capita was around 500 usd and Addis really looked like any other under developed sub saharan city

Derg was only good at making war and killing people, they were the worst thing that happened to the Ethiopian economy

Just goes to show how low the standards are in Ethiopia when an otherwise crappy regime is slightly better than previous ones because they made the capital look prettier.

 

[Midas]

I think you shouldn't underestimate eritrea becuase while their pouplation is small theyre entire society is basically setup so they can mobilize as many people as possible for a war with Ethiopia

Wheras Ethiopia now Ethiopia doesn't even have full control over its army and it probably can't even recruit people like they use to becuase of lack of control over the amahra and oromoa regions.

Do you guys also realize there are still eritrean soliders in the tigray region who haven't left

 

[Barkhadle1520]

At best I could see Ethiopia occupying a part of Eritrea but I doubt its going to last long.

Its not 91 anymore Abiy is really modernizing the Ethiopian Army, if they manage to get a foothold in Assab theres no way Eritreans manage to get them out, its a really small strip of land very easily defendable if they take it but we'll see what happens

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Its not 91 anymore Abiy is really modernizing the Ethiopian Army, if they manage to get a foothold in Assab theres no way Eritreans manage to get them out, its a really small strip of land very easily defendable if they take it but we'll see what happens

If Ethiopia invades Assab why would Eritrea just not steamroll Tigray (which still holds extreme animosity to the ENDF, no resistance for Eritrea here) while Northern Command is fighting a 2 front war against Eritrea and FANO? Then after that why would they not just arm FANO and the Wollo OLA, and then capture Amhara? From there, the Wollega OLA would probably capture Wollega with Eritrean assistance, the Eritreans and their allies could also easily jeopardize Ethiopian supply lines in the Afar region, and cause Addis to sue for peace- half of Xabash is in revolt or occupied while the road to Assab might be severed.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

If Ethiopia invades Assab why would Eritrea just not steamroll Tigray

Yeah great idea invade Tigray while EDF is conquering the south, dont know how that makes sense

TPLF has been arming itself since the 70s, they literally nearly destroyed the current government and were a few kms from Addis, it would not only be a losing war but in the end Abiy would win, makes no sense

Fano isnt waging a war its guerilla warfare, theyre poorly armed disunited rebels

 

[zeila2wajir]

“Surrounded by worse neighbours like Eritrea and Somalia” firstly, who’s fault is it that the relations between Ethiopia and their neighbours is bad? Somalia and Eritrea get along great so clearly they’re the problem. Secondly, it’s not the neighbourhood, it’s the people. The UAE and the rest of the khaleeji countries (bar Yemen) for example are in arguably the worst neighbourhood in the world currently (MENA) with half the countries there in a permanent state of war or crisis. Yet they have built beautiful countries that everyone wants to migrate to and work at.

 

[SpaceyCadet]

They are lmao

Its destroying their whole economy

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where are you getting the 2bn ? if you’re getting it from the same ethiopian think tanks then it is fake news to hide from how much they pocket from their own people.

Approximately 87 percent of merchandise handled in Djibouti’s ports consists of onward transit and re-exports to Ethiopia,1 which generate annual revenues of about US$400 million from port fees alone.(worldbank)

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^this is from trade.gov

 

[SpaceyCadet]

If Ethiopia invades Assab why would Eritrea just not steamroll Tigray (which still holds extreme animosity to the ENDF, no resistance for Eritrea here) while Northern Command is fighting a 2 front war against Eritrea and FANO? Then after that why would they not just arm FANO and the Wollo OLA, and then capture Amhara? From there, the Wollega OLA would probably capture Wollega with Eritrean assistance, the Eritreans and their allies could also easily jeopardize Ethiopian supply lines in the Afar region, and cause Addis to sue for peace- half of Xabash is in revolt or occupied while the road to Assab might be severed.

TPLF heads have been interacting with Eritrea lately and calling for more tsmido but there is real evidence they have been collaborating beyond that too.

TPLF has been arming itself since the 70s, they literally nearly destroyed the current government and were a few kms from Addis, it would not only be a losing war but in the end Abiy would win, makes no sense

Fano isnt waging a war its guerilla warfare, theyre poorly armed disunited rebels

the first point just makes no sense. What realities are we discussing where tplf steamrolled past amhara and edf to addis and the EDF had to self-dissolve it’s sovereignty to get backup to curb them?

second point may have made sense 2 years ago but where are you seeing poorly armed? The recent activities in both amhara shows they are getting armament to counter ethiopias new drone capabilities.

Btw amhara region is quite mountainous and if history shows guerrilla insurgents do very well. See houthis.

No actually TPLF were the best thing that happened to Ethiopia, before them Ethiopia was as poor as South Sudan their GDP per capita was around 500 usd and Addis really looked like any other under developed sub saharan city

Derg was only good at making war and killing people, they were the worst thing that happened to the Ethiopian economy

Ethiopias economy is significantly better than it was during tplf, tplf significantly outperformed derg and derg outperformed haile monarchy. It was not some smart plays, the smart plays came in regional politics.

The tplf were cunning and they did what was expected, they siphoned the economical output to tigray. The derg utilised it for warfare and PP has been riding off economical growth that comes with a dirt poor population.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

second point may have made sense 2 years ago but where are you seeing poorly armed? The recent activities in both amhara shows they are getting armament to counter ethiopias new drone capabilities.

Btw amhara region is quite mountainous and if history shows guerrilla insurgents do very well. See houthis.

Yes its some dudes with AKS, nothing too crazy, never even seen one RPG in any footage, its probably hard to import guns all the way up those highlands, all their stuff is probably captured from EDF

Ethiopias economy is significantly better than it was during tplf, tplf significantly outperformed derg and derg outperformed haile monarchy

Obviously it is, Abiy's Ethiopia just followed the growth, but with more debt

The tplf were cunning and they did what was expected, they siphoned the economical output to tigray. The derg utilised it for warfare and PP has been riding off economical growth that comes with a dirt poor population.

Been, if that was the case you'd see pretty roads and skyscrapers in Tigray not Addis

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Been, if that was the case you'd see pretty roads and skyscrapers in Tigray not Addis

Ahem

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Ahem
View attachment 375348

Hmmmm
Maybe I was wrong, when is this from ? was most of it destroyed during the Tigray war ? Theres barely anything there now

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Hmmmm
Maybe I was wrong, when is this from ? was most of it destroyed during the Tigray war ? Theres barely anything there now

From here: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/afri...-spatial-development-show-in-ethiopia-part-ii

Also I do not think they were destroyed in the war, as by the time the ENDF captured most of Tigray the TPLF was already weakened so much that heavy fighting did not happen.

The people have suffered immensely but infrastructure has not it seems