EUROPE FREEZES SYRIA ASYLUM CLAIMS!

[AbrahamFreedom]

I got a leak that Trudeau will be stopping all asylum claims, not just Syria. It should be reported in the coming days or weeks. Finally, some great news.

 

[Idilinaa]

This is the type of scene i want to see when Alshabaab is finally defeated and routed out @Midas

Discplaced people returning to their homes

 

[TheLand]

Spoiler

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Why do you think Erdogan has been so supportive of the rebels?

 

[Midas]

This is the type of scene i want to see when Alshabaab is finally defeated and routed out @Midas

Discplaced people returning to their homes

Hh i wish. Unfortunately I suspect we will really start to see this kind of return only when the somali economy really starts booming.

My prediction is that over the next 5 years wether is farmajo or some other guy gets elected th trend of accelerating major reforms. By 2030 I suspect will start to see the first trickle of oil revenues it won't be too crazy . Likley a few billion dollars a year. But that's when i think we'll start seeing double digit growth number . We could be at 3k-4k gdp per capita by 2040.

 

[AppleBoat398]

Hh i wish. Unfortunately I suspect we will really start to see this kind of return only when the somali economy really starts booming.

My prediction is that over the next 5 years wether is farmajo or some other guy gets elected th trend of accelerating major reforms. By 2030 I suspect will start to see the first trickle of oil revenues it won't be too crazy . Likley a few billion dollars a year. But that's when i think we'll start seeing double digit growth number . We could be at 3k-4k gdp per capita by 2040.

You are in dream land pal

 

[AppleBoat398]

They are halting it because the situation in Syria is uncertain at the moment. So they don't really know under what pretense they will be granted asylum and how they are arriving.

It will be good thing for Syrians to return, they need that human capital back.

What if they don't want to go back?

 

[peterpeter]

What makes you think they won't come after other ethnic groups?

Midas gets it

I dont disagree I'm just saying 2013-2015 was also a litmus test for a more liberal future and now we have this

 

[Midas]

You are in dream land pal

I honestly don't think anything I'm saying is too crazy. Considering that turkey will likely fund he oil operation in the beginning and 3-5 years is how fast the last few countries who have discovered oil have been able to produce it.

I'm betting on the fact that hsm will somehow defy the odds and succeed in taking down ahmed madobe. And if he does succeed then that will set a precedent for future president's that they have the ability to reign in other fms. A lot of people on this forum have this tendency to think that the somali political landscape is somehow permanent. But that's not how politics work.

 

[Hotchick12]

This is the type of scene i want to see when Alshabaab is finally defeated and routed out @Midas

Discplaced people returning to their homes

no offence but somalia have been in the west for decades maybe the ones who grown up in somalia will go back but not the children accustomed to first world

 

[Hotchick12]

What if they don't want to go back?

i have seen syria it’s hella better looking than somaliland

 

[Hotchick12]

the refugees in somaliland are running to go back as of now

 

[Idilinaa]

Hh i wish. Unfortunately I suspect we will really start to see this kind of return only when the somali economy really starts booming.

My prediction is that over the next 5 years wether is farmajo or some other guy gets elected th trend of accelerating major reforms. By 2030 I suspect will start to see the first trickle of oil revenues it won't be too crazy . Likley a few billion dollars a year. But that's when i think we'll start seeing double digit growth number . We could be at 3k-4k gdp per capita by 2040.

no offence but somalia have been in the west for decades maybe the ones who grown up in somalia will go back but not the children accustomed to first world

I was not talking about Somalis in the west/diaspora returning. I am talking about displaced people inside Somalia or across the ogaden/nfd border returning to their homes. Most of them are displaced from Southern Somalia.

Those are the types that was seen in the Syrian twitter video returning, its internally displaced syrians and those who temporary fled across the border in IDPS and they are going back to their real homes.

But yeah Midas is right, Somalis will probably return in two seperate batches, first when the safety/security is reinstated when Alshabaab is taken out from Southern part and then 2nd in greater number when the economy is booming and increased investment opportunities.
I'm more optimistic, i believe Somalia can easily be a high middle income within 10 years time without the oil and gas, the major constraint of debt is eliminated so it free's Somalia up economically.

I think the greater example that most Somalis will return is to look at Korean/Japan returnee numbers after cold war/world war 2 from America and balkan/yugoslavia conflict 1.5-2million returned by the early 2000s , after a decade.

So i am betting that potentially 1 million will return and only a fraction will remain.

 

[Midas]

I was not talking about Somalis in the west/diaspora returning. I am talking about displaced people inside Somalia or across the ogaden/nfd border returning to their homes. Most of them are displaced from Southern Somalia.

Those are the types that was seen in the Syrian twitter video returning, its internally displaced syrians and those who temporary fled across the border in IDPS and they are going back to their real homes.

But yeah Midas is right, Somalis will probably return in two seperate batches, first when the safety/security is reinstated when Alshabaab is taken out from Southern part and then 2nd in greater number when the economy is booming and increased investment opportunities.
I'm more optimistic, i believe Somalia can easily be a high middle income within 10 years time without the oil and gas, the major constraint of debt is eliminated so it free's Somalia up economically.

I think the greater example that most Somalis will return is to look at Korean/Japan returnee numbers after cold war/world war 2 from America and balkan/yugoslavia conflict 1.5-2million returned by the early 2000s , after a decade.

So i am betting that potentially 1 million will return and only a fraction will remain.

I'm honestly curious how do you think we would have been able to become a high middle income country without oil? I'll confess the only reason I'm pretty confident that we'll get there is that we'll get oil money. I think without it somalia coukd get decent growth. But not to the level where we could reach high middle income with a decade.

 

[Spongebob]

I'm honestly curious how do you think we would have been able to become a high middle income country without oil? I'll confess the only reason I'm pretty confident that we'll get there is that we'll get oil money. I think without it somalia coukd get decent growth. But not to the level where we could reach high middle income with a decade.

Two types of ways that economic prosperity could come, that I know of:

Agriculture and industry.

For the parts of Somalia that are more green and therefore more better for farming, those could be our agricultural centres, where the food for the people is made.

In more arid environments, we could speed up industrialization via education, infrastructure building, and etc.

We could also do river projects and make more rivers into Somalia.

We could terraform Somalia as well.

Of course this will need money, and oil money would help with this. That being said this can still be achieved without oil, but the fruits of the labour would be lesser, but still good.

 

[NidarNidar]

They’re talking about non-citizens. No Syrian with citizenship is being asked to leave.

I doubt they’ll let even recently arrived doctors and nurses leave. The EU and US typically favour those who are already highly educated. Rather than relying solely on the slow process of nurturing talent through adopting families and waiting for these children to enter the workforce, they seem to be addressing long-term population decline by taking a shortcut, poaching skilled professionals directly from war-torn countries.

 

[Idilinaa]

Two types of ways that economic prosperity could come, that I know of:

Agriculture and industry.

For the parts of Somalia that are more green and therefore more better for farming, those could be our agricultural centres, where the food for the people is made.

In more arid environments, we could speed up industrialization via education, infrastructure building, and etc.

We could also do river projects and make more rivers into Somalia.

We could terraform Somalia as well.

Of course this will need money, and oil money would help with this. That being said this can still be achieved without oil, but the fruits of the labour would be lesser, but still good.

I'm honestly curious how do you think we would have been able to become a high middle income country without oil? I'll confess the only reason I'm pretty confident that we'll get there is that we'll get oil money. I think without it somalia coukd get decent growth. But not to the level where we could reach high middle income with a decade.

Somalia could also gain substantial wealth through strategic trade and through mining minerals. Substantial amount of wealth Isreal and Australia get is through mining that has made them rich.

Puntland alone has a lot natural resources that can generate wealth , the oil and gas resources is just a drop in the bucket.

 

[Aurelian]

This was the pic of roads leading to Damascus, a day after Bashar fled syria. Syrians will gladly get out from countries like Lebanon, Turkey, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, etc back to Syria. I don't know about the rest.